These horses may be mediocre but clever trading on them and you could be quids in
Building on last week's theme - in praise of mediocrity - Neil Munro looks at a few horses whose less than stellar performance on occasion may have masked some in-running trading value
The more attentive among you will remember me writing about Martha Graham last week, she who once said 'the only sin is mediocrity'. Well, sorry Martha, but I say bring on mediocrity and, without being unkind to the following horses, they have often fallen under that category
Half A Billion
Let us get this straight, you are not going to make half a billion quid trading on the Michael Dods three-year old but you might be able to make half a ton. His win ratio is 12%, which I guess is slightly above mediocrity, but he probably should have won more and has more placed efforts than I have had hot dinners. Alright, that is not strictly true but Half A Billion does find less than expected and when you put this with his prominent running tactics you have a decent back to lay horse to trade on. Both his wins have come in Class 5 and 6 company so look out for him when dropped into that level.
How to trade: Back Half A Billion pre-race and then lay out your stake only at half the BSP if dropped into Class 5 or 6. If he is running in a higher class then lay out double your stake at half the matched price.
Simarian
I am being really harsh in describing Simarian as mediocre but my point is more about class again. Whenever the seven-year old gelding has been tried in anything above Class 3 races he has struggled but his record below that is six wins and three placed efforts in 13 runs and he proved this again with his win at Worcester. His last three wins (two over hurdles and one over fences) have been over further than you would have expected him to stay and this catches the layers out. Simarian has traded more than double his BSP on six of his seven wins including trading 44.043/1 (having gone off a BSP of 4.51n/a) last time out.
How to trade: When Simarian is next seen in Class 3 or 4 company, or you fancy him to win, split your stakes and a third of your stake at BSP, a third at double the BSP in the run, and then a final offer at a big price, maybe around 100.099/1.
Joshua The First
Now this is more like it, Joshua The First should really have been called Joshua The Second, and with a win ratio of 5% he can be classed as mediocre. But Keith Dalgleish has proved what a good trainer he is so I am not beyond believing that this three-year old could show improvement in time. Joshua The First has had more seconds than myself in a Vegas buffet and that is saying something. He was a little quirky early doors and still fails to find at the business end despite more times than not being ridden in a prominent fashion. If you are to trade on him make sure you have the field winning for you - until Dalgleish starts to work his magic!
How to trade: Back Joshua The First for small stakes at BSP pre-race and then lay out your 150% of your stake at half the matched price. Then put up a further lay offer at odds-on to create more winnings on the field.
Building on last week's theme - in praise of mediocrity - Neil Munro looks at a few horses whose less than stellar performance on occasion may have masked some in-running trading value
The more attentive among you will remember me writing about Martha Graham last week, she who once said 'the only sin is mediocrity'. Well, sorry Martha, but I say bring on mediocrity and, without being unkind to the following horses, they have often fallen under that category
Half A Billion
Let us get this straight, you are not going to make half a billion quid trading on the Michael Dods three-year old but you might be able to make half a ton. His win ratio is 12%, which I guess is slightly above mediocrity, but he probably should have won more and has more placed efforts than I have had hot dinners. Alright, that is not strictly true but Half A Billion does find less than expected and when you put this with his prominent running tactics you have a decent back to lay horse to trade on. Both his wins have come in Class 5 and 6 company so look out for him when dropped into that level.
How to trade: Back Half A Billion pre-race and then lay out your stake only at half the BSP if dropped into Class 5 or 6. If he is running in a higher class then lay out double your stake at half the matched price.
Simarian
I am being really harsh in describing Simarian as mediocre but my point is more about class again. Whenever the seven-year old gelding has been tried in anything above Class 3 races he has struggled but his record below that is six wins and three placed efforts in 13 runs and he proved this again with his win at Worcester. His last three wins (two over hurdles and one over fences) have been over further than you would have expected him to stay and this catches the layers out. Simarian has traded more than double his BSP on six of his seven wins including trading 44.043/1 (having gone off a BSP of 4.51n/a) last time out.
How to trade: When Simarian is next seen in Class 3 or 4 company, or you fancy him to win, split your stakes and a third of your stake at BSP, a third at double the BSP in the run, and then a final offer at a big price, maybe around 100.099/1.
Joshua The First
Now this is more like it, Joshua The First should really have been called Joshua The Second, and with a win ratio of 5% he can be classed as mediocre. But Keith Dalgleish has proved what a good trainer he is so I am not beyond believing that this three-year old could show improvement in time. Joshua The First has had more seconds than myself in a Vegas buffet and that is saying something. He was a little quirky early doors and still fails to find at the business end despite more times than not being ridden in a prominent fashion. If you are to trade on him make sure you have the field winning for you - until Dalgleish starts to work his magic!
How to trade: Back Joshua The First for small stakes at BSP pre-race and then lay out your 150% of your stake at half the matched price. Then put up a further lay offer at odds-on to create more winnings on the field.
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