Learn how HFA can help your soccer betting

How to calculate Home Field Advantage

By Michael Gales Sep 19, 2012

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Bettors can try to gain an advantage by working out their own odds applying techniques used by bookmakers. One of these is the measure of Home Field Advantage. For bettors, the challenge is to calculate Home Field Advantage more accurately than the bookmaker.

It is widely accepted that sporting teams perform better at home than if they were away or at a neutral ground.

For example, in the 2011/12 Premier League season 604 goals were scored by sides at home, while away teams found the back of the net 462 times. Predictably, the same pattern has emerged for every season since the football league’s inception in 1888.

While stats suggest every team performs better at home than on their travels, it’s impossible to create a universal home-field advantage handicap. This is due to soccer teams being fundamentally unbalanced, with some teams earning bigger home-field advantages than others.

This is noticeable when calculating the Home Field Advantage of any team in a league. To ensure our Home Field Advantage calculation example is accurate, we will use the only seven teams to have played consistently in the Premier League since its inception in 1992: Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Aston Villa.

Team Name

All Premier League Season

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Manchester United

1.58

2.11

1.95

1.73

Chelsea

1.11

2.84

1.37

0.89

Liverpool

1.10

1.47

1.21

0.42

Arsenal

1.18

0.57

0.86

1.15

Tottenham

0.51

1.47

0.58

1.15

Everton

0.40

0.74

0.42

0.68

Aston Villa

0.38

0.68

0.37

-0.26

Calculating Home Field Advantage for the Premier League

To calculate the Home Field Advantage, take the number of goals scored at home per season (HF) and minus the number of goals conceded at home (HA). Then divide by the number of home games played in a season (19).

HFA = (HF – HA) / 19

For our sample, we calculated individual results for the last three seasons and the average from the entire history of the Premier League:

All seven sides have a long-term positive Home Field Advantages – which is expected, considering none have been relegated, but Aston Villa for example had a negative HFA for the 2011/12 season.

Manchester United are the most successful team in Premier League history, so predictably they have the greatest Home Field Advantage.

United’s Home Field Advantage calculations suggest that in title winning seasons, like in 2010/11, they are likely to score two goals more than their rivals in home games at Old Trafford.

Calculating Home Field Advantage with Asian Handicaps

This information has particular significance in Asian Handicap betting. If a team has a home handicap less than their Home Field Advantage, it might make a sensible bet – although this is just one of a number of factors to consider.

You also have to take into account what data you feel is relevant. Should Arsenal’s pre-2005 form be considered, even if it is at another stadium? What about Chelsea and Manchester City, who’s Home Field Advantage increased significantly after their purchases by rich owners?

Influences on Home Field Advantage

Home Crowds

The influence on Home Field Advantage by home crowds is something, which needs to be looked at. Anfield is renowned for creating a volatile atmosphere for visiting teams, but could this have a negative effect on the home team if they underperform?

Despite a relatively poor past three seasons for Liverpool, where the side finished 7th, 6th, and 8th, their Home Field Advantage has been 1.47, 1.21 and 0.42 – higher (excluding last season) than rivals Arsenal and Spurs, who out-performed them in the league.

This suggests that Liverpool’s home performances are affected by Home Field Advantage more so than others. However, after a third season of underperforming, a new and largely untested manager and their worst league position since 1994, will the intense expactation start to work against Liverpool?

Stadium Familiarity

Arsenal moved from Highbury to the Emirates Stadium for the 2006 season, but failed to utilise their Home Field Advantage.

Before the move, the Gunners came to prominence in 1997/98, picking up five Premier League trophies before the end of the 2005 season. During this period, their average Home Field Advantage was 1.51.

Since moving to the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal are trophyless, while their average Home Field Advantage has dropped to 1.23.

The affect of moving stadium is amplified if you examine the pre- and post- move seasons. Between the two years, Arsenal’s Home Field Advantage dropped by 0.42.

However, by looking at Arsenal’s last three seasons their Home Field Advantage has been gradually increasing, which may suggest they now feel at “home” at the Emirates stadium.

This suggests that when moving from a “home” ground that a team is accustomed to, performances suffer as they adjust to new surroundings. Without a control, which is impossible, this cannot be properly tested.

Referees

Further proof for the influences on Home Field Advantage was researched by Harvard Research Assistant Ryan Boyko.

Boyko studied 5,000 Premier League games from 1992 to 2006 to discern any officiating bias for home teams.

His conclusion was that for every 10,000 home team fans, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals.

His study also showed that home teams are more likely to receive penalties, particularly from inexperienced referees. Therefore building referee profiles is also important when predicting a match’s outcome.

2011-12 Premier League Club Home Field Advantage Calculations

To get you started with your Home Field Advantage calculations for this season we have calculated the Home Field Advantages for all teams competing in the 2012-13 Premier League season:

Team Name

2011-12

Arsenal

1.15

Aston Villa

-0.26

Chelsea

0.89

Everton

0.68

Fulham

0.52

Liverpool

0.42

Manchester City

2.26

Manchester United

1.73

Newcastle

0.63

Norwich

-0.10

QPR

-0.05

Reading*

0.78

Southampton*

1.34

Stoke

0.26

Sunderland

0.47

Swansea

0.47

Tottenham

1.15

West Brom

-0.05

West Ham*

0.65

Wigan

-0.26

*Stats from the Championship

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