The Memorial Tournament: Tiger's odds still worth taking, says The Punter

Tiger is easily the man to beat this week says The Punter

Backing a player at such a short price pre-tournament is not to everyone's liking, but The Punter has weighed up all the factors and believes Tiger Woods is still a fair price to win this week...

Tournament History

First staged in 1976, the event is hosted by Jack Nicklaus on a course he built on land he bought in the 1960's. This will be the 38th renewal of the Memorial Tournament - Jack's tournament.

Venue

Muirfield Village, Dublin Ohio

Course Details
Par 72 -7,366 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 - 73.43

Muirfield Village Golf Club is named after course designer and owner Jack Nicklaus' favourite Open Championship venue. It's a proper test and is always considered a good warm-up event for the forthcoming US Open.

The fairways are fairly generous but the rough is demanding and the greens are tough to find from the long grass, and that's pretty important as it's a tricky place to get up-and-down.

There are 73 bunkers and water comes into play on 11 holes. The greens are undulating and at 13 on the stimpmeter, very fast. Once again, this will get the players nicely tuned-up for the year's next major in two weeks time.

Muirfield Village will also host the Presidents Cup in October.

Useful Sites

Event Site
Course Details
Course Map
Tee Times
Twitter Link
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all for days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday.

Last Five Winners

2012 - Tiger Woods -9
2011 - Steve Stricker -16
2010 - Justin Rose -18
2009 - Tiger Woods -12
2008 - Kenny Perry -8

What will it take to win the Memorial Tournament?

Without doubt the key stat is Driving Accuracy. Although the fairways are fairly generous missing them spells disaster and at a ranking of 17th last year, Tiger Woods was the first winner in eight years to rank outside the top-ten for fairways hit.

This is again one of those weeks where accuracy will win over power and a good scrambling game won't go amiss.

The last four players to top the scrambling stats at the event have finished in the top-five.

In-Play Tactics

The front nine is much easier than the back nine and it's a case of making your score early and hanging on. Two years ago, Steve Stricker went on to win the event despite playing the back-nine in four over par and he failed to make a single birdie there all weekend.

This is yet another event where a fast start is essential. In the last 15 years, only Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk have managed to win the event from any further back than four shots after day one. But that's a really bizarre stat, given that five of the last six winners were at least three back with a round to go...

If recent history is anything to go by, it might just be worth taking on the third round leader. They used to have a very solid record but only one of the last six (Steve Stricker in 2012) has managed to do hold on for victory. Stricker won by a single stroke, having led by three through 54 holes, but the other five winners since 2006 had all been at least three back with a round to go. K.J Choi, in 2007, was fully five back, Kenny Perry, a year later, three and the other three all trailed by four with a round to go.

Muirfield Village has a very strong finish and given the above record of third round leaders, anyone that gets into the house either leading, tied for the lead, or even one back, may be worth backing. Last year, holes 16, 17 and 18 ranked 1st, 4th and 5th hardest and in 2011 they ranked the three hardest on the course.

Unsurprisingly, the four long holes, 5, 7, 11 and 15 consistently rank as the four easiest.

Market Leaders

There's no doubt or debate surrounding who should be favourite this week, the only question is what price should he be?

Defending champion, Tiger Woods, has won four of the seven PGA Tour events he's played this season and he's won this event five times in 13 attempts. His victory last time out at the Players Championship was particularly noteworthy as his record at the host course, Sawgrass, was ordinary.

Second favourite, Rory McIlroy's performance at Wentworth last week, where he missed the cut for the second year in-a-row, was much maligned but I wouldn't read that much into it. He got the worst of the draw and has a poor record in the event anyway, and I expect a much improved effort this week. He missed the cut here last year but prior to that had shown a liking to the course. Tied 10th on debut was a decent effort in 2010 and he led after day one twelve months later before going on to finish fifth.

Selections

When Tiger Woods took the title twelve months ago, thanks largely to this incredible birdie on the hardest hole on the course, the par 3 16th, he did so when seemingly out of form. How quickly things change, Luke Donald, who missed the cut by miles at Wentworth last week, was the favourite here last year. This time around he's available at 50.049/1, and given how poor he played in Surrey last week, that's not overly generous.

It's not often I disagree with Paul Krishnamurty but this is one of those rare occasions. Tiger has shortened up all week so far but that's only because he opened-up too big. Given all the evidence we have, if this event was played out three times, Tiger would win it at least once and I believe, although it looks short, anything over 3.02/1 is still fair.

I totally understand that taking a shade over 3.02/1 about anyone prior to the off in a competitive PGA Tour event is not everyone's cup of tea but I thought he was a fair price on Sunday and early on Monday, so I've got him onboard at a decent wager.

My only other selection is Rickie Fowler, who has already hit the front here twice in three years. The orange-clad wonder-boy is always seen at his best on the toughest of venues and I can see him contending again this week at a sporting price.

Selections

Tiger Woods @ 3.711/4
Rickie Fowler @ 70.069/1

*I'm away on holiday this week so there'll be no In-Play Blog but I'll be back on Monday with a De-Brief. Mike Norman will provide a half-way update on both events however.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter