The Punter's In-Play Blog: Molinari shows the way but the value may lay elsewhere

Francesco Molinari – the halfway leader at Wentworth

We've reached the halfway stage at Wentworth and Steve's excited about some very big prices available. Is he right? Can someone come from off the pace again and win at a massive price?

22.00 - May 24, 2011
After two long, wet and windy days at Wentworth, we've finally reached the halfway stage of the BMW PGA Championship and on a score of -6, Francesco Molinari sits atop of a bunched leaderboard that doesn't include Ryder Cuppers, Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, Ian Poulter or Paul Lawrie - who have all missed the cut.

Those that availed themselves of the plentiful 60.059/1 available on Monday about Molinari will be on good terms with themselves but the rest of us need to weigh-up whether we want to now take 6.411/2 about the accurate Italian.

Although he never convinces me in contention, his record when leading an event at this stage is fair enough. He's held the halfway lead three times and he's won once and finished second twice but he's not for me. I considered taking the said 60.059/1 myself at the beginning of the week, having watched him play superbly for two days last week at the Volvo Match Play Championship but he turned in a decidedly average performance in his quarter-final tie with Thomas Aiken last Saturday and I'd worry he could switch off again tomorrow.

It's not just his record in-the-mix, or last week's brilliant to woeful trick that puts me off backing Molly, take a look at this series of numbers...

4, 4, 7,-3, 8, 6,-2, 5, 0, 4

That intriguing little list is the number of shots that the eventual winner has been behind (or in front) at halfway of this tournament since 2003. If Anders Hanson can come from eight back to win, as he did in 2007, then in theory, anyone that's made the cut this week can do so too - especially when you consider the relatively weak looking leaderboard.

Trailing Molly by one is George Coetzee, who's still looking for his first European Tour win, and three players who haven't won anywhere in over five years. Marc Warren, Mark Foster and Alejandro Canizares, who is still not 100% having been recently struck down by viral meningitis, have years of experience but just four wins between them and I'm not in any sort of hurry to back any of them.

Two back on -4 are English youngster, Eddie Pepperell, who if today is anything to go by, won't lack for support tomorrow and the man I fancy is the best bet at this stage - Matteo Manassero.

One of my pre-event wagers, Ernie Els, is in the group of six, that includes Lee Westwood, on -3 and I've added a few others.

I backed Thomas Bjorn this morning at 26.025/1, just before he started dropping shots like confetti and I've also backed Manassero this evening at 13.012/1, as well as a couple of outsiders...

Gregory Havret, one of those on -3, shouldn't be as big as 120.0119/1 and as eluded to, I can see a few players from off the pace getting involved here and for starters, Bernd Wiesberger, who played the back nine in four under par today, looks a quite frankly massive price at 350.0349/1. And I've also taken 120.0119/1 about Francesco's brother Eddy and 210.0209/1 about Alvaro Quiros. All of those prices are just far too big given the circumstances and have to be taken.

I may add one or two more before round three begins and if I do I'll post again when I do.

Over at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, yesterday's plans have gone out of the window. When I looked last night, the forecast was for a blustery afternoon, following a calm morning, but that's not been the case. Play was suspended for a while thanks to thunder and the afternoon starters are only just getting underway now.

I've had one in-running play there too, backing veteran Steve Flesch at a ridiculously big 240.0239/1 just before the weather delay. He was then, and still is now, one off the lead.

23.10 - May 23, 2011
After a short break in play due to thunder, five groups are yet to finish round one of the BMW PGA Championship. They'll resume again in the morning at 8.30am and the round two tee-times begin as planned at 7.00am.

South Africa's James Kingston, playing in the event thanks to an invite, is the early pace-setter after a first round six under par 66. He's one clear of Mikko Ilonen and two clear of Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Scott Henry and Austria's Martin Wiegele, who still has five holes to play.

It looks likely that today's late starters, that managed to get finished, have had the best of the draw. When play resumed after the break the wind had dropped and scoring appeared easier. Gonzo certainly felt he'd gotten a break.

"It wasn't an easy day. I think we've been quite lucky at the end. I've been expecting worse weather than we had at the end, and I played nicely. "

Today was tough but tomorrow's set to be tougher, with blustery weather forecast, and I'm going to wait for now and see what the conditions are.

It was a disappointing first day for my pre-event picks, with only Branden Grace and Richard Sterne breaking par, and I really don't think I needed to put a saver on defending champ, Luke Donald. He had an appalling day and of those that have completed round one, only the unheralded trio of James Whatley, JB Hansen and Scott Henderson hit a worse round than Luke. Tied 143rd after a dire 78 wasn't quite what was expected of the former world number one.

I haven't had a good day across the pond at the Crowne Plaza Invitational either. Best of my pre-event picks is John Huh, who shot a four under par 66, but he trails first round leader Ryan Palmer by four strokes and the rest of my picks were poor. Defending champion, Zach Johnson, did manage to break par but his current odds of 65.064/1 aren't tight.

I think I caught a bad break with the draw here, with all five of mine drawn early-late. The forecast suggests tomorrow afternoon is going to be worse than it was today and when the stagger unwinds at halfway, I won't be surprised if the other side of the draw have been favoured.

I'll be keeping tabs on the forecast tomorrow and if it still looks likely that that the wind is going to be blowing hard tomorrow afternoon, I may look to get a few of the morning starters onside as they finish up.

As detailed in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, a fast start is essential here so backing those in the house and up on the pace before the afternoon starters get blown away tomorrow, should be the way to go.

BMW PGA Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Luke Donald @ 9.617/2
Branden Grace @ 55.054/1
Ernie Els @ 70.069/1
Richard Sterne @ 70.069/1 (Fixed Odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 80.079/1
Brett Rumford @ 120.0119/1

In-Play Bets
Thomas Bjorn @ 26.025/1
Matteo Manassero @ 13.012/1
Gregory Havret @ 120.0119/1
Eddy Molinari @ 120.0119/1
Alvaro Quiros @ 210.0209/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 350.0349/1

Crowne Plaza Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Zach Johnson @ 19.018/1 (Fixed Odds)
Martin Laird @ 46.045/1 (Fixed Odds)
John Huh @ 51.0n/a (Fixed Odds)
Ben Crane @ 55.054/1
Brian Gay @ 170.0169/1

In-Play Bet
Steve Flesch @ 240.0239/1
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