Eclipse Stakes: The Fugue to Eclipse rivals

The Fugue is a lot better than she could show at Ascot

It's the Eclipse on Saturday and Timeform's Tony McFadden brings you his preview of the race...

It's funny how much can change in 12 months. This time last year Camelot was the unbeaten three-year-old star with a Guineas and two Derby victories to his name; victory in the St Leger, which would secure the elusive Triple Crown, was widely presumed to be a formality. Al Kazeem, on the other hand, was sidelined by a pelvic injury, but, in truth, his absence wasn't especially noteworthy for he had never even competed at the top level. 

As we all know, Camelot was beaten in the St Leger and, having undergone Colic surgery over the winter, he has failed to replicate his best this season. In contrast, Al Kazeem has blossomed this term, returning from injury in better shape than ever, winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown with plenty in hand prior to turning over an odds-on Camelot on his way to securing a first Group 1 success in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Not everyone was convinced by Al Kazeem's credentials following success in that four-runner affair - Camelot was sent off as a well-backed favourite to overturn the form at Royal Ascot - but his Prince of Wales's Stakes win, in a race with plenty of depth, confirmed that he is a genuine top-level performer. Al Kazeem deservedly heads the Eclipse market as he bids to register a third Group 1 win within the space of six weeks, while Camelot is not certain to ever race again, his trainer, Aidan O'Brien, fearing that the spark has gone.

Plenty of different reasons have been put forward as to why Camelot has struggled this year - ranging from the effects of colic surgery to he was never 'that' good - but, whatever your view, it is difficult to make a case for him should he be allowed to take his chance, something the Betfair market suggests is increasingly unlikely, incidentally.

Al Kazeem, however, is a certain starter and his claims are obvious: he is a highly-likeable, genuine type that arrives at the top of his game and defeated two of his main rivals, Mukhadram and The Fugue, in the Prince of Wales's Stakes last time. James Doyle, a rising star of the weighing room, did well to overhaul the enterprisingly-ridden Mukhadram at Royal Ascot, looking alive to the danger as Paul Hanagan poached a couple of lengths turning for home, and his tactical awareness earned plenty of plaudits. In truth, Mukhadram was seen to maximum effect on that occasion and it would be a surprise were he capable of reversing the form, even allowing for the fact he is lightly raced for a four-year-old.
 
The Fugue, who finished a staying-on third at Ascot, was not given a particularly inspired ride, held up too far back as things transpired and left with a hopeless task. These are not just my pocket-talking ramblings, though, as the sectional times taken by Simon Rowlands back up the visual impression that The Fugue shaped better than the bare result. 

It is also worth noting that The Fugue was making her seasonal return at Royal Ascot and, though clearly fit enough to do herself justice in such a prestigious race, she was reportedly still in her coat, offering some hope that there may still be some improvement to come. Crucially, that Royal Ascot performance was by no means the only time The Fugue has confirmed herself as a Group 1 filly; she was an ultra-impressive winner of last year's Nassau Stakes and can be considered a shade unlucky not to have won the Oaks and the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, too. 

At current prices, there is certainly a case to be made for stating that The Fugue offers better value than Al Kazeem as, after all, there was only three and a half lengths to separate the pair at Ascot and she wasn't well placed, is entitled to come on for the run and her trainer, John Gosden, has hit a real purple patch of late.

Aidan O'Brien, in addition to Camelot, has also entered Declaration of War and Mars, with the last named of that trio the strongest in the Betfair market. The fact that Mars was actually trading as favourite for the Derby prior to making a winning racecourse debut at Dundalk last July would suggest that he has always been well regarded, and he has created a good impression on the racecourse as well as the gallops. 

Understandably, with just that one all-weather maiden under his belt, Mars lacked the experience to make an impact in the 2000 Guineas on his second start, but there was plenty to like about his subsequent efforts in the Derby and St James's Palace Stakes where he encountered trouble on both occasions. Having raced just four times, Mars is clearly still unexposed and open to further improvement, particularly as the 10-furlong trip - one he will be trying for the first time - could well prove to be his optimum. 

A further boost for Mars is the weight that he will receive from his elders. In theory, the weight-for-age allowance shouldn't provide any age group with an advantage, but, at this stage of the season and at this distance, the allowance the three-year-olds receive is generous.

Of the others, it is not impossible to make a case for Pastorius at the prices as the German raider only has a few pounds to find with his rivals. He does, however, have to bounce back from a rare poor run in Singapore last time and, on balance, others appear open to greater progress than Mario Hofer's charge. 

In summary, Al Kazeem deservedly heads the market for the Eclipse based on his performances this season and is the most likely winner of the race. A worthy but narrow victor at Royal Ascot, it is impossible to be negative about Al Kazeem's prospects, and he is likely to go well, but at 2.77/4 he doesn't offer any great value against a rival in The Fugue who is likely to be seen to better effect than last time and an intriguing three-year-old participant in Mars. Narrow preference would be for The Fugue, though Mars is a fascinating and feared opponent.

Recommendation:
Back The Fugue to win the Eclipse

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