Channel 4 Racing: Liber Nauticus the horse to back in the Oaks at Epsom

Tony Calvin's tips today come from Epsom

Tipster Tony Calvin had picked five horses for Friday's Epsom races, including Liber Nauticus in the Oaks...

If I hear anyone else trot out Vincent O'Brien's "if you think you have more than one Derby winner, you probably have none," line this week - or whatever the exact quote was, as I am sure it has been bastardised down the years - I won't be responsible for my actions.
 
Everyone is well aware that Aidan O'Brien has to throw a lot of darts at the Derby board when he is up against a superstar from another yard. And so it is with Dawn Approach in the field this season, when he puts five in the firing line.
 
Not rocket science is it? So if you are going to comment on the bleedin' obvious, at least be original, shall we ladies and gentlemen?
 
However, if we keep to that "mediocrity in numbers" logic, should the warning signs start flashing wildly when you look at a five-race card on Channel 4, and you think there is a bet in each one?
 
Probably...but, just as this column advises caution when the Channel 4 races dictate, so we have to back our judgement when punting opportunities present themselves. So brace yourself.
 
The highlight of Friday's Channel 4 card is obviously the Oaks at 16:00, and I get the distinct impression that a very big run is expected from Liber Nauticus.
 
And at around the 5 mark, I think she rates the bet in the race.
 
She certainly wasn't as impressive as Secret Gesture was in winning her trial, but she got the job done professionally in the Musidora at York and everything about the filly suggests that 1m4f, and perhaps even further in time, will see her improve a good deal and she looks the sort to progress with experience, too. Grinders usually do.
 
She only has 3lb and 2lb to find with the market leaders Secret Gesture and Moth respectively on Timeform figures, and is confidently expected to bridge that gap, and more.
 
We will go through the other four fancies on the card in chronological order. First up is Waterway Run in the 13:35. 
 
She has arguably failed to build upon her Group 3 win in the 7f Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket last September in three subsequent starts, but this represents an easier assignment than Group 1 starts in the Breeders Cup and a creditable 6th of 20 in the French 1,000 Guineas last time.
 
She is worth chancing at odds of around 11+ in a very winnable Group 3 contest. Maybe the ease in the ground will bring about some improvement in her, too.
 
Resurge's form figures at Epsom read 121215772, and it is easy to make a convincing case for him return to winning form on the course today in the 14:10.
 
He won this race off a 3lb higher mark two seasons ago, and I think we can assume that trainer Stuart Kittow, who saddled a 20-1 winner at Salisbury last week, will have him cherry ripe for this. Looks for odds of 8 upwards for him.
 
He did run below par on his reappearance last season on this course, but that came on unfavourably heavy ground, and the season before he ran a cracker to finish second over track and trip on his first start of the campaign. The story around him in simple then; he is a well-handicapped horse who loves the track and he is likely to be primed for his return. He probably wouldnt want much more rain, though.
 
Sri Putra doesn't get the credit he deserves, and it could be that the market has underestimated him yet again in the Diomed Stakes a 14:45. He rates a bet at around the 6 mark.
 
He is certainly better than a Group 3 horse at his best - witness his York win last season and an excellent fifth in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes - is officially the best horse in the race, and won first time out last season. That'll do for me at the price.
 
The rain throughout the week is good news for Benzanno's chance in the 15:20.
 
He goes best with cut in the ground, and luckily the handicapper has dropped him 3lb for a couple of below efforts recently on faster ground. Throw in course forum figures of 4212, and we have a tempting betting proposition at around 12 or bigger.

Recommended Bets

Back Waterway Run at 9.417/2 in the 13:35 at Epsom
Back Resurge at 7.87/1 in the 14:10 at Epsom
Back Sri Putra at 5.85/1 in the 14:45 at Epsom
Back Benzanno at 9.89/1 in the 15:20 at Epsom
Back Liber Nauticus at 5.24/1 in the 16:00 at Epsom