First Ashes Test Betting: Starc and Pattinson to give England a fright

Finn and Bresnan are in line for the last bowling slot

Ed Hawkins previews the opening encounter of the Ashes summer, which starts at Trent Bridge on Wednesday, and he expects Australia's bowlers to cause a surprise or two

England v Australia
Start time: 11.00BST
TV: live on Sky Sports 1

England
The home side, No 3 in the ICC Test rankings, are expected to prove their superiority over the five-Test series against an Australia side rated one place below them. It is with the ball where their strength lies. James Anderson leads the pace attack which includes Steven Finn and Stuart Broad. Both have had injury worries this summer but are considered fit. Graeme Swann, the spinner, could however prove to be the difference between the sides. Tim Bresnan might have done enough to split up that fast-bowling trio. After a ton versus Essex in a warm-up England could ditch Finn. If they do, it will be an interesting insight into their mindset which would suggest they are worried about the depth of their batting. Joe Root will open the batting with Alastair Cook.

Australia
Australia have showed their hand early. Shane Watson and Chris Rogers will open the batting with Ed Cowan, the former opener, slotting in at No 3. Watson has shown terrific form in the warm-ups while Rogers, who has solid English experience from stints in county cricket, is averaging 50 so far. Michael Clarke will bat at No 4 followed by Phil Hughes. Steve Smith, the all-rounder, could play at No 6 and this rather highlight their weakness. Smith is not Test class. Peter Siddle, Mitchell Starc and James Pattinson are, however. That is the Australia pace attack and it is almost as impressive as England.

First-innings runs
The first-innings average in the last ten years (nine Tests) is 338. But be aware that the Trent Bridge venue offers assistance to the bowlers. In that sequence there have been some low scores. In 2011 England were bowled out for 211 v India and 198 against the same opposition in 2007. Six of those nine matches have been won by the side fielding first. That is a heavy toss bias which must be respected. There are more details on the vagaries of the TB surface here. But it is important enough to reckon that the flip is crucial. The wicket can deteriorate, not to mention assist the bowlers with swing. No rain is forecast.

Match odds
England are 1.9010/11 with Australia 4.10n/a and the draw 4.2016/5. This is as you would expect given the series odds. But Australia are our pick for this one and it is all down to the helpful Trent Bridge wicket. Granted, in Anderson - he averages 6.5 wickets per Test, making it his most successful ground - and the other pacers, England could wreck Australia. But just as England's bowlers are a threat here, so are Australia's. In that regard the surface is a great leveller. England have won seven of their last nine Tests here but they have also found to their cost how their greatest weapon can be turned against them. India in 2007 looked to be sitting ducks but they swung England to defeat. And a wearing pitch did for England against Sri Lanka the year before. In Starc and Pattinson Australia have two class performers. Starc is a left-armer who can exploit England's fallibility against that style of bowler while Pattinson swings it both ways. And let's not forget Siddle who is currently the No 1-ranked bowler in the world.

Top England runscorer
With 465 runs in seven matches the 5.104/1 chance Kevin Pietersen, fit again, is England's top runscorer in the last ten years. But there is a dearth of runs elsewhere. Ian Bell averages 31, Jonathan Trott 24 and Alastair Cook just 19. Indeed, with swing expected Cook and Joe Root, 4.707/2 and 5.409/2 respectively, are not fancies. They might be worth checking the 'to score a 50' market in the first innings for a lay.

Top Australia runscorer
Clarke represents good value at 4.30100/30 for honours. He is averaging 52.33 in Tests and 64 on the tour. He warmed up nicely with a century against Worcestershire, putting his back problems, literally, behind him. Clarke managed a half-century on his previous visit to TB. At 2.166/5 he is a nice price for a first-dig 50.

Recomended bet
Australia at 4.10n/a
M Clarke to score first-innings 50 at 2.166/5