Nordea Masters: Ballantine's form and Driving Distance key, says The Punter

Bernd Wiesberger - The Punter's main pick this week

The Punter has spotted some crucial form links between a tournament played earlier in the season on the European Tour and this week's Nordea Masters. And with length off the tee also crucial, here's who Steve thinks can go well in Sweden...

Tournament History

Originally called the Scandinavian Masters, the Nordea Masters was first played as recently as 1991 but in its short history, some illustrious names have taken the title. Colin Montgomerie won the inaugural event, Nick Faldo 12 months later, last year's winner, Lee Westwood, has won it three times in three decades, Luke Donald was successful in 2004, and major winners, Vijay Singh, Graeme McDowell and Adam Scott have all also won it.

Venue

Bro Hof Slott Golf Club (Stadium Course), Stockholm, Sweden

Course Details
Par 72 - 7,607yards (Check)
Stroke Index in 2012 - exactly 72 strokes

Touted as a future Ryder Cup venue and staging the event for the fourth year in-a-row, the Robert Trent Jones Jr designed Bro Hof Slott only opened in September 2007. It's a long and very wind-exposed track with five par 5's. The back nine weaves its way beautifully through fjords and the par 3 17th has an island green a la Sawgrass, so water is most definitely in-play. The fairways are of average width but they need to be found as the rough is fairly penal. The greens have a lot of run-off areas so players will have to hit plenty of accurate approach shots and/or scramble really well. Last year they ran at 10.8 on the stimpmeter.

Useful Sites

Event Site
Course Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky sports all four days, starting at 10.00am on Thursday

Last Five Winners

2012 - Lee Westwood -19
2011 - Alex Noren -15
2010 - Richard S Johnson -11
2009 - Ricardo Gonzalez -10
2008 - Peter Hanson -9

What will it take to win the Nordea Masters?

At over 7,600 yards long, it almost goes without saying that being able to drive it long is a big advantage around Bro Hof Slott - Westwood ranked second for driving distance last year and Alex Noren ranked seventh in 2011. All three winners at the venue have played the par 5's in double-digits under par for the week so driving distance and par five performance are two stats to consider carefully.

In breezy weather it's a brute of a course so keep a close eye on the weather and look to the wind-specialists if it's forecast to blow hard.

Is there an angle in?

There appears to be a strong correlation between this venue and Blackstone in Korea, home of the Ballantine's Championship. Both events have only staged three events apiece but already there are a number of players that have shown a liking for both courses. Westwood has won at both, Noren arguably should have done so and this year's Ballantine's champ, Brett Rumford finished tied fourth at Bro Hof Slott in 2010.

Is there an identikit winner?

Three Swedes that have won the event in the last five years so the home contingency deserves close scrutiny and it might make sense to concentrate on the fancied runners...

There have been a couple of shock winners of the event lately with Marc Warren in 2006 and Ricardo Gonzalez three years later, both going off at big prices but as detailed earlier, some famous names have won this title and most years the winner comes from fairly near the top of the market. Westwood was favourite when winning 12 months ago.

In-Play Tactics

If the first three events here are anything to go by, concentrate on the front-runners.

Westwood was in front by halfway last year and powered away to win by five strokes and two years ago, Noren won wire-to-wire by seven strokes, despite a final round 77 in very windy conditions. Incredibly, he was 11 clear with a round to go! And R S Johnson was never far away three years ago - he was second at halfway and in front after round three.

Market Leaders

Noren is a perfectly obvious favourite at an entirely reasonable price. His course form is there for all to see and he's in reasonable form. He'll be disappointed to have narrowly failed to qualify for the US Open at Monday's Walton Heath qualifier but I'm sure he'll put that behind him soon enough. He has a sound chance, he's a fair price and I wouldn't put anyone off him.

Second favourite, Francesco Molinari, has to lift himself after a disappointing weekend at Wentworth and third favourite, Matteo Manassero has to bring himself back down to earth after winning the BMW PGA Championship in Surrey.

Both Italians are known for their accuracy rather than their power and the fact that neither man has played here before won't help either and neither make much appeal.

Peter Hanson was Westwood's main adversary in last year's renewal, eventually finishing third but he's had niggling issues with his neck for months now and had to withdraw before the off last week and might prove a risky proposition, should he start.

Selections

I've had Bernd Wiesberger in mind for this tournament for a very long time, as he has just the right game for the venue.

The 2012 Ballantine's champ started the year sluggishly but following a fifth placed finish in Morocco, with a respectable defence in Korea (31st) and a win in Indonesia, where he ranked first for driving distance and greens hit and sixth for putting, he's finally starting to show some form. Last week's top-12 finish at Wentworth was a more than satisfactory effort, given the course probably isn't an ideal fit for the big-hitting Austrian and that he'd missed the cut there in 2012, when his game was in fine fettle.

I don't know what happened at Walton Heath on Monday, where he followed up a solid 67 with a sorry 77 to miss out on qualification but I'm happy to overlook one bad round and I was happy enough to take 34.033/1. He missed the cut on debut here in 2011 and finished tied 17th 12 months ago.

I came unstuck with an American-based Swede last year when I backed Jonas Blixt who missed the cut but I'm going to try another one this year.

Henrik Norlander plies his trade on the PGA Tour, having gained his card at the PGA's Qualifying School last year. He averages 295 yards off the tee in the States this year so he fits the long driving angle-in and he should know the course really well, as Bro Hof is his affiliated club.

With two missed cuts from two starts in the event he hasn't exactly demonstrated his course knowledge yet but he'll be a more confident and accomplished player this year after playing on the biggest stage of all and at a triple-figure price, I thought he was worth a small wager.

Third up is the fast-improving young Dane, Morten Orum Madsen, who's had quite a couple of weeks. After winning the DAT Masters on the little-known ECCO Tour, after shooting 63 in the final round to win by four, he came up just shy at the Madeira Islands Open two weeks ago, where he hit an unfortunate double-bogey at the final hole to lose by two. But his biggest achievement over the last few weeks, and one that will surely give him a huge boost, is his qualification at Walton Heath on Monday.

I'm not sure I'm getting a fantastic price at 110.0109/1 but he has the right game for the course, is in brilliant form and is improving fast. That might look big in a few months time but I'm hoping it looks big on Sunday!

Selections

Bernd Wiesberger @ 34.033/1
Henrik Norlander @ 100.099/1
Morten Orum Madsen @ 110.0109/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter