BNP Paribas Open Betting: Mannarino can test Murray in desert battle

Mannarino can make life tough for Murray on Wednesday

Andy Murray looks to try and book his place in the last eight at Indian Wells on Wednesday and Sean Calvert expects the Scot to have a tricky time of it against Adrian Mannarino.

There was disappointment and frustration in the desert on Tuesday when one of my wagers fell by a single game and the other fell apart after a decent start.

Michael Berrer only needed to hold serve to land the overs against Gilles Simon after saving a bunch of match points previously, but he was broken easily by the Frenchman.

And Roberto Bautista-Agut took the opener against Jack Sock before fading badly against the portly American, who goes on to face Roger Federer tonight.

Andy Murray's chances of easing into the quarter finals today look very good indeed going on his records against left-handers and Frenchmen.

The former Wimbledon champion has only ever lost to three lefties not named Rafael Nadal (Donald Young, Fernando Verdasco and Thomaz Bellucci) and his overall record reads 60-18 - or 55-3 if you discount Rafa.

Against Frenchmen Murray is 71-15 and he's never lost to a left-hander from across the Channel so far in his career at main level.

So, that's what Adrian Mannarino is up against in his first ever match in the last-16 of a Masters 1000 event.

The pair have never met, but it's perhaps a good time for Mannarino to face Murray for the first time at a tournament that is not easy for any of the players in the wildly varying conditions.

Mannarino is having the best season of his career and much of that can be credited to Eric Prodon, who has instilled a better work ethic into the formerly lazy Frenchman.

The 26-year-old will rise to a worst of a career high 31 in next week's rankings and the 11am local time (6pm UK) probably won't be to Murray's liking, although it is set to be a little cooler on Wednesday.

Mannarino is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and the +5.5 games on him appeals here at 1.910/11, with the Frenchman having lost only twice by that margin or more in a best of three since the French Open last spring.

Having never played each other before the 7-5 correct score in set one to Murray at 13.012/1 appeals as a big priced punt, with the Scot not really knowing what to expect from his opponent.

Interestingly, Murray has never won a match at Indian Wells against a leftie in straight sets, with two losses from four matches (Young and Nadal) and two final set wins (Jiri Vesely and Jurgen Melzer).

Elsewhere on Wednesday I fancy taking on Nadal to some degree with Simon, who having played a leftie yesterday, should be in the zone to have another crack at the Spaniard.

Gillou played pretty well for the most part against Berrer in what should have been a trickier match than it turned out to be, while Nadal was really poor despite the scoreline of his win over Donald Young. Rafa and The Don were both miles below their respective bests and a repeat from the Spaniard today may see Simon win, but a safer wager is the Handicap (betting with the Sportsbook).

The Frenchman played some great, aggressive tennis against Rafa when they met on clay in Rome last year and he's always been competitive in their best-of-three set matches.

Conditions here do suit Rafa and he has to be a good favourite tonight, but he has only won one match against a top-20 opponent since the French Open last year and he'll need a big improvement to win by five games.

So, the +4.5 game handicap wager on Simon looks the best of the rest at around 1.9420/21.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Murray to win set one 7-5 at 13.012/1
Back Mannarino +5.5 games at 1.910/11
Back Simon +4.5 games @ 1.910/11