Will Karl Robinson's MK Dons be just as stylish this weekend?
Alan Dudman unleashes his first lay of the season this weekend, whilst Bristol City and Doncaster Rovers are expected to maintain their 100% records...
Peterborough United 2.245/4 v MK Dons 3.3512/5, the draw 3.55n/a
A keen rivalry has developed between the two sides in recent seasons, and hopefully Saturday's League One encounter can throw up a goal or two. That's where I am heading with this match - goals, but I do think the price on the visitors is too big.
Both teams were successful in their opening fixtures last weekend, with Posh defeating Rochdale 1-0 at Spotland, and the Dons beating Gillingham 4-2. The duo had mixed fortunes in the Capital One Cup however on Tuesday, but I tend to ignore pretty much anything that goes on in those games.
You feel this is a make or break season for MK boss Karl Robinson, for a number of years now they have been one of the better and more stylish teams in the third tier, but they've choked in the play-off games and last season they were way too inconsistent. Robinson hasn't made many signings, but the ones he has have been described as 'astute'.
Following their huge success over AFC Wimbledon this week, Robinson's side have earned themselves a crack at Manchester United in the next round of the League Cup. However I am more interested in their 4-2 victory last weekend, a sensational result and comeback considering they were 2-0 down. They looked brave again in terms of possession, coupled with a clinical look in front of goal.
The Posh victory last Saturday wasn't a vintage performance, but they kept quiet a toothless Rochdale at Spotland despite conceding a lot of the possession. They may have to give it up to the Dons on Saturday, as this Peterborough midfield isn't as creative as the golden years of Lee Tomlin.
The hosts also have a big problem at centre-back, as two of their best defenders Jack Baldwin and Gaby Zakauni have been ruled out for a month. Zakauni's bravery and aerial presence is a huge loss, and boss Darren Ferguson has a serious puzzle to solve. He may move in the loan market, but his summer target appears to be Hartlepool's forward Luke James, with bids reportedly tabled.
The Posh Over 2.5 Goals price again is skinnier than it ought to be at 1.84/5, but I would rather take that than backing the hosts outright. The United attack of Conor Washington and Kyle Vassell teamed up quite well last weekend, but I am slightly worried their midfield is more of a biting one than a creative one.
However, with the Dons in great scoring form, they might be able to take advantage of the loss of Zakuani and Baldwin. I think the visitors will have more of the possession, plus the pitch at London Road should be better than last term.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
Despite the MK Dons conceding two early goals last Saturday, they actually started really brightly, which again was the case for the midweek cup tie. The away team are overpriced here, and even though I cannot recommend it as an outright, an early goal for Robinson's side might throw up a trade.
Having earlier outlined the heated rivalry between the two, it's worth noting that when these teams met each other last season, 13 yellow cards were handed out with two reds, an equally fiery game from the outset could make the sending off market livelier than normal.
Recommended Bets
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5
Lay Peterborough @ 2.26/5
Bristol City 1.75/7 v Colchester United 6.05/1, the draw 4.1n/a
I cannot see Colchester winning this at all, and having tipped them up for relegation this season in my ante-post preview, I am hoping I am correct for this Saturday.
City meanwhile got off to the perfect start last weekend in the live Sky TV game, winning 2-1 at Sheffield United - a mighty performance from Steve Cotterill's side. It was their first win at Bramall Lane in 57 years (irrelevant I know), but it highlighted how crucial experience is at this level, as goals from Aaron Wilbraham and Wade Elliott wrapped up the points.
The Robins have got plenty of goals in them, and Wilbraham's strength will enable the quicker Sam Baldock to play off him, although with reports suggesting Cotterill is lining up a bid for Rotherham's Kieron Agard, I worry if this will be a direct replacement for Baldock - who has been linked with a move to Brighton.
Bristol City fired in plenty of crosses last weekend, and their new look centre-back three of Luke Ayling, Aden Flint and Derrick Williams worked well. They had to defend a bit in the second-half, but against Sheffield United on their own patch, you would expect to do so. This is very much a winnable affair, and the home team really ought to be a bit shorter.
Colchester drew their League One opener 2-2 at Oldham, a terrific pulsating affair in which U's boss Joe Dunne thought they had 'done enough for the win'. But conceding two goals is a problem, as they had 61 put past them last season. Although their midfield looked good against the Latics, they look too inexperienced to handle some of Bristol City's players - who have a wealth of know-how.
Dunne had five players out of his Carling Cup team on Tuesday (losing 4-0 to Charlton), and Cotterill took the opportunity to give starts to squad members on the fringes of the first team. The visitors have an injury worry concerning midfielder Craig Eastmond, who limped out of action last weekend, but otherwise I expect the hosts to be too strong - even at those short odds.
Best Trade/ Cash Out Play
This will kept fairly straightforward, as I anticipate a home win with a few goals, the best angles could be a couple of backs of 2-0 8.88/1, and 3-0 15.5n/a in the correct scoreline market.
Recommended Bets
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.804/5
Back Bristol City to win @ 1.705/7
Doncaster Rovers 2.01/1 v Port Vale 4.57/2, the draw 3.55/2
Doncaster have an upcoming run of three home games out of their next four, with two victories already in the bag. They hit fellow relegated side Yeovil last Saturday with a 3-0 victory and also managed a 1-0 cup win in midweek (in which five players were rested). Eagle-eyed followers of this column (if you are there, let me know) will remember how I rated Harry Forrester from his Brentford days. He's back in the division with Donny now, and his attacking prowess is already evident, having bagged a lovely goal against the Glovers last weekend.
Rovers looked fairly clinical up front in the League One opener plus they were solid at the back. Although Yeovil offered very little, Doncaster were well organised and first to every single ball. I am still to be convinced by manager Paul Dickov (who failed at Oldham bar a cup run), but they did look strong seven days ago.
Port Vale enjoyed a goalfest in midweek for their Carling Cup 6-2 success over Hartlepool. Ben Williamson hit a hat-trick within 10 minutes on Tuesday, and they need his craft for this weekend.
Vale boss Micky Adams looks short of striker depth in his squad, and they can't just rely on the long ball to forward Tom Pope. It's understood that Adams is in the market for a frontman (which looks his priority), but they wouldn't have the biggest budget in this division. Regarding team news, midfielder Michael O'Connor looks a doubt having picked up a recent groin injury.
The visitors opened their league campaign with a 1-1 draw against the neat and tidy Walsall, a game in which their cutting edge (or lack of) was very apparent. They produced plenty of crosses for Pope, and Doncaster will have more to deal with than Yeovil last weekend, especially from the dangerous deliveries of Mark Marshall.
Adams used one up front plenty of times in pre-season, and I wonder if he'll adopt that approach here? But with Vale's lack of end product, I am readily opposing them in favour of the hosts.
Recommended Bet
Back Doncaster Rovers to win @ 2.01/1
League One 2014/15 P/L (all selections one point)
- 0.50 pts
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий