Rosario Central should be celebrating another win come Sunday
Boasting an impressive profit so far this season, Ed Malyon delves back into the Argentine league for us in search of some value...
Lans vs Gimnasia La Plata
Saturday 00:10
A rare season spent battling on only one front means that Lans will probably see the start to their current campaign as a bit disappointing.
With most of their near rivals competing in the Copa Libertadores this season was a chance for Guillermo Barros Schelotto's impressive project to finally bear fruit in the form of silverware but a frustrating start to the campaign when they simply couldn't find the net - despite having a rock-solid backline - hamstrung them somewhat.
That all got blown out of the water with a 5-1 mauling of Godoy Cruz in Mendoza last week, but now they're playing catch up and need to build on the result, starting late on Friday night against Gimnasia.
Gimnasia have had a frustrating start too, but in a different way. They too felt a big release last week when they beat Nueva Chicago 2-1 in La Plata, but that was after having failed to beat any of their first four opponents. And in truth, their fixture list has been anything but challenging.
Yet to keep a clean sheet this season, the Lobo, 4.94/1, can be expected to struggle against a side that boasts a frontline proven at this level and the joint-best defence in the division.
Indeed, only two goals have found their way past Fernando Monetti in the five games since he joined the club from this week's opponents two months ago. That bodes well, and you feel Lucas Melano will be raring to get back out there again after netting FOUR goals last time out.
Lans are odds-on for this one but only just, and there's still enough juice there to tempt us on board considering this will be the biggest test Gimnasia have faced all season, and they're incredibly likely to fail it.
Recommended Bet
2pts Back Lans at 1.9720/21
Atletico Rafaela vs Rosario Central
Sunday 19:00
What you're about to read isn't the most complicated of working, but it's solid.
Rosario Central have started the season brilliantly, flying to the top of the table with five wins from five. The new campaign was always going to be a chance for them to take advantage of other clubs being distracted by the Copa Libertadores - as Lans, above, had hoped to - and they've done just that with a 100% start and the joint-best defence.
If we are looking for caveats, and we should always try, then you could argue that their fixture list hasn't been that testing since their opening day win against Racing. But to beat the reigning champions in their own back yard is not a feat to be ignored and even the subsequent game - a victory against Tigre - is a performance that stands up to scrutiny.
If you were to compare it to horse-racing form, Central have passed a grade 1 test and then won a few low-rent handicaps to boot.
And if we are to continue the nags analogy then Atletico Rafaela are on the turf, have screens erected around them and are facing the worst.
Rock bottom of a needlessly-inflated 30-team league and shorn of any player who pokes his head above the mediocre, it is not a good time to be Rafaela and their lowest ebb since promotion in 2011.
Delving deeper into their form paints an even grimmer picture. They've taken just one point from five games this season, a draw at home to Racing.
But while that may sound an impressive result, the defending champs were playing a second team due to their continental commitments and even their stiffs managed to salvage something from their trip north to Santa Fe province.
All in all, it bodes poorly for La Crema, whose nickname (the cream) rather ironically implies that they should be rising to the top.
That isn't likely to happen anytime soon, and Central should be, at worst, around evens. 2.447/5 is a great price and one we'll be taking advantage of in this top vs bottom mismatch.
Recommended Bet
3pts Back Central at 2.447/5
2015 P/L
Staked: 18pts
Returned: 26.33pts
P/L: +8.33pts
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий