Davis Cup 2014 Betting: Big guns could struggle in World Group play-offs

Somdev Devvarman's India could be a tough test for weakened Serbia

After a very profitable US Open fortnight, tennis expert Sean Calvert is back to cast his eye over the weekend's Davis Cup World Group matches and he fancies at least one outsider to prevail...

The ATP World Tour takes a break in week 37 for the resumption of Davis Cup hostilities, with the World Group semi final and play offs set for this weekend.

From Friday to Sunday several of the top stars of the men's game will be in action, with the likes of Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic just some of the names representing their nations.

France are at home to the Czech Republic in one of the World Group semi finals, while Italy visit Switzerland in the other.

A typically strong French team featuring four players in the world's top-30 in singles has opted for outdoor clay in Paris, which is perhaps a little surprising given that the Czechs are comfortable on it too.

Perhaps they think that Tsonga and/or Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils are more likely to take down Berdych, Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol and Jiri Vesely on the slow dirt, but it seems an odd one to me.

The Czechs have played their best tennis in Davis Cup of late, having won the trophy for the last two seasons, but it looks like Stepanek is approaching the last knockings of his career and he may not play either singles.

On clay the power of Rosol may prove a better option in this 15th meeting between France and Czech Republic, with the score tied at 7-7 currently.

Over in Geneva the Swiss, unsurprisingly, have chosen indoor hard as their surface and conditions at the Palexpo on a Rebound Ace surface have been described by Italy's Andreas Seppi as "not too fast'" and "a good surface for us."

That's one thing in Italy's favour at least, but my early season outright tips have their work cut out now that both Federer and Wawrinka have made the journey back to Switzerland intact after the US Open.

Having downed a few of my bets last week Marin Cilic foiled me again by beating Federer and perhaps Roger wouldn't have made it here had he gone on to play a long match in the final in New York.

But here he is and although singles nominations Simone Bolelli and Fabio Fognini will be fresher they're much happier on clay and they'll have to hope that Wawrinka flops in front of his home fans again.

Stan has a very sketchy record in his home country, including a loss here at the Palexpo in the quarter finals to Andrey Golubev in four sets in April.

The last time that Wawrinka defeated a top-20 ranked player in Swizerland was David Nalbandian at the Swiss Indoors back in 2006 and indeed that is the only top-20 win he's had playing at home.

He'll do well to lose to either Bolelli or Fognini in these conditions, unless it's really slow, which seems unlikely, and he has won eight of the last nine matches against Seppi, which is probably why Italy opted for Bolelli.

Fognini is the obvious wild card here and this would be a really interesting tie on clay, but unless Fabio has a truly inspired weekend the Swiss will surely progress here.

There are some interesting ties in the play-offs, where a Serbia side without Novak Djokovic, Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki face India in Bangalore and this will be tough for the Serbs.

India have ace doubles pair Leander Paes and Rohan Bopanna teaming up for this one and Somdev Devvarman and Yuki Bhambri are decent and will give Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic a run for their money in singles.

Spain also face a testing trip to Brazil without Rafa Nadal, David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro and although they should still win it won't be easy if Thomaz Bellucci becomes inspired at altitude as he has in the past.

Bellucci and Rogerio Dutra Silva will get help from top doubles stars Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares against Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Andujar, Marc Lopez and David Marrero in what looks a test of the Spaniards' nerve.

Another big Davis Cup nation Argentina also face a tough trip - this time to the neutral venue of the Sunrise Club in Florida, USA after the original option of Israel playing at home was ruled too dangerous.

Israel chose this venue and they're not going to be pushovers for the Argentines, who are without Juan Martin Del Potro and instead rely on Leo Mayer and Carlos Berlocq in the singles.

Berlocq has said that the Sunrise surface is on the "quite quick, similar to the US Open," and this is one that could go down to the wire.

Israel have Dudi Sela plus a decent doubles pair in Jonathan Erlich and Andy Ram, but Amir Weintraub, who beat Blaz Kavcic in singles in the last round and who is a good performer in Davis Cup, has pulled out injured, which is a big blow for them.

As far as the best bets go, France look too short against the Czech Republic at 1.434/9 and as we already have Italy from earlier in the season it's hope for a bit of a miracle time with that one now.

Israel's loss of Weintraub has taken them out of my thoughts, but Brazil and India could cause major shocks - in terms of beating more illustrious rivals at least.

The market is still to form in the Spain/Brazil clash, but the 2.608/5 on India to overcome Serbia in tough conditions for the Serbs looks worth a bet.

Recommended Bet
Back India to beat Serbia at 2.608/5

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1097.00