Burnley v Chelsea: Don't expect title favourites to have it all their own way

Chelsea's Diego Costa seems ideally suited to the Premier League

Newly-promoted Burnley are favourites to be relegated, while Chelsea are market leaders when it comes to winning the title, but Kevin Hatchard expects a hard-fought encounter at Turf Moor...

Burnley v Chelsea
Monday August 18th, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Burnley 9.617/2, Chelsea 1.434/9, The Draw 5.04/1

Burnley

The Clarets are back in the top flight for the first time since 2010, and this time they want to stick around for longer than just one season. The market doesn't expect them to survive - they are 1.618/13 favourites in the Relegation market - but Sean Dyche's men are used to defying the odds.

Having sold star striker Charlie Austin to QPR, few gave them any hope of making an impact in the Championship (apart from our second-tier specialist Mike Norman, who suggested backing them to go up as early as September). However, with an attacking brand of football that was underpinned by meticulous organisation and supreme fitness, Burnley finished eight points clear of the playoff places to secure second place.

Burnley have done well in the transfer market, and Dyche's disdain for divas is apparent in his dealings. He has signed a mixture of promising young players like strikers Marvin Sordell and Lukas Jutkiewicz, and solid pros like Steven Reid, Stephen Ward, Matt Taylor and Michael Kightly. Burnley have also managed to retain their best players, and they might not be the pushovers many observers expect them to be.

Chelsea

Jose Mourinho's first season back at Stamford Bridge was ultimately a frustrating one. A challenge for the Premier League title was torpedoed by some ugly late-season results (defeats to Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Sunderland spring to mind), and Champions League ambitions were stymied at the semi-final stage by Atletico Madrid.

Chelsea have responded by bringing in three of that Atletico team - keeper Thibault Courtois was recalled from his loan spell at the Vicente Calderon, while big fees were spent on prolific striker Diego Costa and rock-solid left-back Filipe Luis. The addition of Cesc Fabregas could be a masterstroke - he has bags of Premier League experience (why do we always keep experience in bags?) and at the age of 27 he should be approaching the peak of his powers.

The Chelsea squad looks incredibly strong in all areas. Last season Chelsea had the best defence in the Premier League, and they have even more options now with the arrivals of Courtois and Filipe Luis. Nemanja Matic is a commanding presence in front of the back four, while Fabregas will be given more attacking licence alongside him. There is a galaxy of stars available to play behind the striker, and although Diego Costa will be the first-choice frontman (he ought to be after scoring 35 goals last season), Didier Drogba is an excellent alternative.

It's hardly a left-field choice, but Chelsea are my tip to win the title at 2.727/4.

Team News

Burnley have no fresh injury concerns, although striker Sam Vokes will be out for months with a knee injury. Chelsea haven't indicated whether Courtois or Petr Cech will get the nod in goal, but Drogba (ankle) is their only injury concern.

Match Odds

Chelsea are the stronger side on paper, but the first game of the season is always a tricky one, especially on the road. Although I suspect Chelsea will find a way to win against determined opponents, the price of 1.434/9 for the road win is far from tempting, especially given Burnley's excellent home record last term.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market is split on this, with overs trading at 1.9520/21 and unders at 2.021/1. This indecision isn't surprising, as it's difficult to gauge how the sides will approach the match. Dyche's Burnley are attacking by nature, but will he rein them in against such a star-studded side? Mourinho may also be cautious, as he won't want a repeat of last season's defeats at places like Villa Park and Selhurst Park. If I had to make a call, I'd lean towards Under 2.5 Goals, but it wouldn't be with confidence.

Half Time

With a fervent atmosphere expected at Turf Moor and Burnley's players filled with adrenaline, Chelsea might take a while to get a grip of this game. It's worth considering that in their last seven matches of last season, Chelsea led at half-time on just one occasion. Indeed, in 31 away games last season, the Blues had the half-time advantage just 12 times.

Burnley played 26 matches at Turf Moor last season, and trailed at half-time just once. Obviously they are making a huge step up in class on Monday night, but those statistics show the Clarets aren't prone to making sloppy starts to home matches. In the Half Time market, the draw is trading at a hefty 2.6213/8, and that looks an attractive price to me. You may even be tempted to back Draw/Chelsea in the Half Time/Full Time market at 4.77/2.

To Score

Although he had a poor World Cup for Spain (he wasn't alone in that), Diego Costa now looks to be fully fit and firing. He has been very sharp in pre-season, and his aggression and strength should suit the demands of the Premier League. His odds of 2.3211/8 in the To Score market make him the favourite to find the back of the net, but that doesn't mean it's not a bet worth making. Cesc Fabregas has also shown he has an eye for goal in pre-season, and he's trading at 2.9215/8, while Chelsea's reigning top scorer Eden Hazard is 2.568/5.

On the Burnley side of things, the Clarets did well to keep hold of rising star Danny Ings, after he smashed in 26 goals last season. The 22-year-old had a bit of a dry spell towards the end of the campaign, scoring just twice in his last 12 games, but in his defence he was struggling with a persistent ankle problem. He is 3.211/5 to score at any time.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw in the Half Time market at 2.6213/8
Back Diego Costa to score at 2.3211/8
Back Chelsea to win the Premier League at 2.727/4