среда, 5 сентября 2012 г.

US Handicappers Corner: Emcee hammers rivals

Timeform's Simon Rowlands looks back at the latest action in the US...
Saratoga in late-summer provides some of the best racing in the world, the six-week meeting ending recently with a bang of Graded races and nothing like a whimper.
The prize for Performance of The Final Week goes to Godolphin's Emcee, who took the G1 Forego Stakes by four and a half lengths from Hamazing Destiny and posted a clear personal best of 125 on Timeform ratings.
Connections now have a decision to make about whether Emcee drops from this seven furlongs to the six of the Breeders' Cup Sprint or goes into unknown stamina territory for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
It has to be said that Emcee was never better than at the line here, and the 5-year winners' averages show that the longer race has been easier to win than the shorter (122, compared to 126). In addition, last year's Sprint winner, 128-rated Amazombie, is still around and means business.
The other G1 at Saratoga for older horses was the nine-furlong Woodward Stakes, which went to To Honor And Serve by a neck from Mucho Macho Man.
This is the kind of contest in which race standards - the form of handicapping which relies on data associated with the race previously - come into their own, as they suggest it is a good deal more likely that the first two did not perform to their very best than that the close third Cease improved by a large amount.
Both To Honor And Serve and Mucho Macho Man are considered to have run to 118, but their master ratings are 123 and 125 respectively, with the latter possibly unlucky in getting boxed in turning in.
Another who was possibly unlucky was Data Link in the G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap over an extended mile on turf. He could not quite reel in enterprisingly-ridden Dominus but was by no means discredited (ran to 118, compared to best of 120) against a smart rival who was receiving plenty of weight.
The end of the Saratoga season also indicates the start of the serious exchanges between the leading two-year-olds, and two above all others very much impressed in the last week.
Unbeaten Shanghai Bobby goes to the top of the juvenile pecking order with his authoritative win in the G2 Hopeful Stakes, his 120 rating only slightly below what is likely to be required to win at the Breeders' Cup itself. Second and third Fortify and Bern Identity give the form a solid look.
Weekend Hideaway has yet to contest a Graded race but won useful events at the Spa by a combined margin of 13 lengths on his last two starts, including the David Stakes in the last week. The son of Speightstown could be one for the recently inaugurated Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, his 115 rating equal to that of last year's winner Secret Circle.
At a slightly lower level, Balance The Books (rated 108p) got up on the line to deny Joha (rated 112, having conceded 4 lb) in the G2 With Anticipation Stakes, and both youngsters look to have futures.
The top juvenile race for fillies at Saratoga was the G1 Spinaway Stakes, in which the "form horse" So Many Ways emerged victorious with an improved rating of 113p. The "talking horse" Teen Pauline was only third but is not one to give up on.
All the runners finished tired, but Teen Pauline especially so after blasting through the first quarter in 22.29 sec and the first half mile in 45.13 sec. Her closing speed, expressed as a % of her average race speed, was a pedestrian 85.4% when around 92% would be customary.
Their swords may be crossed in the coming weeks with the best juvenile filly out West, Executiveprivilege, who made it four wins out of four in the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes.
This was just about the Bob Baffert-trained's best performance yet on Timeform ratings (ran to 114), but it came by just a nose from Beholder (ran to 110, receiving 4 lb) and it is debatable how much more improvement is to come from the winner, for all that she raced wide throughout.

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