Against All Odds: Fireworks in the Libertadores

The Olimpia players know where the goal is

It's the first semi-final of the Copa Libertadores tonight and Paul Robinson thinks the clash between Olimpia and Santa Fe on Betfair Live Video will produce at least three goals.

Olimpia won this tournament back in 2002 but they weren't expected to get this far this year. The Paraguayan outfit dominated their group to win it with a four point cushion over Newell's Old Boys in second. They then roared back from a 2-1 first leg defeat at Tigre in the last 16 and knocked out the reigning Brazilian champions Fluminense in the quarters.

Starting from the group phase of this competition, seven of Olimpia's 10 matches have gone over 2.5 goals - including the first leg against Tigre. Ever Hugo Almeida won't want to go to Colombia without a lead so I wouldn't expect him to deploy negative tactics where the main aim is simply not to concede. 

El Decano warmed up for this match with a defeat to Sol de America in the league and that game featured three goals - in fact, four of their last five have gone over 2.5.

Santa Fe have won seven league titles in Colombia but they've never won the Libertadores. Like their opponents, they dominated their group to finish on top and then went on to knock out Gremio on away goals in the last 16 before easing past Real Garcilaso 5-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Wilson Gutirrez isn't afraid to send his men out to attack and both of their first leg matches went over 2.5 goals in the knockout rounds. The Cardinals have scored at least once in each away fixture thus far and three of their last four in all competitions have had three goals or more.

This should be a cracking game between two sides who didn't think they'd have much chance of making the final pre-tournament. One of them is now only 180 minutes away from doing so and I think they'll both come out all guns blazing. That's why, at around the 1.664/6 mark, I have to make under 2.5 goals my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Olimpia v Santa Fe @ 1.664/6 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 182 pts
Returned: 173.34 pts
P/L – 8.66 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)