Chelsea v Tottenham: Back Blues to exact revenge at Wembley

Paul expects Mourinho to be the happy manager at Wembley

The first major cup final of the season is upon us and Paul Robinson can't see past blue ribbons on the trophy once the final whistle is blown...

Chelsea v Tottenham
Sunday March 1, 16:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

This competition has been belittled in the Premier League era, but make no mistake, once it gets into the latter stages, each and every single team wants to win it. It was the first piece of silverware that Jose Mourinho won as Chelsea manager, and after only adding dust to the trophy cabinet last year, he will be desperate to be reunited with it again.

It won't be an easy ride though as Spurs are also hungry for success having not won anything since 2008, which incidentally was this competition and against Chelsea. They negotiated their way past Sheffield United in the semi-final and, after exiting the Europa League on Thursday night, Mauricio Pochettino will be even keener to pick up his first piece of silverware as a manager.

It is quite rare for a final to have both teams come into it without a recent victory, but that's the case here. The Blues have drawn their last two outings - a solid 1-1 at PSG and a bitterly disappointing 1-1 at home to Burnley.

Tottenham's wait for a victory has been even longer as they haven't won since a 2-1 success over Arsenal in the north London Derby. Since then it's been two defeats and two draws, although they haven't exactly faced easy assignments.

As far as the team news goes, as of writing, Chelsea are only without the suspended Nemanja Matic. His direct replacement, John Obi Mikel is just returning from injury so it will be interesting to see whether he comes straight back in or if Ramires gets the nod alongside Cesc Fabregas.

Tottenham have a clean bill of health, according to reports, and I expect Harry Kane, Kyle Walker, Danny Rose and Ryan Mason all to return having been left on the bench for the trip to Italy. Reserve keeper Michel Vorm has played in every game in this competition so far, but Spurs fans are hopeful than no1 Hugo Lloris gets the nod.

Match Odds
Chelsea 1.695/7 Tottenham 5.79/2 The Draw 4.1n/a

If you witnessed the 5-3 thrashing that Spurs handed out to Chelsea on New Year's Day you would be rushing to back the men from White Hart Lane at a tasty 5.79/2.

That was a freak result though and one that will make Mourinho and his players all the more motivated to exact their revenge. They are also a big match team, something which you can't really say about Spurs.

When the cameras are rolling and there's a big prize on the line, you can usually rest assured that the Premier League leaders will be at their best. You can't rely on their opponents to do the same though, and that, coupled with their extra class, make Chelsea a must bet to win inside 90 minutes.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.865/6 Under 2.5 Goals 2.1211/10

I am quite surprised that Under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the pair in this market. I certainly don't see a repeat of the gung-ho football that was played the last time these two met and Chelsea's defence are pretty miserly when they want to be.

Since their shock FA Cup exit, five of Chelsea's six outings would have seen Under 2.5 backers collect, with two of those seeing Under 1.5 backers following suit.

Tottenham's stats don't make as good reading for this bet but, with the north Londoners having played so much football recently, I expect Mourinho's men to dominate possession and do what they need to do to secure the victory.

Correct Score

I was toying between 1-0 and 2-0 to Chelsea in this market but I have plumped for the latter as it's a slightly bigger price. I just can't see Spurs scoring, despite the form of Harry Kane.

As previously mentioned, The Blues are a big game team and they can be relied upon to perform. They are desperate to win as much silverware as they can, so when they get ahead, they won't take too many risks. That's why 1-0 and 2-0 appeal, but if you don't fancy putting all your eggs in the 2-0 basket, then the pair can be dutched at around the 7/2 mark.

Best Cash Out opportunity

This is a final so I don't expect it to kick into top gear straightaway. The 0-0 half time correct score is currently available to back at odds of 3.39/4, and if the first 25 minutes or so go as planned, that should trade much shorter in-play. I would look to Cash Out at around the 35 minute mark when it will definitely be odds-on - assuming the game is still goalless of course.

Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to win @ 1.695/7
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1211/10
Back Chelsea to win 2-0 @ 9.617/2