Against All Odds: NOB and Velez to roll back the years

Ignacio Scocco netted 24 times in a season not too long ago

The week begins in Argentina for Paul Robinson and after tipping a clean sweep in yesterday's Capital One Cup final, he is in red-hot form.

Newell's Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield
Tuesday March 3, 00:10 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video

It was a much needed victory for Newell's Old Boys last weekend at Aldosivi as after a poor campaign last time around, they were beaten on the opening weekend of this one at home to Independiente.

After challenging for the title in recent years, 'La Lepra' could only finish in 12th place last term. The re-format of the league gives Gustavo Raggio's men the chance of a fresh start and if they can keep Maxi Rodriguez firing, anything is possible.

Ignacio Scocco was the league's top scorer not too long ago and while he hasn't hit those heights since his return to the club, I wouldn't write him off just yet.

That's why I always like opposing under 2.5 goals in Newells matches as they certainly have the firepower to score. Even during their recent struggles, their fixtures still averaged 2.37 goals each time, with five of their last eight seeing the net bulge three times or more.

Opponents, Velez Sarsfield, are of a similar mould as they could only finish in mid-table after being in the title picture. Miguel ngel Russo's side have begun 2015 in fine fashion though as two wins has given them a 100% record.

It is worth noting however that both of those victories came at home against newly promoted teams, and this will be a much sterner test for a defence that conceded four times on their previous visit to this ground.

I quite like the chance of goals here as there is plenty of quality on show. That's why, with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Newell's Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield @ 1.574/7

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 59 pts
Returned: 50.97 pts
P/L: - 8.03 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)