US Presidential Election Betting: Did Clint Eastwood make Obama's day?

Clint's quite bizarre speech has been seized on by the satirists

Clint Eastwood's strange, rambling speech has gobbled up the headlines following the Republican National Convention and the Betfair markets have reacted by shortening Obama's odds to be next President. Paul Krishnamurty explains all

It is too early to tell if Mitt Romney received a poll bounce following the Republican National Convention but punters have not been slow to express an opinion. Money has poured in for Obama over the past few days, with the President now just 1.538/15 to win a second term as he heads to Charlotte, North Carolina, for his own party's convention.

Given the lack of new polling evidence, the response is a little surprising. Recent nationwide surveys all point towards a dead-heat and, even if Obama is faring better in the key swing states, his advantages are generally small. Presidential challengers tend to receive a boost once they've introduced themselves to the nation, so Romney backers were probably expecting momentum to shift their way this week. If it doesn't, many will blame Clint Eastwood's bizarre, rambling conversation with an empty chair.

Let's be clear. Celebrity supporters do not decide elections - especially one as divisive and close as this. They do, however, have the potential to dominate media coverage and in this case, the effect has been to ruin Romney's unique opportunity to define himself before his opponents do so. While very few outside the Republican Party are talking about Romney's address, the Democrat machine is busy defining the challenger on their terms.

Obama's response yesterday in Iowa offered a clue of the attack lines to come. The President dismissed the RNC as belonging in the age of black and white TV, failing to offer "a single new idea, just the same old policies that have been sticking it to the middle class for years."

In an election that both sides are adamant represents a battle for 'America's future', nobody wants to be portrayed as the past. Having your candidate upstaged by an embarrassing performance by an 82-year-old actor can hardly help in that respect. Time will tell whether this episode has caused any damage, but satirists loved it and as the McCain/Palin ticket found four years ago, programmes like The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live can be lethal for political reputations.

Attention now shifts to Charlotte and a potentially decisive week at the Democratic Convention. Even Obama's staunchest critics acknowledge his rhetorical qualities and the President's keynote address will make uncomfortable viewing for Republicans. Expect him to associate Romney with running mate Paul Ryan's radical budget, savaging the plans as heartless social darwinism. Ryan's RNC speech was taken apart by fact-checkers, giving the Democrats further ammunition to negatively brand their opponents before average voters get to know them. Democrat party managers are notoriously risk-averse so don't expect an Eastwood-style disaster to steal Obama's thunder.

A further angle of particular interest to punters is the venue for this week's convention. Obama won North Carolina in 2008 but the state has been widely tipped to return to the Republicans this year. Even the electoral map projections that strongly favour Obama lean towards Romney here, who remains a 1.51/2 chance to win the state.

The two most recent polls, however, show Obama closing the gap to no more than one point. As thousands of Democrats gather in Charlotte, they will be looking to expand an impressive organisation in the state further and build on that polling momentum. Given that Obama is currently ahead in every swing state, if he does manage to turn North Carolina around, we are looking at a landslide.