Aston Villa Season Preview: Another survival struggle awaits Lambert's men

Joe Cole's signing hasn't been greeted too enthusiastically

Pessimism abounds at Aston Villa after three abject seasons. Michael Lintorn considers whether it is justified...

Last season

For a run through Aston Villa's 2013/14, you needn't look much further than their 2012/13 or their 2011/12. Once again, they flirted with relegation without ever getting too amorous, conceded with an abandon that would concern even Zdenek Zeman, plucked a 3-1 win at a top-seven club out of thin air and finished a few places above the drop zone, as fans grew progressively more disillusioned.

Victories over Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea were overshadowed by ten home defeats - six of them to nil - while the cups brought humiliation as League One side Sheffield United joined Millwall and Bradford on their list of lower-league dethroners during Paul Lambert's two-year reign.

Ins and outs

Rarely has a transfer window in which the spine of a team was retained - Brad Guzan, Ron Vlaar, Fabian Delph and Christian Benteke - and new recruits acquired (not to mention Roy Keane coming in as assistant manager) been greeted so dejectedly. Indeed, Villa fans have been so underwhelmed by their additions that you suspect they would be happier if they hadn't signed anyone at all.

The arrivals are Aly Cissokho, Kieran Richardson, Philippe Senderos and Joe Cole, who all offer the positive of recent Premier League experience, but counteracted by the negative of their latest work being widely chided. The only exits were of early-20s players who couldn't cement a place, though it is arguable that they should have fought harder to keep Marc Albrighton, who joined Leicester.

The manager

Aston Villa supporters were so convinced that Lambert was the perfect fit for them during the final days of the "surely it can't get worse than this; oh wait, it can" Alex McLeish era that they chanted his name during their 2011/12 final-day defeat away to his Norwich side.

Two campaigns of not-quite-mediocrity and football no more aesthetic than that served up under McLeish have torpedoed that goodwill and established him as the 5.49/2 second favourite to be the next Premier League manager axed. However, it will likely require a takeover for that bet to pay out as exit-keen owner Randy Lerner has never sacked a coach in mid-season.

Expectations

With such an average squad - few players beyond the aforementioned spine would attract interest from other Premier League clubs if available - it is difficult to set the bar much higher than survival, especially with ownership uncertainty, managerial misgivings and fan discontent added to the mix.

It would be possible to finish 15th for a third year in a row without it being judged a complete failure though. Adopting a livelier style of play, coaxing from Darren Bent the form that Steve Bruce and McLeish found so effortlessly, staying clear of demotion danger, avoiding cup embarrassment and enticing a new owner would improve the mood at Villa Park, even if Villa don't climb the table.

Best Bet

Lay Aston Villa to be Top Midlands Club @ 3.02/1 or shorter - This Betfair market pays out not on league position but how many points each of Aston Villa, Stoke, West Brom and Leicester claim in head-to-head combat. With Villa winning one in nine against Stoke, one in seven against West Brom and losing their most recent clash with Leicester, they simply have to be opposed.

Value Bet

Back Aston Villa to be relegated @ 3.7511/4 - The argument here isn't necessarily that they will go down, rather that there will be a window of vulnerability through which their odds will shrink and a Cash Out opportunity will emerge. They hit a run of 13 defeats in 21 games starting last December and spent most of February in the bottom three in 2012/13, so expect further dicey moments.