Ted Knutson Q&A Transcript

Ted Knutson Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise Jun 12, 2014

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On June 11th, 27 hours before Rio 2014 kicked off, senior trader and leading soccer analyst Ted Knutson (Ted) took over our official @Pinnacle Sports Twitter account to answer your questions on World Cup, the use of analytics in soccer and everything else our followers could think of. Below, find a transcript (corrected for grammar, spelling and overall clarity) of what transpired:

Ted: Hey everyone, Ted here. Can’t believe we’re finally only a day away. Hit me with your questions! Let’s do this!

Q1. From @JonnyGrossmark: Will we see teams in the WC go into defensive “shells” when winning games by one goal or will they be open?

Ted: I would be shocked to see much openness at the World Cup. There might be a couple of teams–maybe Chile or Argentina– who will be fairly aggressive, but the heat plus the importance you just don’t see open play in these kinds of tournaments. It’s not that teams won’t maintain their style, but there’s a lot on the line and shelling is probably safe.

Q2: From @8_bakerboi_8: Surely Argentina 5.00 to win the tournament outright is less than the worse case net odds you would get just betting on Argentina post-group every game and rolling. Looking at all the different possible paths, I just don’t see enough scenarios where net odds less than 4-1.

Ted: I would say there are a lot of ways to find value and it depends on your betting approach. Some bettors have big series plays going in, then reevaluate as series unfold. I don’t like Argentina at those odds but wouldn’t be surprised if there was a better way to get on them.

Q3. From @joeflag: How much more difficult is pricing the WC compared to English Premier League due to lack of sample size and familiarity with teams?

Ted: It’s much harder for the first game. The difference is that the lines are up forever and so there’s time to get lots of opinions and have it settle down. The 3rd match is strange because of group dynamics.

Q4. From @Sand_Games: What is the best way to start building a model?

Ted: Find a really attractive girl #WeirdScience Unfortunately, explaining modelling and 140 characters just don’t work well together.

Q5. From @Jair1970: What one football result has caused the greatest collective sigh of relief in the trading room?

Ted: Two seasons ago, there was an EPL game where someone just hammered the moneyline. I think it was Manchester City-Newcastle? It ended as a draw and that was a good thing, because the alternative would have been VERY expensive.

Q6. From email: I saw you were surprised by how much World Cup betting you’ve seen. Didn’t you expect it to be huge?

Ted: Of course I expected it to be huge, however…it’s SO big, and so different than Premier League or Champions League. Bets roll in days and days ahead of time in amounts that seem crazy by comparison. It’s just a great thing to trade. I’m really excited about doing another one.

Q7. From email: How has this World Cup been different from 2010 from a betting perspective?

Ted: It’s less a betting perspective and more how much Pinnacle has changed. 2010 was the first World Cup since we really started to build the soccer product. This one, we’ve got 4 extra years experience. Live is more developed, the props… we’re a much more comprehensive place to bet than we were in 2010. I wouldn’t say we were dealing 2010 live by the seat of our pants, but it was a little more loose than it is nowJ

Q8. From @GoalImpact : Is the model uncertainty higher for World Cup bets than in usual league games?

Ted: Oh definitely. World Cup is a bitch to model, as you can see very publicly from what other places have tweeted out or modelled. Goldman, Nate Silver and a few others were using models that included data back to 1960… That doesn’t pass the common sense test.

Q9. From @SpiritofEden: Name an outsider for top goal-scorer, someone who may go under the. Radar

Ted: I like Edin Dzeko.

Q10. From @M0djadji: What’s your biggest bet taken & highest liability so far?

Ted: I actually don’t know… Biggest bet taken has to be on tomorrow’s match, for sure. Everything will change before tomorrow on liabilities, and by a lot. We probably don’t want Japan to win the World Cup:)

Q11.from @MConsty: During the domestic season how much football do you watch a day on average?

Ted: I watch about 6 full matches a week probably, plus highlight shows.

Q12. From @ddivecch: Who do you see following Brazil out of group A?

Ted: I think Croatia are hugely undervalued right now. They have one of the best centre backs in EPL their midfield has a UEL winner and a UCL winner and their forward options are pretty good as well.

Q13. From ltfc1972: Any large game bets yet? Heavy hitters especially.

Ted: We always get large bets:) Limits are $50,000 on BRA-CRO right now…our maximums are met far more often than not.

Pinnacle: they’ll get higher:)

Q14. From Jair1970: My experience is that punters love English Premier League & take or leave international football. Is the World Cup as big as the hype, betting wise?

Ted: Bigger. World Cup and Euro are a gift to sportsbooks every two years. We expect 2014 volume to be bigger than WC2010 and Euro 2012 combined

Q15. From @blackNteal: Group stages were tight (1.5 goals per game) in 2010 but 2006 was wide open. New ball? How do you expect 2014 to go?

Ted: I think there’s more quality at this World Cup than any I can remember. Smaller countries have gotten better. I think the worldwide scouting and teams always looking for players and opening of some borders, have all had a big effect.

Q16. From @Jembunao: Stat analysis in soccer is new as opposed to say, baseball. Any indicators that managers use them actively & how predictive is it?

Ted: In 140 characters?? That’s a whole website! I think here are definitely some managers who I’d say look analytically savvy. Sam Allardyce is one…there are others, but they don’t like to admit it. Predictivity is still something we’re looking at on many levels.

Q17. From @8_bakerboi_8: How do I get to be you Ted?

Ted: It’s hard. You have to be born handsome for one thing. Obviously funny too. Rich you can work on, but you need a little luck and a lot of hard work.

Q18. From @paul123pe: When do you think is the best time to place world cup bets get on early or wait to the last minute?

Ted: Certainly early. Lines get sharper as they get closer to post.

Q19. From @cabinet96: Biggest wins and losses you’ve seen on individual bets?

Ted: The Women’s Australian Open this year…won’t go into detail, but it was…wow.

Q20. From @Jair1970: As Liverpool fans loyally back their team each year, would Liverpool winning the EPL have been a *bad* thing?

Ted: Maybe for ManU fans:)

Q21. From @benjaminpugsley: Ask him why he hates Vincent Kompany so?

Ted: I didn’t used to… he’s been overhyped for a while:)

Q22. From @Jair1970: How much can the absence of a star player affect a game market (eg. Falcao, Messi, Ronaldo, Harry Kane)?

Ted: It can have a big impact, depending on who the player is. The market sometimes overreacts to a single player missing, but under-reacts to multiple players being gone.

Q23. From @paul123pe: What about games like Brazil-Croatia? Won’t big money on Brazil push Croatia’s price out for better value?

Ted: On a game-by-game basis, that’s possible. However, Croatia were -1.5 2.04 a week ago or so

**With our Tournament Totals contest ending on June 12th, we asked Ted a few questions to help those who hadn’t entered yet with some tough decisions:

Q24. From Pinnacle: Which will be the higher total: Total number of own-goals? Or # of goals scored by the Golden Boot winner?

Ted: Man, I don’t know if I’ve ever looked at own-goal totals. I’m not Opta! I think it’s a flat conflip. If I had to choose one I think own goals. But one big blowout could change all that.

Q25. From Pinnacle: Will there be more total goals scored by UEFA nations? Or total goals scored in the Group Stage?

Ted: There are 12-13 UEFA teams, right? I think it has to be the Group stage. There are just too many group stages matches for UEFA to overcome.

Q26. From Pinnacle: Will there be more total first half corners? Or second half corners?

Ted: Man, I don’t know! Second-half corners, I guess? That’s not what I study!

Ted: Thanks for everybody’s questions! This was fun. Enjoy the World Cup…it only comes once every four years!

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