Derby and Oaks Betting 2013: The Irish view on the Epsom action

Battle Of Marengo is Tony's Derby selection

Tonk Keenan runs the rule over the Irish contenders for this weekend's two Classics at Epsom, The Derby and The Oaks...

When backing a horse around 2.35/4 one needs almost everything in your favour and that clearly isn't the case with Dawn Approach in Saturday's Derby; there are doubts about his stamina and the value of what he achieved in the 2,000 Guineas. The positives with him are clear to see: his form is the best, he has improved for each step up in trip, he races like one that will get the distance so there is a chance he will prove another Sea The Stars, capable of his best over every trip.

The dam side of his breeding would not support this however - a mile likely to prove his optimum going by the distaff - and Jim Bolger went through 2012 saying he was a Guineas not a Derby horse, the impression being he has been swayed to this race by the owner.

Then there is the weakness of the Newmarket form; a 150/1 shot second, the third well beaten since, Toronado seemingly not running to form. That a Derby trial winner (Magician) could so easily dispatch the three-year-old milers in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last weekend suggests the crop is not all it might be and while Dawn Approach is a long way clear of the remainder there are enough question marks to oppose him at the price.

Sadly, Magician won't be at Epsom on Derby Day, the race seemingly coming too soon after his Curragh romp. But this son of Galileo is certainly worth keeping an eye on this season with his mediocre juvenile form perhaps enabling us to back him at a better price than his three-year-old form warrants.

Battle Of Marengo was my long-term fancy for this race though he seems the right price now; his Derrinstown win was visually unimpressive though High Chaparral was similarly workmanlike in that race prior to his win here. That he has long been seen as the Ballydoyle number one has to be a plus in a year when the yard have won all the meaningful trials with the exception of the Dante and there's a lot to like about his overall profile; he is likely to stay, seems to handle any ground and just keeps winning.

Of the others, Ocovango has to improve to win and his jockey's inexperience around the track is a negative whereas Chopin is difficult to weigh up. Libertarian never travelled in the Dante and it's hard to see him getting way with that here whereas Mars has at least a stone to find, the Guineas form is weak and he may not handle the track having not come down the hill well at Newmarket for all that the adaptability to the track angle can be overdone.

The Oaks is a poor renewal with just four of the entries having a triple-figure official rating coming into the race and chances are it won't take a big performance to win it.

Secret Gesture is the highest rated on Timeform figures with 126p but it can pay to be sceptical of wide-margin, heavy ground winners and she's unproven on a faster surface with the dam side of her family saying mud-lark. She looks short enough at current prices.

Similar comments apply to Liber Nauticus for all that her trainer commands maximum respect in races like this; she may find this coming to early in her development and I find it hard to back a tail-swisher like Banoffee in any race, much less a classic.

Moth looks the one then. She shaped like the best horse in the 1,000 Guineas and while that was a moderate renewal it is still Group 1 form that has worked out through Just The Judge. She handles fast ground and is bred for the step up in trip, shaping that way at Newmarket too though not without a turn-of-foot. Like Magician, she's a different proposition in 2013 and when these O'Brien fillies start improving they can be hard to stop.

If there is to be an upset in the race then perhaps Talent could provide it; at very least she should out-run her odds. Her last win looks decent form in this context and is on an upward curve; she looks overpriced due to be being stable second string after Secret Gesture.

Recommended Bets

Back Battle Of Marengo (if not done so previously) in the Derby
Back Moth and a saver on Talent in the Oaks