Premier League Betting: Van Gaal still has a rocky road to travel

Luis van Gaal - success always takes him time

Manchester United's romp against Real Madrid has inspired much hope that the good times are already back to Old Trafford. Ralph Ellis says it will take longer for Louis van Gaal to succeed and sees a way of making a profit in the meantime.

The thing with Louis van Gaal is it always gets worse before it gets better. It happened at Ajax, it happened at Bayern, it happened at Barcelona. There's no doubt the domineering Dutchman is a brilliant manager, but his methods always take time to pay off.

That's why you have to be so careful before jumping on the Manchester United bandwagon on the strength of a few friendly wins in America.

Yes, I know, they aren't strictly friendlies.  They are playing for the International Champions Cup and there was a record crowd for a 'soccer' game of more than 109,000 to see them beat Real Madrid 3-1.

But even Manchester United's new manager was quick to point out afterwards that Real wouldn't wait until the 75th minute to bring Cristiano Ronaldo on as a sub if it really mattered. The bottom line is that, just as the Emirates Cup or the Community Shield is no real guide to the season to come, you daren't read too much into what's going on in America.

Judging by the early market it looks as if United will probably be about 2.56/4 favourites for the International Champions Cup final which winds up their US adventure when they face Liverpool in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Logic says to lay them because, unbeaten so far, they are still early in their preparation and must lose a game at some stage.

But even if I'm wrong and they win the game, what will really count is what happens in the first few months of the season, and that's where you dare not use a successful pre-season as a guide.

United have come in to big odds-on at just 1.538/15 to regain their Champions League status by achieving a top four finish. That is an absolute gift to lay now, with the object of trading to turn the market green after the first two months of the season.

Van Gaal started late at the job because of his World Cup commitments with Holland, and is still sorting out his side. He's said this weekend that he won't pick Robin Van Persie for the first weekend of the season - a guide to how he prefers to play the long game and not risk his top goalscorer's fitness for the sake of instant results.

He is clearly going to give young defender Michael Keane the opportunity to step up as Rio Ferdinand's replacement, which in turn will carry a risk.  It was Keane's mistake that gave Gareth Bale the chance to earn Madrid's only goal, and like any young player he will make more.

Van Gaal is reshaping a team which has lost the core of the defence which has won trophies for years. There will be no Ferdinand, no Nemanja Vidic, no Patrice Evra. And in the brutal world of the Premier League there will be things that go wrong while that is all settling down.

In his first season at Bayern Munich he won the Bundesliga, but in the Autumn he had come close to getting the sack while he was settling a new side. There are so many parallels with the job he has taken on now, and a bad start will cause just as much panic. Don't forget United finished SEVENTH last season and both Liverpool and Everton have been recruiting since - before you even begin to think about what Chelsea and Manchester City are capable of.

Van Gaal may well succeed but history says it will take him time. That gives us a brilliant chance to make a profit while he's getting there.