Golf Betting: Tiger is cracking value to win a third FedEx Cup

Tiger won't take his eye off the ball at East Lake
Tiger is right in the FedEx mix and boasts stunning course form at East Lake - expect a strong showing, says Paul Krishnamurty
While the jury remains out concerning the post-scandal, post-injury version of Tiger Woods, the greatest player ever to pick up a golf club should look back on his season's work with pride. Following two miserable, winless years, he's landed three titles and fought his way back to second place on the world rankings. Whether this perfectionist will be satisfied, however, is another matter.
Failure to win a 15th major title will represent failure on the most important level to Woods and he will also be acutely aware that for the first time since turning pro, he's been comprehensively overtaken as the game's top dog. The fact nobody else was able to dominate during his troubled period meant that, whatever his rankings, Tiger always started as the man to beat, star attraction and market leader. After Rory McIlroy's magnificent month that is clearly not the case.
It is hard to see that pecking order being reversed any time soon. Rory now holds a bigger lead than anyone since Tiger's peak and is apparently improving on a weekly basis. Moreover, while Tiger's figures are impressively consistent, he is nothing like the putter or force in contention as the old days. Nevertheless a third FedEx Cup title, not to mention the $10M bonus, would offer significant compensation and at 5.24/1 he represents cracking value to earn just that.
Just to clarify, this is not a recommendation for this week's Tour Championship market, in which Woods starts at 6.86/1, just behind McIlroy at 5.95/1. That specific tournament is wide-open but because the big-two start this decisive week in the leading positions, either can still very plausibly win the FedEx prize despite losing at East Lake.
The FedEx Cup motto is that, thanks to the complicated points system, anyone can win and in fairness, recent evidence supports the theory. Last year's race boiled down to a play-off between Bill Haas and Hunter Mahan, who started the final week in 25th and 21st place. In 2010, Jim Furyk won from 11th position going into East Lake, while runner-up Luke Donald rose from seventh. The crucial distinction with those two years, however, is that the front-runners massively underperformed, which the likes of Rory and Tiger are much less likely to do.
There are countless potential scenarios, summarised well here, but these are the basic calculations. If McIlroy finishes clear sixth or Woods clear fourth at East Lake, nobody currently lower than tenth place on the points list can win. If either finishes clear second, nobody currently below sixth can win.
Such high finishes are hardly straightforward of course, but Tiger's long-term record at East Lake suggests he'll be very hard to keep out of the frame. In six visits this century, he's only finished below second once.
That compares much favourably to the rest of the top-eight, amongst whom Phil Mickelson is the only one able to boast East Lake pedigree. Rory, Louis Oosthuizen and Lee Westwood are making their course debuts - no mean feat on a narrow layout with lightning-fast Bermuda greens. Nick Watney, Brandt Snedeker and Dustin Johnson lack convincing course form. Given that Tiger has consistently featured on recent leaderboards, finishing top-four on his last two starts, it seems almost unimaginable that he won't be right in the thick of it when the FedEx race reaches what is usually a dramatic conclusion.
Most significantly, the fact he doesn't necessarily have to win represents useful insurance for punters who worry about Tiger's recent inability to convert strong positions. Considering he's only 6.86/1 to win this title, a marginally smaller quote to win the FedEx Cup must represent superior value.
Recommended Bet
10u Tiger Woods to win the FedEx Cup @ 5.24/1