среда, 10 июля 2013 г.

Ashes Betting: First Test Statistics

KP can get amongst the runs on his return to the side at a ground he enjoys.

Jaymes Monte looks through the archives and picks out his best bets for the first Ashes Test of the summer, based on the statistics...

Look who's back, KP's back...

Not many of England's batsmen have too many happy memories of playing Test match cricket at Trent Bridge. Alastair Cook has a high score of 43 in 11 innings here, Jonathan Trott has a high score of 38 in six innings and Ian Bell has only once gone past 50 - although he did go on to score 159 on that occasion - and has four single-figure scores in nine innings.

Kevin Pietersen, on his comeback from injury, can, however, recall some good experiences at Trent Bridge. KP is in the top 20 all-time run scorers at the ground having amassed 465 here, and has also scored a century and two 50s, as well as a couple of scores in the 40s, in his 13 innings.

Of course the recent return from injury is a factor, but based on statistics alone Pietersen is way out in front in comparison to his teammates. At odds of 5.04/1 the Surrey man represents good value in the Top England Batsman market for this first test.

Best Bet: Back Pietersen top 1st Innings Runs Scorer @ 5.04/1

Hosts' strength lies with ball in hand...

If England's current crop of batsmen aren't too enamoured with Trent Bridge then equilibrium in the ranks is most certainly restored by the bowlers' fondness of the place.

Jimmy Anderson needs just three wickets to surpass Sir Alec Bedser as the all-time leading wicket taker here. Anderson has 39 wickets in just six Test matches at the Nottingham ground, at a brilliant average of 17.74 including four five-wicket efforts and one ten-wicket haul - against Pakistan in 2010.

Stuart Broad also, naturally, enjoys it here. The Nottingham lad has taken 18 wickets in four matches on his home ground, while Tim Bresnan has taken 15 Test wickets in just two matches here.

England have firepower, and plenty of options. But the sheer weight of numbers means that we can't look past the brilliant Anderson at odds of 4.57/2 to be the hosts' top wicket taker in the series. If he gets off to a flyer at Trent Bridge that price will soon come in.

Best Bet: James Anderson to be top England wicket taker in the series @ 4.57/2

Nott the happiest of hunting grounds...

In 10 Test matches at Trent Bridge, dating back to 2002, the average first innings total is 332.4, with no discernible difference between the team batting first and second. In that period England's bowlers have managed to restrict the opposition, on average, to less than 300, whereas England average 365.2 in first innings with the bat.

However, given what we have learned from above we have to put more faith in the current crop of England bowlers here than we do the batsmen. Look to lay 300 runs or more in Australia's first innings total market. Regardless of whether they bat first or second.

England's general record in Ashes Tests here isn't great. The three-wicket victory in the fourth Test of the 2005 Ashes series was the hosts' first Test match victory over Australia at Trent Bridge since 1977. And before you go rushing to back England to take a 1-0 series lead at odds of 2.01/1, it's also worth considering that England have not won the opening match of an Ashes series since 1997 - the last six-Test Ashes - with the last two ending in a draw.

Best Bet: Lay 300 runs or more Australia 1st Innings Runs

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