Wimbledon Women's Betting: Is Lisicki a false favourite

Is Sabine Lisicki a false favourite to win the Women's Singles?

After tipping Sabine Lisicki pre-tournament as the player most likely to cause the demise of Serena Williams, Gary Boswell now asks whether the market has it correct in naming her favourite to lift the trophy...

I'm always on the look out for false favourites and wrong prices and despite being the one who tipped Sabine Lisicki pre-tournament for the Women's Wimbledon crown, I'm at the head of the queue now to take her on as she is both the hot favourite to win from the semi final stage (as low as 2.3211/8 now in the Outright Winner market) and the lowest ranked remaining player. Not often that you see that anomaly in a Grand Slam event.

The German is world ranked number 23 and she's that for a reason. Losses in the last 12 months include first round exits at the US and Australian Open and more recently, defeats against players outside the top 100 - to whit Alexandra Cadantu, Mallory Burdette and Bethany Mattek-Sands.

This inconsistency is perhaps best illustrated by a recent game against Petra Kvitova in Rome where she won 6-0 in the second set but lost the match in three sets. Typical Lisicki. Typical women's tennis you might say but not typical champion's tennis.

Is Lisicki really hot favourite and ready to take the crown? Certainly the way she played against Serena Williams - and to be fair, in previous rounds against Francesca Schiavone and Sam Stosur - you'd say yes and that is obviously what has turned the market's head. She is a better player on grass without doubt and she does have Wimbledon pedigree having made semi-final here before.

This is also a barmy year at Wimbledon and favourites have been falling like Jack and Jill for 10 days now. The presence of none of the top three seeds at the semi-final stage, after the French Open had them all, was hard to see coming (although I am ever hopeful as a punter!).

And if ever there was a year for Lisicki to win, this is it but that does also apply to Marion Bartoli and Agnieska Radwanska both of whom have the greater Wimbledon pedigree having both made the final before. Kirsten Flipkens also has reason to hope as she is higher ranked than Lisicki!

The market seems to me to be saying that Lisicki's serve makes her a shoo in. I state categorically that it does not. It will get returned by Radwanska with much of the pace taken off and will thus require a much different second shot than that used to see off Williams. Lisicki's game is nowhere near as rounded overall as the Pole's. Radwanska has drop shot, volley, lob, sliced backhand and forehand in her locker as well as that remarkable knee bend groundshot that is also possessed in the men's game by Novak Djokovic.

She's a great defender as she showed in last year's final against Williams and will find Lisicki easier to cope with in comparison. Lisicki does have mobility issues and although these have looked sharper at Wimbledon 2013, they were in question throughout the preliminary tournament at Edgbaston where she lost to Alison Riske and also a set that I watched closely against Mirja Lucic-Baroni.

Radwanska will be much, much tougher than either of those.

Lisicki could rise to the occasion of course. She has impressed me too with her performances at Wimbledon. She has the serve and the grass court game. She could win but she is my outsider of four to do so.

Radwanska might carry a thigh injury which will help the German's cause and she has a 3-1 head-to-head plus over Bartoli which will also help if she makes the final. But she is also very capable of that drift of form that you see often in women's tennis. With her it only needs the serve to be slightly off. That happens and Radwanska - the justifiable world number four for over 18 months now - will slaughter her.

Sound like a 2.3211/8 favourite of four to you? She's 5.59/2 in my market!