This clay court tennis betting strategy article focuses on the differing court conditions across the schedule, and the records of strong return players on clay, to identify betting opportunities.
With the ATP & WTA tennis schedule moving from hard court to clay court tennis bettors should be aware of the differences.
Clay events have very different characteristics to the harder surfaces, with fewer service holds, fewer aces and generally much longer rallies. Clay matches are arguably a stronger test of a player’s fitness level than other surfaces.
The table below illustrates the significant difference in service hold percentage and aces per game between clay courts and other surfaces:
Surface
2 Year mean service hold %
2 Year mean aces per game
ATP
Clay
75.7
0.35
Hard
79.4
0.55
Indoor Hard
80.8
0.58
Grass
83.6
0.65
WTA
Clay
61.9
0.19
Hard
63.8
0.25
Indoor Hard
63.1
0.26
Grass
69.6
0.31
With the difference so evident in the table above, the following table highlights the court speed of each ATP & WTA event for the clay court schedule in 2015 (sorted from fast to slow):
ATP Tournament
Category
2 Year Serivce Hold %
Deviation from Clay Mean %
Madrid
1000
80.2
4.5
Gstaad
250
78.6
2.9
Munich
250
78.2
2.5
Rome
1000
77.7
2
Houston
250
76.6
0.9
French Open
Grand Slam
76.4
0.7
Nice
250
75.5
-0.2
Barcelona
500
74.7
-1
Bucharest
250
74.6
-1.1
Kitzbuhel
250
74.2
-1.5
Hamburg
500
73.5
-2.2
Bastad
250
73.2
-2.5
Casablanca
250
72.4
-3.3
Monte Carlo
1000
72.1
-3.6
Oeiras
250
71.1
-4.6
Umag
250
70.9
-4.8
Bettors should use this information in conjunction with this previous article, which looks at court data for fast and slow courts.
What the clay court data suggests
Interestingly the Madrid Masters/Premier - one of the biggest events on the clay calendar – appears at the top of both the ATP and WTA Tour and clearly has very fast conditions, which is likely to suit bigger servers. It will almost certainly not play as a traditional clay court.
Conversely, Bastad has low service hold percentages for both Tours, and conditions in Sweden appear to be very slow indeed. This is also the case for both clay events in Morocco (ATP Casablanca and WTA Marrakech). These events will favour the traditional clay courters.
ATP Gstaad - played at altitude - unsurprisingly shows up as a fast court, although surprisingly Kitzbuhel - which is also played well above sea level - does not.
How strong ATP & WTA returners perform on clay
Particularly in the ATP, certain players have a strong preference towards clay or hard surfaces, which results in a big difference in their results between the two surfaces.
We identified in previous articles how to tell a player who is stronger on return than serve by using the formula (service hold % - break opponent %), with lower figures indicating the player is strong on return.
From our list of the top ten ATP strong returners, only Matt Ebden isn’t considered close to a clay-courter – meaning the list highlights players who favour clay courts.
In comparison the WTA list is far less biased towards clay-courters, and only Chanelle Scheepers, Sara Errani, Estrella Cabeza Candela and Lourdes Dominguez Lino would be considered much better on the dirt.
The table below illustrates the records of strong ATP and WTA returners on clay in their last 50 matches on the surface, with Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices being used from a £100 hypothetical bet on each players’ match:
Player
Last 50 Clay Matches
Wins
Win %
P/L
ROI
Andujar
50
28
56
446
9.5
Monaco
50
29
58
-453
-9.2
Lorenzi
50
26
52
-741
-16.5
Fognini
50
35
70
1073
21.9
Ferrer
50
39
78
345
7.2
Berlocq
50
32
64
1018
20.8
Ebden
23
6
26
-1075
-71.7
Falla
50
25
50
-761
-16.9
Garcia-Lopez
50
30
60
1444
28.9
Gabashvili
50
31
62
1914
40.7
ATP Returners
473
281
59
3210
6.8
Beck
50
30
60
-836
-16.7
Scheepers
50
28
56
354
7.1
Errani
50
39
78
378
13.1
Radwanska U
50
19
38
-64
-1.7
Hsieh
50
23
46
-574
-27.3
Dolonc
50
24
48
146
5.6
Cabeza Candela
50
27
54
-636
-20.5
Niculescu
50
24
48
-466
-12.6
Koukalova
50
26
52
-868
-18.1
Dominguez Lino
50
33
66
354
7.5
WTA Returners
500
273
55
-2212
-4.4
It’s clear that ATP strong returners have an edge on clay, returning 6.8% from 473 matches. And If we filter out Ebden, who was identified as a player who doesn’t favour clay courts, this increased to 9.5%.
On this basis, it appears that the markets are under-rating ATP clay courters who are strong on return.
The WTA players list is much more random, and the betting success evident in the ATP is not replicated on the women’s tour.
However, of the four women’s clay courters previously identified, three - Sara Errani, Lourdes Dominguez Lino and Chanelle Scheepers - were the most profitable from the sample.
Even when including Estrella Cabeza Candela - who has dropped to 300 in the world - they generated a return of investment of 2.25%.
Clay Court betting strategy
The data indicates that clay courters whose strength lies on return are clearly under-rated by the pre-match betting markets and bettors should factor this into their decision making in subsequent clay court tournaments this year.
In addition, tennis bettors should take notice of the differing clay court conditions and note certain events fluctuate quite dramatically from the clay court mean.
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