BNP Paribas Open Betting: Murray to get the better of Lopez again

Murray should ease past Lopez again on Thursday

The quarter finals of the 2015 BNP Paribas Open begin at Indian Wells on Thursday and Sean Calvert previews Andy Murray's last eight clash with Feli Lopez...

We had a spot of bad luck on Wednesday when Adrian Mannarino failed to get the job done in either of my two wagers concerning his match with Andy Murray.

The Frenchman was looking decent at a break up at *3-2 in set one with my 13.012/1 punt on Murray to win it 7-5 a distinct possibility at that stage before Mannarino lost four straight games and the set.

Then he failed to cover the +5.5 game handicap by a couple of points after one woeful drop shot in what turned out to be the final game of the match.

That was before a puzzling performance from Gilles Simon, who looked very much out of sorts against an improved, but far from peak, Rafael Nadal.

Elsewhere, there was disappointment for John Isner outright backers, as the American, who was certainly not helped by the night time scheduling of the match, was beaten by Novak Djokovic.

The peculiar scheduling of this tournament means that only two of the four men's quarter finals are on the card for today, while all eight of the fourth rounds were on yesterday.

Murray plays in the heat of the day again on Thursday, with a 1pm local time (8pm UK) start against old foe Feli Lopez, who took down Kei Nishikori yesterday.

Nishikori's loss was no real surprise considering how poorly he's played here both this week and in previous years, but Lopez has made the quarters for the first ever time with that win.

Even the likes of Roger Federer are commenting on how hard it is to play at this venue and if the GOAT is struggling what chance have we the poor old punters?

Murray is a 1.162/13 shot to record his 11th win over Lopez in all competitions, with their exhibition meeting in Abu Dhabi this January their most recent clash. Prior to that it was Miami last season when they last clashed in a tournament proper.

Much of this one will hinge upon how well the Spanish lefty serves and as I mentioned yesterday Murray rarely loses to lefties (Rafa apart) - regardless of how well they serve.

This is largely due to the lefty cross court forehand going into Murray's rock solid backhand wing and on this slow surface I find it hard to see how Lopez can score in the neutral rallies.

Lopez said after the Nishikori win that he was "hitting great for the first time at Indian Wells," which shows how hard it is to play here, as he's been playing this tournament since 2003.

His backhand slice is fairly effective here, but against a clever opponent like Murray it hasn't been enough and the Scot always works out a way to win whatever the conditions against Lopez.

The 2-0 to Murray is a viable wager here at around 1.558/15 with Lopez having won only one set from the Scot in their nine previous main level matches and I don't see a tie break here either.

In the 201 completed sets here this week we've had only 32 tie breaks - or one every 6.28 sets of tennis - and as only six of this pair's 24 contested sets have gone to breakers the 1.625/8 about no tie breaks tonight looks decent.

Only one match of Murray's in the 11 he's played since Melbourne this season has featured a tie break and not surprisingly that was against Isner indoors in Davis Cup.

Murray has too much in his locker to be beaten by Lopez unless he has a nightmare day (which is possible of course) and Murray breaks the Spaniard between two and five times each time they play.

Either the 2-0 to Murray or the no tie breaks look the best options here.

Recommended Bet
Back no tie breaks at 1.625/8