BNP Paribas Open Betting: Djokovic to get the better of Federer in three

Djokovic can gain revenge over Federer for his Dubai loss today

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic clash for the 38th time in the mouthwatering final of the 2015 BNP Paribas Open on Sunday and Sean Calvert brings us his best bets at Indian Wells...

Andy Murray proved once again how difficult he is to accurately predict with a dismal performance in the semi-finals at Indian Wells on Saturday.

A feeble showing from the Scot, which included a dreadful first serve percentage and a glut of weak, unforced errors allowed Novak Djokovic to have a very comfortable day of it indeed.

Murray wasn't remotely competitive for much of that match, but Roger Federer will surely give Djokovic his toughest test of the tournament so far and the prices seem to indicate that.

Djokovic is a 1.558/15 shot to beat Federer today, which is his biggest price on a hard court against the Swiss since this time a year ago when the pair clashed in the 2014 Indian Wells final.

That one went the way of Djokovic in a final set breaker and a similarly tight contest is expected today, with the slight edge going to the Serb in these slow conditions.

Djokovic won one more point than Federer in last year's final and those looking for a decent priced punt on Sunday night's 38th career meeting between the pair should look to the 2-1 win for Novak at around 4.03/1.

I like Federer in this match-up on fast hard courts and when he does beat Djokovic in a best-of-three he beats him well, covering a 3.5 game handicap in his last 10 wins over the Serb played in the first to two format.

But for me it's not fast enough here and the gritty surface allows Djokovic to get too many balls back in play that he wouldn't be able to in conditions like Dubai, Shanghai and Cincy, where Federer has enjoyed success over Djokovic.

On the slower hard courts Djokovic has held the upper hand and generally speaking the world number one has won the ones contested between he and Federer that have gone to a deciding third set.

He has won four of the last five times that they have gone to three sets - in Indian Wells 2014, World Tour Finals 2013, Paris Masters 2013, and Indian Wells 2011 and all of these are played on slow hard courts.

Fed's only 2-1 win over Djokovic since Basel back in 2010 came on a fast court in Dubai last season and the longer the match goes on the more I would favour Djokovic, but there isn't a great deal in it.

When Fed beats Novak he tends to do it quickly and decisively and I can't see that happening on Sunday, so the 2-1 win for the Serb looks like it should give us a run for our money at a decent price.

The three sets at 2.47/5 is one for shorter priced bettors and for a really big priced shout the 6-3 to Djokovic in set one appeals at 6.05/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic to beat Federer 2-1 at 4.03/1