Ashes Series Betting: Underestimate Lehmann's Australia at your peril

Mitchell Starc could 'cause havoc' for England's batsmen

Ed Hawkins reckons an England series win is not the wisest selection for value hunters before the start of the first Test at Trent Bridge on Wednesday

It is an indication of how low Australia's reputation as a cricketing force has stooped that there is a market asking: will they win a Test? In Ashes contests that betting opportunity is usually the preserve of disorganised and disunited England outfits. The status quo has shifted.

Australia have had a "horrific" start to the tour, in the words of the grand master, Shane Warne. Their form has been horrible, they have sacked the coach and there have been reports of infighting. Not surprisingly, the money flow for England has been thick and fast.

We now have a series market which is reminiscent of the days of Australia's dominance from 1989 to 2005 only this time it is the English who are prohibitively short. England are 1.434/9, Australia 5.204/1 and the draw 8.4015/2. 

It would be easy to jump on the bandwagon and reckon England will steamroller Australia. But that could prove to be an expensive mistake. Instead, learn this: write off Australia at your peril.

If there is one international side on whom you can rely to show some guts, or a bit of 'mongrel' as they call it in the backwaters down under, it is Australia. And particularly an Australia team under the coaching stewardship of Darren Lehmann.

When Micky Arthur was replaced by 'Boof', at a swift, apparently harsh stroke of the axe, Australia improved their chances immeasurably. Australia were coming apart at the seams. Lehmann, whose most impressive success came in leading a dispirit Deccan to an IPL title, is super glue. 

He is the bond and the brains. But what of the players who must do his bidding? Are they any good? Let us not forget that Australia were thumped 4-0 in India in their last series.

That reverse has been something of an obsession for their detractors. It was historic, after all. However, Australia's record in the last two years is good. Including that defeat by India they have lost only twice in eight, winning four. England's record is identical.

The main reasons for Australia's solid base are the canny captaincy of Michael Clarke, the gusto of Shane Watson in the opening berth and two fast-bowling tyros: Mitchell Starc and James Pattinson.

Starc and Pattinson could wreak havoc. The former, a 6ft 5in a left-armer, is hopeful of exploiting England's weakness against bowlers of his type. Pattinson is not as subtle a threat. He is aggressive and quick.

Of course there are major flaws for Australia to overcome. It remains to be seen whether they can play swing, natural or reverse. There also appears to be some dead weights in the squad. We are doubtful of the calibre of Phil Hughes and Steven Smith for example.

Indeed, those two could be walking wickets to an England attack which is fearsome. James Anderson, Steven Finn and Stuart Broad are a fantastic trio. As much as Australia hope Starc and Pattinson can do damage, a punter should expect those three to rip through the tourists at least once in a five-Test series.

England are obdurate rather than spectacular. Slow and steady often wins them the race under the studious leadership of Alastair Cook. If there is stardust it is from Graeme Swann who is the one unique performer in either side. Sorry KP (by the way if you want to know how key he is, read here).

The hosts, who have lost only two series at home in five years, both to South Africa, are best followed on the series correct score. A 2-1 England win attracts attention at 9.4017/2. England won by that margin on Australia's last visit.

We expect a tight series with every run counting. Stats like Australia's lower-order (last four batsmen) averaging 20 more runs than England is tantalising for value hunters. 

And by that we don't mean whitewashes on the correct score. Don't waste your cash expecting an England stroll. England have never won four Tests in a home series, even against dreadful Australia sides in 1956 and 1985.

With the toss key at Trent Bridge for for the First Test - the match will be decided by whichever side gets the best bowling conditions - it might not take long for the the series odds to have a more familiar, historic look. 

Recommended bet
Australia +1.5 Tests at 2.1211/10