Aldo favourite ahead of bout

Aldo favourite ahead of bout

By Michael Gales Jul 26, 2013

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UFC 163 comes from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro on August 3rd. The main event sees Jose Aldo defend his UFC Flyweight title on home soil against Chan Sung-Jung. Aldo is the big favourite with Pinnacle Sports but will need to be aware of Chan’s impressive submissions.

Aldo huge favourite to defend title against Sung-Jung

UFC Featherweight champion Jose ‘Junior’ Aldo is the heavy 1.144* favourite to defend his title against Chan ‘Korean Zombie’ Sung-Jung at UFC 163.

Brazilian Aldo was scheduled to fight lightweight Anthony Pettis before the latter pulled out due to a knee injury and was replaced by Sung-Jung. The champion will defend his title for the seventh time as he looks to extend his fantastic record of 22-1-0 and is currently on a 15 fight-winning streak.

Sung-Jung (13-3-0) enters the octagon as a 6.650* underdog, but has won his last three fights and has plenty of reasons to believe he can upset the odds in Brazil. Aldo has the advantage on the feet, but the challenger can rival him on the mat and is a dangerous submission fighter.

Both pugilists have an orthodox stance, and stand at 5’7 but the challenger will hold a two-inch reach advantage when they meet in the octagon.

Champion holds the striking advantage

Aldo has 13 KO wins (59%) in his career and is renowned as a ferocious striker who combines powerful punches, kicks and knees. His power and speed is phenomenal; the 45% accuracy and 3.46 strikes per minute make him one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA.

The ‘Korean Zombie’ may not be as powerful as Aldo, but uses awkward angles and creative timing to utilize his long reach, which has seen him KO 23% (3) of his victims in the past. Always a busy fighter – 4.61 strikes landed per minute – he has accuracy (43%) to match, while his ability to choose the right option in pressure situations is an asset as he vies for the title.

‘Junior’ absorbs just 1.91 strikes per minute and has a 73% defence compared to Sung-Jung who is tagged 3.77 times and has a weaker 64% defence – he has also been knocked out once in his career.

Expect Aldo to dictate the pace from the opening bell and keep the momentum rolling throughout.

Jung ready to clinch title

Aldo & Sung-Jung Fight Statistics

Striking

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Strikes landed per/min

3.46

4.61

Striking accuracy

45%

43%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.91

3.77

Defense

73%

64%

Grappling

Aldo

Sung-Jung

Takedown average/15min

0.63

1.57

Takedown accuracy

60%

80%

Takedown defence

92%

100%

Submission average/15min

0.1

1.26

Jung’s strongest chance of dictating the fight is in the clinch. He may not be known for his wrestling, but will look to get close to Aldo and implement a takedown – 83% takedown accuracy at an average of 1.57 takedowns per three rounds. The challenger showed his class in the clinch against Dustin Poirier by utilizing knees and elbows to set up his takedowns on his way to a win.

Aldo would prefer to be on his feet and will attempt to stand at a striking distance. However, he is comfortable in the clinch due to his Muay Thai background. Most importantly though, Aldo knows how to avoid trouble in the clinch and turn the fight back in his favour.

Ground battle could be key

At 26 Aldo is not going to turn into a submission specialist – he has two submission career wins and his sole defeat came when he tapped out. However, when Aldo finds himself on the ground he nullifies his opponent’s attacks.

Sung-Jung is as dynamic on the ground – averages 1.26 submission attempts every three minutes – as he is on his feet. He has submitted eight opponents with a range of attacks and it’s this diversity, which makes him a dangerous opponent on the mat.

Aldo will look to minimize the damage done on the mat and return to his feet as soon as possible, while Sung-Jung is likely to be the more aggressive.

Final thoughts

‘Junior’ will look to move in and out of range with a succession of striking combinations, while the challenger will aim to frustrate the champion and implement an intelligent game that utilizes his long reach to set up the clinch.

How Sung-Jung reacts to pressure from Aldo could determine the outcome. If he is goaded into a slugfest he will struggle but if he can keep calm and wait for a clinch and subsequent takedown, he has the ability on the ground to upset the odds and leave as the new UFC Featherweight champion.

Click here to see the latest UFC 163 odds.

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*Odds subject to change