Boxing Betting: Mitchell to upset the odds in close bout

Comeback king Kevin Mithcell can land us a winner at odds-against
Scottish fight fans are in for a treat at Glasgow's SEEC when talented duo Ricky Burns and Kevin Mitchell get down to business on Saturday night, says Alex Steedman
The last time I was inside Glasgow's SEEC it was as a ruddy-faced teenager, pumped up on cheap vodka-orange and bouncing around to Deacon Blue. Returning this weekend the atmosphere will be a little different though I expect to be charged, full of edge and energy as Scotland's Ricky Burns defends his WBO Lightweight belt against Eastender Kevin Mitchell.
This match has been a while in the wings, it was touted when both were mixing with the domestic best at super-featherweight four years ago and though Burns' wedding last year pushed the impending duel temporarily down the line, that mark in the sand is finally upon them both. It is a fight both men have craved, one they both think will be won and for the first time in some time, punters can chew on a genuine 50-50 scrap.
There is little doubt that Burns (1.674/6) has improved significantly during that intervening period; that he has developed as a fighter and grown as a champion of the world.
It is five years and 19 fights since Burns last tasted defeat when he lost twice in a year to British title holders Alex Arthur and Carl Johanneson. That he got up of from a first round knock-down to dethrone Puerto Rican banger Roman Martinez to win the WBO Super-featherweight on a crazy Kelvin Hall night in 2010 says much about the road Burns has travelled as it does about his character. The Scot has moved up in weight, won another World Title and hasn't come close to losing since. It goes without saying that Ricky Burns is a more complete, formidable boxer than the one Mitchell might have faced a few years back.
Mitchell, the 2.6413/8 outsider, is simply a menace. He has the eyes of a shark outside the ring and the instinct of one inside. Quite simply, this guy was born to fight.
The West Ham man is an excellent boxer and a ferocious fighter, particularly when it comes to domestic dust-ups. Mitchell excelled when stopping Johanneson (who'd beaten Burns previously) and John Murray in headline, fight-of-the-year contenders in '08 and 2011.
But in between Mitchell was hammered in three rounds by Aussie warrior Michael Katsidis (subsequently beaten by Burns) when his home life was falling apart at the seams. You can call it 1-1 on related form lines if you like but none of that will matter come Saturday night. When Mitchell is on-song and focused, he is a very difficult cat to cool.
I spent some time with both fighters during the initial promotion of the fight at Hendon RAF base where we recorded some supposedly spicy exchanges for Boxnation. That wasn't easy to do; there is obvious and willing respect between Mitchell & Burns and they have become relatively close through mutual friends as well as a shared enthusiasm for 'Call of Duty' on X-Box.
But it was clear to me they are both, equally certain of victory. I gave Mitchell a lift to his next press call and he mentioned, almost casually, that he'd noticed the way Burns was breathing during our staged head-to-head.
"He's nervous" Mitchell observed, "he's scared; he knows I'm going to knock him out."
Mitchell wasn't acting up for me, here was a fighter looking for signs, picking up on perceived weaknesses and perhaps, as fighters do, convincing himself.
Both men believe this is a fight they will win and they're right to feel that. But which boxer can impose his particular skills upon it for that man is you're winner. Burns will do what he has become energetically good at; sticking relentlessly to the jab, working the body, matching fire-with-fire when called for and always, working at a ferocious pace. It's an orthodox strategy but one which Burns excels at. Everything revolves around that jab and with his two-inch height and reach advantage, Burns is in pole position again.
On form, with his athletic consistency and physical advantages, Burns deserves to be a slight favourite.
Punters are probably a little wary of Mitchell given his shambolic preparation for the Katsidis fight two years ago and subsequent humiliation in front of his own people at Upton Park.
But it is fair to say Mitchell the fighter wasn't in town that night; judge him on what he's done previously where he's often looked one of the most talented British fighters of the past decade. That Katsidis defeat is the only blemish on Mitchell's record, remember this is the guy who out-boxed the lanky Breidis Prescott the year after he'd sparked out Amir Khan. Burns may be a few levels above Prescott but Mitchell can box and he can also slip a taller man's jab which is the key to his success in this fight. We know that he has the firepower to hurt Burns if he lands (4.2 KO/TKO/DQ).
I think Mitchell will hit and hurt Burns at some stage and that will be a turning point in the fight. Mitchell is clever enough to negate the reach disadvantage and has the speed and skills to make it count. Burns hasn't fought anyone like Mitchell in some time, if ever and though he will be very difficult to beat, I fancy Burns may have to lose with dignity in the city they call Raintown.
Recommended Bet
2pt back Mitchell to win @ 2.6413/8