Head of Soccer Props Q&A Transcript

Head of Soccer Props Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise Jun 6, 2014

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On June 5th, one week before the start of World Cup, Pinnacle Sports’ Head of Soccer Props took over the @PinnacleSports Twitter controls to take your questions on World Cup props. Below, find a transcript (edited for spelling, grammar and abbreviations, while combining multiple-tweet statements into single answers) of that conversation with our followers:

Head of Soccer Props (HOSP): Hi everyone. One week away! This is going to be fun:) Let’s talk some World Cup.

Q1: From @DavidHollidge: On average how many games have contained a penalty in World Cups?

HOSP: A penalty? I’m not sure, actually. Usually we see like 1/3 of a penalty per match, so we’ll see 20-25 in the World Cup, not including shootouts.

Q2. From email: Which teams are getting more or less winners outright interest than you thought they would?

HOSP: Argentina’s getting a lot. Didn’t expect much because they haven’t shown a lot of cohesiveness. Everyone’s getting action though.

Q3. From email: Of the countries that aren’t “supposed” to advance, which do you think has the best chance to go forward?

HOSP: I think you’re probably looking for the weakest group. The Koreans probably have a pretty good chance of beating Russia. Russia has the same problem as England, buying a lot of foreign players for domestic leagues doesn’t help the national product.

Q4. From email: Do you think any of the group favourites won’t advance? Who is the most likely?

HOSP: I would say Columbia is most likely to not advance. Losing Falcao hurts. They’re the group favourite, but not a strong favourite. Italy’s draw with Luxembourg puts them in the discussion, I think. Italy drawing with Luxembourg isn’t that big a deal, but conceding a goal is.

Q5. from @PStreett3: What’s a dark horse team bettors should be looking at in the group stage and overall in making a solid run?

HOSP: Hmm. Is Japan considered a dark horse? If they are, I think they’re a good answer here. Croatia? I think they are really good. Their group is really tough. If they get through they have a good chance.

Q6. From @Dennis7menace: If you can choose an underdog to be the winner of the World Cup which one will you choose?

HOSP: I think Netherlands is the country with the longest odds that I think has a real chance to win. Lots of people, even Dutchmen, saying they’re not good, but I like LVG. I think they’re at good value right now.

Q7. From @blckNteal: Does a strong team (Brazil/Argentina e.g.) in 1 group affect how you might price the winner of its neighbour group? France/Spain?

HOSP: We don’t factor that in much. It’s too much of a longshot to happen, even if it’s the most likely scenario. Spain lost to Switzerland in 2010…too many possible slips for us to count on something like that.

Q8. From @RWhittall: Please fill this bracket out for me…or at least tell me the best way to go about it: pic.twitter.com/mMTIThTfrN

HOSP: Truthfully, use our odds…the market is pretty smart about these things.

Q9. From @ddivecch: Every person with an opinion is tipping Chile to progress in Group B. Are you a believer? They are not flawless.

HOSP: I like Netherlands and Spain, given the odds being offered. The climate is good for Chile and bad for Netherlands, but Netherlands has a lot of experience. I just favour them.

Q10. From @rag2gar: I’ve bet Neymar at 14/1 for golden boot. I think he’ll get a lot of minutes but is he prolific enough for me?

HOSP: Neymar’s not a forward…he’s a winger. I don’t see him outscoring forwards, but i think you got pretty good odds.

Q11. From @ChaseRuttig: What about parlaying the heavy favorites to qualify out of the groups? Which nations worry you in an accumulator sense?

HOSP: I’d say the big five (for accas) are Brazil, France, Germany, Argentina and Belgium…of those, I’d say France is the biggest question mark. They could always rebel on their manager:)

Q12. From @MConsty1: Are you anticipating support for England the nearer we get to their first game, particularly to qualify markets?

HOSP: Yes. Customers always love England. Not sure if I would bet them because that love deflates the price

Q13. From @BenGodfather: Let me guess…… England to win it all?

HOSP: I’d bet against that:)

Q14. From @Loving_the_Punt: As an Aussie, has there been much action for our team to not score a single goal? A sad time for the socceroos!

HOSP: It’s a sad group, that’s the problem. A super strong group with strong defensive teams. Goals will be difficult. We only posted that prop yesterday, but it’s gotten interest. We’ll see more in the coming week.

Q15. From @Dennis7menace: And a last question what is your prediction about England. Can it be in the final?

HOSP: No. #Sorry

Q16. From @cloningArteta: Netherlands a lot of experience? Half the team are kids from Feyenoord, aren’t they?

HOSP: Yes they are, but I REALLY like LVG and he’s really good at working with young people…even if he is a little crazy:)

Q17. From @pstreett3: Have you seen much movement with Portugal and worries about Cristiano Ronaldo being hurt? Maybe Ghana more of a favourite than Portugal?

HOSP: No. Don’t think it’s too serious. He’s had 2 weeks to recover. I’d be surprised if he was out of the Germany match.

Q18. From @BenGodfather: Well we’re on the same page……Brazil @ Home is a tough nut to crack…

HOSP: True, but I think they’re overrated. Home field is overrated…it’s derived from a sample that includes players taking boats to the World Cup. HFA is big, but not as big as it’s made out to be.

Q19. From @ddivecch: Are you expecting a lot of low scoring and or tight draw/one goal games early on?

HOSP: Yes. World Cup is always super-low scoring. A lot of the totals are like 2 or 2.25. When teams don’t know each other, it’s much easier to defend than attack.

Q20. From email: How closely do FIFA rankings at start of World Cup reflect the head to head results in individual matches?

HOSP: Not at all. Those rankings are horribly inbred because of lack of matches. The majority are gained through qualifications. Brazil, for example, only play friendlies, while Portugal is rated 4th. They’re fun, but pointless when considering bets.

Q21. From email: Is there a large difference between the group stages and the knockout stages due to smaller countries being a lesser-known entity in the first game of the tournament?

HOSP: Yes, definitely. The odds for the first few matches generally aren’t sharp because we don’t know those teams yet. Teams like Germany could still have 5-6 positions change.

Q22. From email: Who do you think will win Golden Boot?

HOSP: I have to like Messi…some people say Aguero, but I don’t think he’ll take as many shots for ARG when they have Messi. Playing weak teams early is a huge advantage…Argentina could score 5-6 goals in group stage matches.

HOSP: I have to get going everyone. Be sure to check out our new team totals for the tournament. I just put them up:) Thanks for all your questions!

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