Liverpool v Southampton: Back the Reds to start the season with a bang

Brendan Rodgers needs his Liverpool team to kick on this season

Southampton head to Anfield for their first game of the season and Luke Moore doesn't fancy their chances much...

Liverpool v Southampton
Sunday August 17, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool

Entertaining all who watched them last season, the staff and players at Liverpool now know they need to kick on and give their fans something to show for all the progress that has been made. Trophies haven't been easy to come by at Anfield in recent years and so Brendan Rodgers, who has performed excellently so far, must start to add silverware to that famous old trophy room if he is to join the list of Liverpool greats. 

Results in pre-season have been good, new signings are being bedded in, and players such as Phillippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling now have an extra year's Premier League experience under their belt and should improve even further.

First up for the Reds are Southampton, one of only two away teams to win at Anfield last term. But this Saints side appears to be a pale shadow of last year's outfit and Liverpool should be confident of starting off the season with a win.

As for team news, recent acquisitions Adam Lallana and Lazar Markovic will miss the game through injury, as will last year's revelation at full-back Jon Flanagan. Daniel Agger also misses out. Dejan Lovren is likely to make his debut against his old club.

Southampton

What a difference a summer makes. Southampton delivered an excellent return to their season ticket holders last year - eight home wins and just five defeats and an eighth-placed finish in the Premier League. Their side was largely made up of young, exciting talent, many of whom were English.

Fast-forward three months and this side looks a different proposition altogether. Luke Shaw, Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren and Calum Chambers have all moved on, and more could follow before the end of August. This is now a team shorn of much of its thrust and creative ability. 

Of course, replacements have been sought and acquired, but of the signings Southampton have made, only Shane Long has played in the Premier League before and his goal scoring record means he alone is unlikely to score the amount needed to deliver a successful season to St Mary's. Manager Ronald Koeman, also new to English football, will need to hit the ground running because this division is an unforgiving one.

Jay Rodriguez will miss the curtain-raiser with a knee injury, but otherwise Southampton have a clean bill of health.

Match Odds

Liverpool are very short for the win here, as one would expect. 1.364/11 reflects their dominance at home last season and perhaps the weakened state Southampton find themselves in going into Sunday's game. Liverpool tend to be over-backed at the best of times anyway, but their recent resurgence in the league means we'll see a lot of short prices on them at home in the near future and my advice would be to get used to it. For that and other reasons, there will be times when Rodgers' men will be worth opposing, but in my opinion this is not one of them.

Southampton are a huge 10.5n/a to take the win here, and with fairly good reason; it's a tough place to go on the opening day of the season and the south coast side are currently in a state of transition. There's uncertainty around the club and uncertainty doesn't breed reliability on the pitch. I can understand backers being interested in the price but I don't give the away side a chance here.

The Draw is currently 5.79/2.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Liverpool were free-scoring last season, especially at home where they notched 53 goals in 19 games. Southampton didn't do too badly on the road, managing over a goal a game across the course of the season. I'm not entirely sure where goals are going to come from for the Saints this year, but if there has been an achilles heel in the Reds' play under Rodgers it has certainly been a tendency to concede sloppy goals. 

Dejan Lovren has been brought in to combat that, and he will be extra motivated against his old club, but it's not a stretch to imagine the home side yet again being breached amid the fog of uncertainty that can permeate the first game of the season. 

Rodgers has a load of attacking talent at his disposal even in the absence of Luis Suarez and so his side will threaten regularly. I think there'll be goals in this game, but Over 2.5 is only available at 1.674/6, so I'm going to recommend going one step further and backing Over 3.5 at a fat 2.6613/8.

Sidemarket Selection

As there's no value in the straight Match Odds market, I'm going to recommend a slightly more punchy bet revolving around a Liverpool win. I believe Rodgers will stick with his fast-starting, fluid style at least for these home games and so I think there is value in backing Liverpool/Liverpool in the Half Time/Full Time market at 2.021/1. The amount of goals the Reds scored in the first half last term was phenomenal so to get it at odds-against is a nice surprise. 

I can't resist one more speculative bet, seeing as it's the start of the season and the price should be good. I don't know about you, but I love a sub-plot in football, and Liverpool's newest centre-back Dejan Lovren scored at Anfield last season for the team he now faces on his debut. Football has a habit of featuring players scoring against their old clubs and the big Croatian is a genuine danger at set-pieces.

Back him to score any time at 9.08/1 or bigger.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.6613/8
Back Liverpool/Liverpool in the Half Time/Full Time market at 2.021/1
Back Dejan Lovren to score any time at 9.08/1 or bigger

Luke Moore P/L 2014/15

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