12 French Open trends for Roland Garros

12 French Open trends for Roland Garros

By Michael Gales May 17, 2013

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The 46th French Open of the modern era begins on May 26th on the clay of Roland Garros. But who will win what many consider the toughest Grand Slam? Read these 12 French Open trends for a statistical insight into betting on the second major of the year.

1 – French winner

There has only been one French Open winner of the Open era (Since 1968). When Yannick Noah secured the title 30 years ago against Mats Wilander, no one would have imagined that the French would still be waiting 45 years later for a second champion.

Interestingly, it’s not the home players but ones from Spain and South America that tend to have an advantage in the French Open, due to their experience on clay courts. This is evident in recent results: 13 of the last 16 male champions were from the aforementioned regions.

World No. 8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the best-priced Frenchman to end the drought at 66.920*, while Gilles Simon is offered at 279.850*.

3 –Australian/French Open Double

Only three players – Rod Laver 1969, Mats Wilander 1988 and Jim Courier 1992 – have gone on to win the French Open after claiming the Australian Open earlier in the same year.

This doesn’t bode well for Novak Djokovic, who won the Australian Open in January. The Serbian is available at 2.740* to go one better than last year when he lost in the final to Rafael Nadal after wining the 2012 Australian Open.

5 – Lefties advantage at Roland Garros

There have been 25 different winners at the French Open since 1968, five of which have been left-handed – Rafael Nadal, Rod Lever, Andres Gomez, Thomas Muster and Guillermo Vilas.

Clay is considered an advantage to left-handed players, as their top spin-heavy forehands bounce high onto their opponents backhand, making returning a left-hander much more difficult.

Spain’s second-most famous left-hander Fernando Verdasco has odds of 289.990*.

7 – Nadal the ‘King of Clay’

Rafael Nadal is the defending champion after winning a record 7th French Open title last year against Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard has also picked up 40 clay-court titles in his career – the joint-second highest.

Interestingly, Nadal will be seeded fifth for the tournament after taking six months out through injury. Pinnacle Sports has Nadal as the 2.000* favourite to claim his eighth title.

8 – Finals: short but sweet

Eight of the 45 previous finals have gone to five sets. The last final to go the distance came in 2004 when Gastn Gaudio fought back from 2-0 down to beat Guillermo Coria 8-6 in the final set.

17 – Youngest winner

1989 saw American Michael Chang cause a major upset when he claimed the French Open title at the tender age of 17. Chang beat Sweden’s Stefan Edberg in five sets to win his only major championship.

At the other end of the spectrum, Andrs Gimeno became the oldest French Open winner in 1972 when he beat Patrick Proisy 3-1 at the age of 34.

40% – Non-European winners

40% of all French Open winners come from outside of Europe. However, In the last 20 years at the French Open, only 30% have been non-European, with the last winner being Gastn Gaudio in 2004.

Argentinian Juan Martin Del Potro is best priced with Pinnacle Sports at 26.360* to win his second major title.

50% – Expect less aces

Clay is a significantly different surface to the hard courts normally associated with the ATP Tour – the ball comes onto the racket much slower, so the number of aces are reduced.

The world’s top five players see an average reduction in aces of 50% on clay compared to hardcourts.

Rodger Federer has the least differential drop-off between surfaces, with 34.7% less aces on clay than on hardcourts. The Swiss can be backed as the fourth favourite at 15.270*.

Third favourite Andy Murray is available at 15.210*, however it is worth noting that the Brit has only reached the semi-final stage once.

64.7% – Average break points saved by Top 5 at French Open

A clay surface slows the ball down and creates a better opportunity to return serve than any other surface, resulting in more break point opportunities. Saving these break points can prove pivotal in winning and losing a game, which is why the top five players save an average of 64.7% break points against them – Nadal (70.20%), Federer (65.90%), Djokovic (64%), Murray (62.10%) and Ferrer (59.50%).

98% – Nadal’s French Open win percentage

Nadal is the most successful player in the Open era at the French Open, partially because of his outstanding win rate. With just one defeat against his name and 52 wins, he’s won 98% of his contests on France’s red clay.

393 – Longest game

393 minutes is the longest recorded game at the French Open. It came in the first round the 2004 French Open between French players Fabrice Santoro and Arnaud Clment. The game was recorded at six hours 33 minutes, and ended with Santoro wining 16-14 in the final set.

5,407 – Nadal’s points

In eight French Open tournaments Nadal has scored an incredible 5407 points and conceded 4079 – a positive difference of 1328 points, which shows Nadal scores 32.6% more points than his opposition. That number becomes more remarkable when compared to Djokovic’s stats (W: 4252, L: 3626, Dif: 626) in the same time period – just 17.2% more points than his opponents.

Click here for the latest ATP French Open odds (and here for the WTA French Open odds).

French Open Live Betting – 1st Round Limits Raised to $2,000

Pinnacle Sports has raised the limits for next game betting to $2,000 for the 1st round of the French Open, up from $250. These limits increase throughout the tournament, so tennis live betting fans can now bet even more and stay in the action.

The French Open will also see the launch of live spread and live totals betting for tennis matches, which will be posted during changeovers in addition to the money line at every changeover.

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*Odds subject to change