четверг, 30 мая 2013 г.

Epsom Derby: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Dawn Approach is sure to be a red-hot favourite

Timeform analyse the chances of each runner in the 2013 Derby... 

Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.

Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.

Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.

Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.

Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.

Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler's Rock. Not beaten far in 1m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.

Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.

Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.

Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.

Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn't beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.

Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.

Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dawn Approach
2. Mars
3. Chopin

Timeform View: The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom. Ballydoyle will clearly have a major say over how matters unfold with Mars and Battle of Marengo arguably the pick of their hopefuls, while Chopin, the first-ever German-trained runner in the race, can also reach the frame.

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