German Grand Prix betting: Webber to get a boost from the "Rafa effect"

Champagne time for Mark Webber . . . and there could be more to come

Mark Webber chose to jump from Red Bull before he could be pushed. Ralph Ellis explains why the Aussie F1 star could benefit from easing the pressure.

For most people, handing in your notice means your standard of work goes to pieces. You know you're not going to be around much longer, you can't wait to move on to the next challenge, and you can't see the point of staying late or taking work home any more.

In sport it can be different. Rafa Benitez was struggling to get a grip on managing Chelsea while he was called interim manager but clearly wanted to keep the job - the moment he announced he'd leave in the summer the pressure all lifted, and he finished up winning a European trophy and qualifying for the Champions League.

So it might just be that Mark Webber has done the right thing in telling the world so soon that he'll be leaving Red Bull at the end of 2013. The Australian was facing months of speculation about whether he'd get dumped by Formula One's leading team. He's saved them the bother by getting himself fixed up with Porsche and a crack at the Le Mans 24 hour race instead.

Call it the "Rafa effect" if you like, but getting the future mapped out clearly helped Webber at Silverstone where he drove superbly to finish a split second behind Nico Rosberg, and given another lap might well have won. Now he doesn't have to worry about the long-term effects of his fall-out with team mate Sebastian Vettel he can just relax and enjoy racing.

The politics will all be about who replaces him. Kimi Raikkonen has inevitably been the first to get his name mentioned, and the Finn is likely to be firm favourite as Betfair's new Next Red Bull Driver market gets established. But Webber himself has backed the claims of his fellow Australian, 23-year-old Daniel Ricciardo, and it makes sense for the team to look within their own ranks at the promising Torro Rosso driver.

There are those who would suggest that Webber's decision to go means he'll be neglected by the Red Bull garage and be less competitive this season. That's nonsense. The team are focused on keeping the Constructors Championship, and are more than aware of the challenge coming at them from Mercedes who are now above Ferrari in second place and proved their speed again at Silverstone both in qualifying and the race.

Mercedes will be the big danger to Red Bull in Sunday's German Grand Prix, and Vettel is 2.915/8 favourite. But with Pirelli bringing yet another version of their tyres there is too much to go wrong to back anybody at such a short price.

The teams themselves don't have a clue how they will perform, other than to hope they won't be exploding like they did at Silverstone. Fernando Alonso got it right by saying: "We can't make any predictions because no one has tried them and we don't know what they can bring, apart from trusting it won't be dangerous."

That makes Webber the stand-out value for at 9.417/2 to be the race winner and 2.6213/8 a podium finish. He's taken all the distractions away and can just concentrate on racing, which is what he has always done best.