BNP Paribas Open Betting: Tie breaks a touch of value on day three at Indian Wells

Anderson looks ripe for a tie break against Delbonis

It's been a tough few days for punters at Indian Wells and Sean Calvert is looking to strike back on Saturday, with three big-priced fancies in California...

The testing start to the tournament at the BNP Paribas Open continued on Friday and I'm glad that that opening round is out of the way.

It's been a tricky one for punters, with some big servers struggling and others prospering and that was the case again yesterday.

Jerzy Janowicz was beaten by diminutive Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, while Sam Querrey also lost (for the umpteenth time in his career from 1.011/100), but Jack Sock and Stevie Johnson won.

Sock's win was galling, as it cost me a bet in a poor showing from Yen-Hsun Lu, who was wildly inconsistent off the ground and served poorly against an opponent who hadn't played for months.

Saturday's options have a much better feel about them in terms of potential value and set one correct score wagers are on offer today in two matches in particular.

Tie breaks are scarcer here due to the conditions, but John Isner vs Jurgen Melzer and Federico Delbonis vs Kevin Anderson both look 7-6 candidates.

Isner is the obvious one, with seven of his last eight matches at Indian Wells involving at least one breaker and he's in such poor form off the ground that it's hard to see him beating Melzer comfortably.

Indeed, Melzer has beaten Isner in three of their four career clashes, but I can envisage a situation where his head will go if he's been dominating the opening set and he ends up going behind in a tie break.

Set one to Isner 7-6 is a 4.84/1 chance and Anderson 7-6 is a good price at 7.06/1 against Delbonis, who doesn't seem too fatigued from Davis Cup.

Delbonis has one of the lowest break ratios in the top level of the game with only 18 percent of return games won last year, while Anderson was on the same mark in 2014.

Unsurprisingly, their one career meeting finished 7-6, 7-6 to Anderson, and although this is on a hard court it's one that Delbonis can hold his own on - at least for a while.

Andy Murray is in action at around 10pm UK time tonight and it's a tricky one if Vasek Pospisil's suspect fitness holds up.

The oft-injured Canadian has had back, shoulder and knee issue of late, but if he is fit the +4.5 games on him appeals with Murray rarely producing his best at this venue.

I also quite like the set one to Ryan Harrison over Kei Nishikori at a tempting 5.59/2, with Nishikori struggling here at Indian Wells so far in his career and Harrison enjoying a good run of form again.

Kei is yet to beat a top-70 ranked opponent at Indian Wells and his lack of height isn't ideal, with tall players (over 5'10") winning here the last 16 years straight.

The Japanese should win this one, but I don't expect it to be easy, as their clash in Memphis last month wasn't, and those on Nishikori might look to the 2-1 win to him at 5.59/2 for much more value than his 1.111/9 quote.

The 'three sets' wager in Guillermo Garcia-Lopez against Thanasi Kokkinakis is a tempter, as is the over 22.5 total games in that one, with GGL a regular candidate for long matches, and these conditions should see that happen again in what looks a tight contest.

Elsewhere, injury worries preclude me from backing Julien Benneteau and Pablo Cuevas today, while Marin Cilic is a risky proposition in his first match back after months out injured.

The over 21.5 total games looks decent in the Ernests Gulbis/Daniel Gimeno-Traver clash and Tim Smyczek could give Philipp Kohlschreiber a few problems in their meeting.

Novak Djokovic faces what will surely be an up for it Marcos Baghdatis in the early hours and it could be worth chancing Baggy to take that one over the 18.5 total games mark.

Recommended Bets (back-to-lay)
Back Isner to win set one 7-6 at 4.84/1
Back Anderson to win set one 7-6 at 7.06/1
Back Harrison to win set one vs Nishikori at 5.59/2