Against All Odds: SV Ried to clip Red Bull's wings

It will likely be hugs of commiseration come full time for Red Bull

Red Bull Salzburg are odds-on for their trip to SV Ried in the Austrian Bundesliga this evening but Paul Robinson thinks the visitors won't be in for an easy ride.

SV Ried have slipped to sixth after a nightmare run of three defeats in five, including two in the last three. They're still within touching distance of the European places but they really need to start winning to close the gap with just two games to go.

In fairness to Michael Angerschmid's side, all those defeats came away from home and their record at the Keine Sorgen Arena is pretty decent. They have picked up 10 points from a possible 12 recently and have lost just three of their last dozen - winning seven of them.

Red Bull Salzburg should be resigned to the fact that they won't be retaining their title. They are six points adrift of Austria Vienna with just two games to go so not only will they have to win both of theirs, Vienna must lose their two. The one lifeline is that the pair meet on the final day in Salzburg, but it's doubtful AV will fall to a home defeat tonight at the hands of seventh placed Mattersburg.

Roger Schmidt will of course send his team out to win, but when the news starts filtering through that the result is inconsequential, the players may well take their foot off the gas. There's no denying that Red Bull are in fine form - seven straight wins and no defeat since November - but it's definitely worth pointing out that that reverse came at this very ground against tonight's opponents.

SV Ried have been struggling on the road of late but they are still a formidable outfit at home. Their task of reaching the European places is much more doable than Salzburg's task of overhauling Austria Vienna and I think that could probe a key factor. Therefore with Red Bull Salzburg trading around the 1.855/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Red Bull Salzburg v SV Ried @ 1.855/6 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 141 pts
Returned: 128.41 pts
P/L – 12.59 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)