What the Champions League final trends suggest

What the Champions League final trends suggest

By Michael Gales May 17, 2013

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Bayern Munich play Dortmund in the first ever all-German Champions League final at Wembley on May 25th. We investigate 12 trends that have preceded the previous 20 modern day Champions league finals.

0 – Extra time not decisive

In the previous 20 Champions League finals, none have been decided in extra time. Interestingly, on the six occasions extra time has been needed, there have been no goals scored in the 180 minutes of play.

Barcelona were the last team to win the cup in extra time back in 1992 when they beat Sampdoria 1-0 thanks to a goal from Ronald Koeman in the 111th minute.

1 – Number of red cards in a final (normal time)

Only one player has been sent off in a Champions League final normal time – Jens Lehmann. The Arsenal goalkeeper was dismissed in the 2006 on 18 minutes for bringing down Samuel Eto’o. Despite trailing for the majority of the match, Barcelona made their man advantage count, winning 2-1 with goals from Eto’o and Juliano Belletti on 76 and 81 minutes respectively.

Pinnacle Sports are offering odds of 3.470* to see the referee brandish a red card, while 1.333* suggest Lehmann will remain the only player to be given his marching orders in normal time.

2.55 – Average number of goals in Champions League final

Since 1993, the Champions League final has witnessed 51 goals at an average of 2.55 goals per game. Despite only one final in the last five years seeing more than 2.5 goals, 60% of finals in the last 20 years have.

Over 2.5 and 3 goals is available to back with Pinnacle Sports at 2.000*, but if you think the final will see less than 2.5 and 3 goals at Wembley odds of 1.917* are available.

3 – Same nation final stats

The 2013 final will become the fourth same nation final and the first all-German in the Champions League.

The three previous games have been tight affairs – two of the games were decided by a penalty shootout with an average of 1.6 goals per game and four bookings.

4 – Average number of bookings in Champions League final (normal time)

The previous 20 Champions League finals have produced 78 yellow cards and one sending off, which averages out to 4 booking points per game with Pinnacle Sports. (Click here to read booking rules).

Over 4.5 bookings is available at 1.714* while Pinnacle Sports offer 2.200* for under 4.5 booking points. It is worth noting that only 20% of finals have seen more than 4.5 booking points in the past 20 years.

4 – Only four penalties (normal time)

There have been four penalties in normal time in the last 20 Champions League finals – three of which came in the same game. Intriguingly, only two have been scored.

Pinnacle Sports are offering odds of 3.620* for a penalty to be awarded in normal time for the first time since 2005, while 1.313* is available for bettors who believe the drought will continue.

6 – Penalty shootouts

Six Champions League finals have been decided by penalty shoot-outs with only one reaching sudden death. Bayern Munich have been involved in two of these shoot-outs, winning one in 2001 and losing last year to Chelsea.

10 – Average Corners in last 7 years (normal time)

There have been 70 corners in the past seven Champions League cup finals, which averages to 10 per final. With Pinnacle Sports setting the over/under mark at 10 corners, 28% of finals in this period have produced more, while 72% have seen fewer corners per game.

Over 10 corners is available at 1.901*, while 1.990* are the odds for under 10.

16 seconds – Quickest goal by a substitution

16 seconds is all it took former Dortmund forward Lars Ricken to score after coming onto the pitch as a substitute in the 1997 final against Juventus – the quickest goal by a substitute in the Champions League final.

52 seconds – Fastest Champions League goal

Paolo Maldini holds the record for the fastest goal scored in Champions League final history. The Italian took just 52 seconds to give AC Milan the lead against Liverpool in 2005.

55% – Both teams to score

In 55% of Champions League finals in the last 20 years, both teams have scored. Odds of 1.694* are available if you think both Bayern and Dortmund will score, while 2.280* is offered for at least one team to keep a clean sheet.

54% – How often the favourites win in normal time

Since 2002, 54% of the favourites with Pinnacle Sports have lifted the cup inside 90 minutes. With extra time and penalties included, this number jumps up to 72%.

Bayern Munich are this year’s 1.781* favourites with Pinnacle Sports, while Dortmund are available at 4.760*, with the draw set at 4.020*.

On the “which team will win?” market, Bayern are set at 1.426* compared to Dortmund at 3.100*.

Click here to see the latest 2013 Champions League final odds.

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*Odds subject to change