BMW Italian Open: Wiesberger to make it third time lucky for The Punter

Bernd Wiesberger, a pick again for The Punter

Our man takes a detailed look at this week's European Tour action from Italy, where a fast start and a hot putter are needed to take the title...

Tournament History
The BMW Italian Open dates back to 1925. It has been a regular on the European Tour since the tours inception in 1972.

Venue
Royal Park I Roveri Golf and Country Club, Turin

Course Details
Par 72, 7,282 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.44

Designed by Robert Trent Jones Senior and opened in 1971, Royal Park has wide, tree-lined fairways and average sized, undulating greens. It has hosted the event for the last three years.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Tour
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all three days, 10.30am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday, 12.00pm on Saturday, and 12.30pm on Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Robert Rock -21
2010 - Fredrik Andersson-Hed -16
2009 - Daniel Vancsik -21
2008 - Hennie Otto -25
2007 - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -16 (playoff)

What will it take to win the BMW Italian Open?
At first glance, with three outsiders winning the last three renewals, I thought this could be a really tricky puzzle to unravel but there are actually some very clear trends.

Robert Rock and Freddie Andersson-Hed both topped the putting average stats and Daniel Vancsik ranked 2nd the week he won. You have to putt very well to win here it seems. And you have to play the par fours well too, all three winners bettered everyone else on the par fours the week they won.

Good scrambling has been important and driving distance has so far been more important than driving accuracy. It's not absolutely essential to bomb it off the tee but it's definitely an advantage.

Is there an identikit winner?
All three Park Royal winners were surprise winners in one way or another. Daniel Vancsik had previously won on tour but he was an unexpected, big-priced winner. And Rock and Andersson-Hed were both winning their first titles.

With putting being the key stat to date, the run of shock winners could continue. It's bound to be a bit of a birdie-fest again and just about anyone in the field could get hot with the flatstick for four days.

In-Play Tactics
Halfway leaders are three from three around Park Royal, so don't going scanning too far down the leaderboard when trying to unearth the winner in-running.

The plan will be to look at the stats after day one to see who's putting well, but I won't be looking too far down the leaderboard, Vancsik was four back, Andersson-Hed three, and Rock was already in front. Royal Park does not appear to be a catch-up course.

For in-running trading purposes... after a gentle opening hole, the players face three tricky ones but after that they're into the scoring section of the course. Holes 5-11 all offer up good chances with the par 5 8th and 11th ranking the easiest in each of the last three years.

After that, the 13th is a gettable birdie hole and the 18th is another reachable par 5 but those two holes apart, it's a tough finish. Look to players to make their scores early before hanging on until the last hole.

Market Leaders
Turin-born, Francesco Molinari, knows the course like the back of his hand but the pressure of repeating his 2006 success (his first European Tour win) has so far held him back at Park Royal. He's gone on scoring runs here and put himself into the argument, only to fall short and whilst I can certainly see him trading shorter and again competing, as always with molly, the best way to play him is from off the pace but will that style suit here? History says no.

Paul Krishnamurty makes a good case for second favourite Nicolas Colsaerts and I can see where he's coming from. I can certainly see him contending but given his conversion rate, he's no great price and I also have reservations about his putting which hasn't been brilliant of late.

Selections
The two players that most neatly ticked the right boxes are Alexander Noren and Bernd Wiesberger but I've left out the Swede.

Noren has lost his way a bit since being blown away in round two at the USPGA Championship and although his stats suggest he's a good fit, he's not been back here since missing the cut in 2009, so he hasn't any course form either. Had he been 40.039/1 I'd have taken a chance on him but not at 32.031/1.

Whether I'd view Wiesberger's current price of 28.027/1 as value is slightly debatable. Fortunately, I managed to get a small amount matched at 44.043/1 yesterday and I was more than happy to get onboard at an average of just over 32.031/1. I've backed the Austrian at bigger prices over the last two weeks and he's not performed badly at all, finishing tied 12th at last week's KLM Open and tied 6th at Crans the week before, where he topped the putting stats.

He's in cracking form, has already won twice this year, shot a pair of weekend 67's here last year on his way to a top-15 finish, after a slow start, and he'll be far better suited to this track than those encountered over the last fortnight, where he still fared well. Hopes are high.

For small stakes at a sporting price, I've taken a flyer on promising Swede, Kristoffer Broberg, who I featured as a player to follow a couple of weeks ago. He went off at a laughably short price in Switzerland in his first outing as a European Tour member, where he missed the cut, but he'll have learnt from that and by all accounts, he's a phenomenal putter.

I've also taken a chance on Scotland's Marc Warren, who's bound to inspired (if a little tired, I know I am!) by fellow countryman Andy Murray's historic and heroic win in the early hours at the US Open. Warren is brilliant putter on his day and he looked to be coming back into form again last week after an understandable slump following his near miss in his national open in July.

Last but not least is Garth Mulroy. I liked him because he putts well, drives it a fair way off the tee, has hinted at a return to form and was a huge price but Ian at Sportsbettingindex.com pointed out to me this morning another reason for backing him. He won the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek in November, a venue last year's winner here, Robert Rock, also plays well at.

Selections:
Bernd Wiesberger @ 32.031/1
Kristoffer Broberg @ 140.0139/1
Marc Warren @ and average of 140.0139/1
Garth Mulroy @ an average of 240.0239/1

With players resting up ahead of the Tour Championship and Ryder Cup, there's no event in the States this week but I'll be back on Thursday evening or Friday morning with the In-Play Blog.

*Follow me on twitter @SteveThePunter