воскресенье, 17 августа 2014 г.

In-play Betting Tips: A guide to 2014/15's first super Sunday

Even with Radamel Falcao back, Monaco leave their scoring late

Michael Lintorn offers some in-play theories for Sunday's Premier League, Ligue 1 and Scottish Championship action...

To prove that the new season is truly underway, there is a menu of ten different televised matches to salivate over on Sunday. For 2014/15's first in-play betting column, we pick out three of the most intriguing from three different competitions and identify potential mid-match profit opportunities...

Hearts v Hibernian
Sunday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports 3

Match Odds: Hearts 2.26/5, Hibernian 3.711/4, The Draw 3.412/5

Hearts kept three clean sheets in five Edinburgh derbies last season and another is available to back at 3.02/1. However, as Hibernian have fired past Rangers and Livingston in their first two fixtures since being relegated to the Scottish Championship, it can't be backed with great confidence pre-match.

What you can be more assured of is that they won't net in the final half hour if they haven't scored in the hour that precedes it. None of Hibs' goals in their last six competitive outings have come later than the 60th minute and they have only struck twice beyond that point across their last dozen encounters, so if Hearts sheets are clean at that stage, you should back them to keep them that way.

Newcastle v Man City
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Newcastle 5.79/2, Man City 1.684/6, The Draw 4.216/5

Premier League champions Man City are gaining a reputation as a team fond of putting on an opening-day show, their 4-0 home thrashings of Swansea in 2011/12 and Newcastle in 2013/14 sandwiching a 3-2 thriller with Southampton in 2012/13.

Those games didn't start in a manner that made such final scores obvious though. The Swansea clash was goalless until the 57th minute, as was the Southampton showdown until the 40th minute, while the Newcastle victory saw half the goals saved until the 50th minute and beyond.

The advice therefore is to count on a lively second half, even if the evidence of the first half doesn't suggest one is imminent (indeed, if that is the case, the odds will favour you more). If it is 0-0, try over 1.5; if there has been one goal, back over 2.5; if there are two, go for over 3.5.

Bordeaux v Monaco
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Bordeaux 3.185/40, Monaco 2.68/5, The Draw 3.39/4

It isn't the optimum time to be betting on either side as they embark on new eras under Leonardo Jardim and Willy Sagnol, though their opening-weekend performances indicated that certain 2013/14 characteristics remain. For instance, Monaco were kept waiting until the 78th minute for a goal at home to Lorient, and even then it was a penalty.

Only one of the nine goals that they scored in their last five Ligue 1 games arrived in the first half, with eight coming in the 53rd minute or later and six in the final 17 minutes. Backing the Bordeaux clean sheet at 3.55/2 before kick-off with a view to a trade on 45 or 60 minutes should prove a shrewd Cash Out strategy.

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