Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

Overtaking, incidents and chaos expected in Montreal

By Michael Gales May 31, 2013

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Round seven of the Formula one championship sees the paddock cross the Atlantic to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix. History indicates there will be plenty of excitement, overtaking and racing incidents at the street circuit.

Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – Enthralling & chaotic action

The track at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is tough on the tyres and creates plenty of overtaking opportunities. Coupled alongside frequently variable weather, this means the Canadian GP is one of the most exciting and unpredictable races of the year, with a much higher percentage of stoppages, incidents and safety cars.

Cars with good downforce should prosper as the track requires a high-downforce setup to aid stability under braking – the track tests brakes to their limits – and for traction on the corner exit.

Overtaking is encouraged at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Last year saw 47 overtake manoeuvres in a dry race, while history shows that races average 28.30 overtakes. The last three years have an average of 79 overtakes.

The Canadian GP also has a high frequency for driver retirement. Over the past ten Canadian races seven drivers have been disqualified, while there has been an average of 6.7 retirements per race.

Tyres pushed to the limit

The teams will use the supersoft and medium Pirelli tyres, and will face a different challenge than at Monaco two weeks ago.

The Canadian GP is the hardest circuit on the cars’ brakes. With heavy braking areas and traction required to power out of the slow and medium corners, the tyres face a heavy demand.

Because it’s a street circuit, the surface has low-grip, causing cars to slide which increased tyre-wear. Knowing how to manage the tyres is crucial, while the demands of the track will almost certainly ensure cars are unable to carry out long stints. This conundrum could mean the teams are likely to split their strategies in order to cover every possibility.

Racing Drama allows for little correlation

After proving there was a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here), we have used the same model to examine the last ten Canadian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve as a race performance indicator.

It is no surprise – with plenty of overtaking opportunities, and a high frequency for retirements – that the Canadian GP has the weakest correlation (0.37) of the tracks raced at so far this season.

Canada, despite having the weakest correlation thus far, sees 50% of races with a correlation above 0.5, which showcases that qualifying provided a reasonable predictor of a drivers’ race performance. However, just 30% of drivers finishing on pole in the past 10 Canadian GPs have won the race, with the last being Lewis Hamilton in 2010.

Another point worth noting is that because the circuit is semi-permanent, there is a high level of circuit evolution over the weekend, with the lap times getting progressively quicker as more rubber is laid down. This is worth noting if betting on qualifying, as teams last to post a qualifying lap could have the best chance of securing pole position for the race on Sunday.

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*Odds subject to change