BNP Paribas Open Betting: Back Murray to start fast in Djokovic semi

Can Murray start well against Djokovic on Saturday?

The semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open are in play on Saturday, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic going to head-to-head again, and Sean Calvert fancies an odds-against shot today...

Friday's wager never had a chance of success after a handful of games played by Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych at Indian Wells revealed an in-form Fed and a woeful Berdy.

The Swiss maestro handed out a second set bagel in a 6-3, 6-0 thrashing that few could have predicted and he moves forward to face Milos Raonic in today's second semi.

Raonic saved several match points to stave off a straight sets defeat against Rafa Nadal to emerge the winner of a near-three-hour marathon.

We start at 6pm UK time on Saturday and that in itself could provide an opportunity to side with Andy Murray to start out fast against Novak Djokovic in their 25th career meeting.

Djokovic has played all of his matches at night so far this week and this is one venue on the tour where conditions are totally different later in the day than earlier and it may take the Serb some time to adjust.

We've seen this many times at tournaments that have day and night matches and Murray has played all of his matches in the day and most at 11am local time, which is when the pair clash on Saturday.

Djokovic also hasn't played since Wednesday after his quarter-final opponent Bernard Tomic withdrew and it makes sense to side with Murray early here, with the Scot starting strongly in his matches this week.

With the slight exception of the Adrian Mannarino match Murray has looked on it from the word go and there's enough in this to take a chance on him at a tempting 3.02/1.

Murray will also be very keen to get a win over Djokovic after the shambolic way that he folded against the Serb in the Australian Open final in January when he was affected by his opponent's antics across the net.

There might also be some needle in this one because of that and the resulting comments from Murray and in a best-of-three battle there will be less emphasis on stamina.

Djokovic has to be a worthy favourite, having won the last six in a row against Murray on outdoor hard and eight of the last nine on all surfaces.

Indeed, Murray's last win over the Serb was that Wimbledon title win of 2013 and he's certainly due one, but with that record I prefer the set one wager rather than the outright win at around 3.7511/4.

The world number one's performances this week are hard to evaluate, with a fine start over Marcos Baghdatis being followed by a very scratchy showing against Albert Ramos in which he was broken twice by the limited Spaniard.

Then came a tough win over the dangerous John Isner in a match that could easily have gone to a decider and I don't think the withdrawal of Tomic has really helped him, as this is one venue that takes some getting used to.

Murray was very good indeed against an opponent that's perfect for him in Feli Lopez and that match will have given him confidence that I expect him to take into this one - for a set at least.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray to win set one at 3.02/1