Jamie Lynch's Derby Preview: Staying with the family

Dawn Approach's stamina will be put to the test in the Derby

What's the key race ahead of this year's Derby? Is it the Guineas, or the Derrinstown, or the Dante? Jamie Lynch suggests it may in actual fact be a maiden hurdle at Limerick in 2005 as he unravels the pivotal issue of the race...

On April 24th, the day of the inconsequential Derby Trial at Epsom, the wider racing world paid tribute at the passing of a horse who changed the face of breeding, Storm Cat. The sire of over 100 Graded winners, including eight champion racehorses, Storm Cat's fee, at his height, was $500,000, though as many as 91 of his yearlings sold for $1m or more. His legacy lives on, by bloodline but also by name, with related 'Cats' still purring and pursing around the globe today. 

Two such 'Cats', Fantasticat and Danticat, a son and grandson respectively of Storm Cat, met one July evening in a two-year-old maiden at Tipperary in 2003. Danticat emerged on top, but from then on the pair took very different paths: a tale of two kitties, you could say. 

While Danticat's career consisted of pot-hunting around Ireland, picking up low-grade handicaps, including over hurdles, Fantasticat took off once rerouted to his spiritual home in the USA, winning the Super Derby - yes, the Super Derby - at Louisiana and ending up in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 

He could be a key piece of evidence in the specific conundrum of this year's Derby at Epsom, 'he' being not the Super Derby winner but the humble pot-hunter.

Danticat is out of Colonial Debut, making him a half-brother to Hymn of The Dawn and, crucially therefore, a near-relation of Dawn Approach, effectively his uncle. In Danticat, here we have a horse who, by Tale of The Cat, was bred to be a miler, but showed sufficient stamina to win at an extended mile-and-a-half on the Flat and as far as two miles over hurdles; and stamina, and stamina alone, is the will-he-won't-he riddle over Dawn Approach in the Derby. And it is a riddle.

What needs economising when it's at a premium, no doubt.
And what can you run out of, but not run without.
What proof was in Rum but was lacking in Whisky.
What goes down even when saved, making stretching it risky?  

Stamina. That's what makes the Derby the ultimate test, as it challenges endurance as well as ability. Nobody is questioning Dawn Approach's ability, and nobody is questioning his would-be stamina from the male line of his pedigree, which, from three generations back, reads Sadler's Wells, Derby winner (Galileo), Derby winner (New Approach). The doubt lies elsewhere, principally in the other half of his breeding. 

Naturally, there is a fear-factor involved in a horse going four furlongs further than he's ever been before, especially against rivals that are guaranteed to improve for the distance, but the sceptic squadron who are gunning for the distaff side of Dawn Approach's pedigree - the dambusters as we'll call them - are perhaps overlooking the starker evidence, including Danticat's testimony for the defence. 

Dawn Approach goes into the Derby with a Timeform rating (132) that, in the last 25 years, only Generous and Workforce have surpassed in actually winning the race. That's how exceptional he already is. By Timeform reckoning, Dawn Approach has upwards of 11 lb in hand of the Derby pack, the equivalent of around six lengths, giving him some leeway for a 'get away if not quite stay' performance. I think he'll stay, which is all that can be said. It's impossible to know or to be forthright, but you can put a price on it. 

If the Derby was run over a mile, or even a mile and a quarter, Dawn Approach would be nearer 1.42/5, reflective more of his proven ability and less of his invisible stamina. As it is, he's around 2.0421/20, suggesting it's 50/50, a coin toss, as to whether he stays or not. It's not though, is it? But neither is it as simple as all that...

The Racemakers will be out in force at Epsom, but the ones with a Qipco jacket and vainglorious smile will be put into the shade when the true, blue-ticked Racemakers roll into town: Ballydoyle. These are the boys who can really make and shape a race for you. They will have a plan to beat Dawn Approach, and however many horses it takes, betting without the one (most probably Flying The Flag) in there to set 'a nice, even tempo', in the same way that McDonalds likes to provide nice, even food.  
 
The faster they go, the greater the stamina test, the better for their stayers, and the worse for Dawn Approach. That's the presumed logic, though Aidan O'Brien has sometimes bowled a googly when least expected, and it's least expected in this year's Derby. Either way, the Ballydoyle challenge won't be what it might have been, remembering how Kingsbarns blew away his teammates - Battle of Marengo included - in the private trial ahead of the Racing Post Trophy, then blew away the field in the race itself. 

It wasn't in the conventional way, but Telescope inadvertently had his Derby claims advertised on Dante day, firstly by the Dante, conspicuous by his absence, aspiring to be substandard in the event, and secondly by Elkaayed, whom he beat in a maiden last year, looking a potential Group horse with an impressive win at Newmarket a few hours later. However, Telescope has lost his only race this year, his race against time, now ruled out of Epsom, calling for a stiff upper lip to hide the embarrassment that Britain can't win its own Derby

The shortcomings of the British defence, coupled with what looks a Ballydoyle B-Team, sheds some light on the gathering weight of support and momentum behind the overseas pair, Ocovango and Chopin, though neither should be so short as they are in the market. 

If Ocovango's recent scrambling win had been a listed race - which is about all the form amounts to - rather than the Prix Pour Moi, then two plus two wouldn't equal five, while Chopin, or Anbrechen Ansatz - Dawn Approach in German - as the volks back home evidently regard him, is indeed comparable to Dawn Approach in that he's head and shoulders above his direct contemporaries and unproven beyond a mile, but the pair are chalk and cheese, or colcannon and sauerkraut, in terms of substance and pedigree.

There are holes to be picked in all of the opposition, just as there's a Danticat-shaped hole in the argument that Dawn Approach has no supportive stamina on his dam's side, and the deeper you get the more it looks a simple case of his winning depending on whether or not he'll stay, which, for me, is 80/20 in his favour rather than the 50/50 coin toss the market says it is.

Conjecture rules in racing, but the facts are these: Dawn Approach is from a stallion line of Derby winners, he's out of a half-sister to a winning hurdler, he's unbeaten all along, he has got better with each step up in trip, his style and temperament is conducive to a mile and a half, and, most crucial of all, he's the best horse in the race, by far. Put it like that and it's not a hard riddle, and he's no even-money shot.

Hey diddle diddle, Danticat solved a riddle, and Dawn won the Derby in June.   

Recommendation:

Back Dawn Approach to win the Derby

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