England v South Africa 5th ODI: Visitors out to avoid unlikely hat-trick

Smith's side need to produce under pressure
There is a danger South Africa will be thinking about the plane home, but they will want to avoid a third defeat in a row, so Ed Hawkins is expecting a tight contest for the decider at Trent Bridge, where the toss could be key
England
Good old Ian Bell came good for England at HQ. With an assured 88 he guided England to victory and an unlikely 2-1 lead. It was also good for England fans to see Craig Kieswetter crash quick runs from the No 6 slot, a position he is unfamiliar with and has struggled to get to know.
There is a selection dilemma for the hosts. Jonathan Trott is a doubt for the decider, after being struck on the hand by a Dale Steyn ball. Jonny Bairstow is his most likely replacement but Jos Buttler is in contention, too.
Ravi Bopara has had his problems with the bat where his series scores are 16, 0 and 6. Were it not for his useful bowling, his place would be under threat.
South Africa
Morne Morkel lost his place to Ryan McLaren, the all-rounder, and although it was a move which gave South Africa a better balance for Lord's, it did not pay off. They should hold their nerve with this XI but they are likely to be tempted by the potential firepower that Morkel could bring.
Dean Elgar has been shunted down the order to No 6 and that would seem a fair move considering JP Duminy is vastly more experienced.
Venue and conditions
Who knows what to expect at Trent Bridge? Bat or ball could dominate. How can one pitch be so varied? An example. In 2008 South Africa were blown away for 83 against England. A year later England posted 299 against Australia.
Another? OK, a strong Sri Lanka batting line-up could muster only 174 after a spate of scores in the high 270s and beyond. The average first-innings score in the last 11 is 230 but one would suggest the innings runs market is best left alone this time.
There is a big toss bias, however. From those 11, eight have been won by the side fielding first. Seven of those have been day-night affairs and, again, five have been won by the chasers. No rain is forecast and we should expect a high of 21c.
Match odds
The two sides have come right back at each other in terms of odds following England's successive victories. But Alastair Cook's team are still not favourites.
South Africa marginally have the edge at 2.0811/10 with Graeme Smith's team 1.9010/11. Are the Proteas really bad enough to lose three-in-a-row to an odburate, professional, but hardly brilliant, England team? They have not lost three ODIs in a row since 2008. The opposition? England.
It is possible that South Africa are now thinking of the plane home and if we want to get with them the best way could be a back-to-lay, assuming that they at least have enough in the tank to make it a close call.
Top England runscorer
For the third venue in a row, Ian Bell is England's historic top run-getter in the last five years. He has 112 runs from just the two innings and he is yet to be dismissed. Kieswetter has credentials if you don't think Bell can repeat. He has 104 runs in two innings and it might make sense to side with him under Any Other at 5.309/2. You also get Bairstow batting for you.
Top South Africa batsman
Duminy's promotion to No 3 has to to make him a value call at 6.205/1 while AB De Villiers keeps promising a big score yet fails to deliver. Last time it was 39 from 46 balls and he lost his wicket just as he looked likely to turn the screw. He is poor value, though, at 4.804/1.
Recommended bet
Back-to-lay South Africa at 1.9010/11