In-Running Week: Noble on a trading Mission

Noble Mission has been added to Neil's list.

Neil Munro returns with the latest update to his in-running feature...

It must be difficult to live with a very successful brother, but of course the person to ask about that is my sister! 

But in all seriousness, Noble Mission has had to live with many a written article starting with the phrase 'full brother to Frankel'. I am not sure how good his reading skills are but he definitely has his own thoughts about the racing game and is an interesting character to attempt to trade on.

Horses on the database:
Noble Mission - The talk on Racing UK before Noble Mission's most recent appearance at Goodwood centred around whether 8/13 was a good price to take about a horse that had shown that he was quirky. The conversation seemed to lead to the fact that the stated price had that factored in and if he was more straightforward he would have been trading at 1/3.

My thinking was more about the in-running trading possibilities and I knew that on Noble Mission's in-running CV he had traded twice his BSP in the run and gone onto win for three of his four career victories. Indeed he had gone on to trade four times his BSP twice as well. Thus I was more interested in backing him in the run. He went off a BSP of 1.664/6 so I put in offers at 2.3211/8 and 3.64n/a and both of those got matched up as he hit one of his flat spots. He ended up trading at 5.409/2 as a high. Because he had done this before, I was fairly confident that he would then deliver late on, which he then did, and in fact went away from the field at the finish. In reality this was all that should have been expected as this was a fairly easy Listed contest to pick up. It will be interesting now that connections will have to step him back up into Group company.

Back Noble Mission at 2x and 4x BSP in the run, with some in-running lays dependent on the quality of the contest that he is entered in.

Breton Rock - David Simcock's three year old is undoubtedly talented, having proved that with two wins in two runs as a two year old. His seasonal reappearance at Chester was full of potential, despite suffering defeat, as he finished a close second despite being out of the handicap and slightly rearing at the start. So expectation was high for his next run in the 7f handicap on the same card as Noble Mission ran on at Goodwood. But let me just take you back to that last comment that I made. Breton Rock slightly reared at the start. This had made me look into the colts in-running style so far and it was noticeable that he had been slowly away (not majorly but enough) on his first two runs and it was his class and the fact that he keeps finding which allowed him to taste victory.

These qualities also came through at Chester. So I was intrigued to watch his run at Goodwood and decided to just try and back him at 4xBSP in the run in case he slightly blew the start again. Well he completely blew it, rearing up and giving six to seven lengths immediately to the field, so to finish six lengths down to the eventual winner showed again that he ran a decent race. He traded back around his starting price in the run despite having gone to around 20.019/1 at the start so he does have huge trading possibilities or if you are a pure punter you should wait until the race has gone in running and you have seen how he has got away before placing a bet.  

Back Breton Rock at 2x and 4x BSP in the run and then lay out your combined stake at the matched price.

Arch Villain - Let us complete the trio of horses that I am adding to the in-running database by staying at Goodwood and looking at the four year old gelding who formed part of a double for the in-form Amanda Perrett. Arch Villain completed a hat-trick of wins made up of a win at the back end of the flat season last year with two wins this season. This was by far his best performance, stepping up in to Class 2 handicap company, and proving he can cope. The handicapper will definitely have his say now but Arch Villain's sustained galloping style could still make him competitive off a mark in the early 90's. He keeps finding and because of this has traded at double his BSP for four of his five victories, as well as regularly trading shorter as he gets involved in the business end of a race. 

Back Arch Villain at 2x BSP in the run and then put up an offer to lay out your stake at the BSP with further low offers to create a green book.

Something for the weekend

Oaks
Pace is always an interesting angle in the major races and I have a feeling that connections of Gertrude Versed could consider a prominent position as she won at Kempton by dictating from the front. Another angle could be Miss You Too who has been keen in races when held up and connections might think they have nothing to lose by letting her have her head. They are both big prices and could have the possibility of trading shorter in the run.

Madame Defarge has been put up as a big price option by a couple of tipsters and Michael Bell's filly certainly has improvement in her after only two career starts. But my worry has been her slightly high head carriage and the fact that she has treated very kindly by both jockeys in the run, as though they think she won't react well to the whip. I may be wrong on this but something to keep in mind.

At the top of the market Secret Gesture has travelled supremely well in her races and should give you a chance of getting out at low odds in the run if you feel the need. Moth on the other hand became slightly unbalanced in the dip at Newmarket during the Guineas and could be found out at Epsom. I can easily see Moth trading bigger in the run, whether she goes onto success or not.

Derby
The Derby I am struggling with. If I look at the likely pace in the race, the obvious angle is Ocovango, but we do not know what Aiden is going to do to challenge him with a number of entered milers in the field on his behalf? Does he want a fast even pace for the stayers or a slow muddling pace for Magician? I guess I do come back to Ocovango as he is the most likely to be up on or around the pace so he could still be worth a small play as a back to lay trade.

With concern to other plays the only one in mind at the moment is to put up a very low offer on Dawn Approach in case his stamina does not see him though. We know he will travel well and it is likely his class will get him through to success but it might be worth trying to lay at around 1.111/9 to try and make a cheap winning position.

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!