BNP Paribas Open Betting: Johnson to win serving contest against Karlovic

Local hope Johnson can get the better of Karlovic on Sunday

Round two completes at the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday and with Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and Stan Wawrinka all in action today Sean Calvert gives us the lowdown on the best bets...

There was scant reward again on Saturday in California when two of my back-to-lay bets traded shorter but fell just short of the mark.

Firstly, Federico Delbonis threw in a shocker of a service game at 5-5 in set one against Kevin Anderson, which ruined my set one 7-6 to Anderson wager.

There hadn't looked like being a break in that one until the Argentine collapsed by producing a double fault and several cheap errors to hand Anderson the break on a silver platter with the predicted tie break within his grasp.

Incredibly, more bad fortune was to come when Ryan Harrison broke a woeful Kei Nishikori three times in the opening set and yet the American still failed to win it.

Harrison's serve let him down badly and he allowed an error-ridden Nishikori to take a set he barely deserved. Again, Harrison traded at 3.7511/4 from 5.59/2, but that one was annoying.

On the plus side, those on the overs and three sets in Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Thanasi Kokkinakis would have collected when that one went the distance and hopefully I put a few off backing the injured Julien Benneteau, whose struggles with a groin problem continue.

We start at 6pm UK time again on Sunday and favourite backers will look to Federer, Tomas Berdych, Nadal and Wawrinka to deliver, with all four surely unlikely to lose.

My outright pick of Wawrinka is often slow to start though and Robin Haase may cause the Swiss one or two early problems and the over 20.5 total games is tempting in that one.

But I prefer the idea of siding with Californian Stevie Johnson, who can continue the poor recent record here of Ivo Karlovic at a tempting 2.285/4.

Johnson looked good in an impressive round one win over Marcel Granollers and with Karlovic having won just two matches here since 2011 I'm happy to side with the local player.

The world number 44 from Orange, California has beaten Dr Ivo in two of their three meetings and he'll be keen to chalk up another after losing to eventual titlist Karlovic at Delray Beach last month.

It'll be a serving contest, but for me, neither Indian Wells or Miami really suit Karlovic and he may well be less than enthusiastic about this section of the tour having played a lot of tennis of late.

Fellow American Jack Sock is another underdog who could well win when he takes on Gilles Muller, who has won one match here since 2005 and was beaten by Paulo Lorenzi a year ago.

I'm also tempted by Jeremy Chardy, who looks decent value against Donald Young, but the Frenchman hasn't beaten a top-50 player here since 2009.

So, instead it's a choice between the 1.51/2 on Grigor Dimitrov to beat Nick Kyrgios or a bigger priced punt on a tight match between Milos Raonic and Simone Bolelli.

Dimitrov is perhaps a shade short, so I prefer the three sets wager at 2.915/8 in Raonic/Bolelli, which starts at around 8pm UK time tonight.

The pair are familiar foes, with three meetings in the last 10 months and after Bolelli defeated the Canadian indoors in Marseille last month this is no easy starter for Raonic.

Milos was taken apart by Alex Dolgopolov here a year ago and as we've seen it's not that easy for big servers to make their mark at this tournament, but Bolelli has struggled here in the past too.

All three of their clashes have been tight and the three sets looks much better value than the 1.910/11 about over 22.5 games.

Recommended Bets
Back Johnson to beat Karlovic at 2.285/4
Back three sets in Raonic vs Bolelli at 2.915/8