Against All Odds: Sao Paulo to keep it tight

The defences should be on top tonight

It's the second leg of the Copa do Brasil tie between Sao Paulo and Bragantino SP tonight and Paul Robinson thinks it will be a low-scoring affair.

Sao Paulo v Bragantino SP
Thursday 14 August, 02:00 BST
Live on Premier Sports

Sao Paulo bring a 2-1 lead into this match following their victory at Bragantino a fortnight ago. They should now sail comfortably through to the next round of the competition but I personally wouldn't back them at short odds given their ability to throw in a shocking performance.

I'm not opposing them - and I was tempted to at the prices - because I believe there is more value in taking on over 2.5 goals. With a trip to Palmeiras coming up on Sunday, I expect Muricy Ramalho's side to take it easy and not go all out to extend their advantage. It is also worth considering that four of their last six in front of their own fans have finished with two goals or less.

Bragantino SP kept themselves just about in this tie thanks to a late Luisinho strike in the first leg. It's been a bit of a wretched campaign thus far for last year's 12th placed finishers as they down in 18th in Serie B this time around and they come into this game on a run of five defeats from half a dozen outings in the league.

As far as the goals go, Paulo Csar Gusmo's men have had seven of their 15 league fixtures go under 2.5 and that includes their last two which both finished with just a solitary goal. They have netted in four of their last five on the road in all competitions, but they haven't exactly faced this calibre of opposition.

All things considered, with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.84/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Bragantino SP @ 1.84/5

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 215 pts
Returned: 220.86 pts
P/L: + 5.86 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)