Bayern Munichs flying start creates Dortmund value

Mario Mandzukic has made an encouraging start at Bayern
Ben Lyttleton suggests that - with Bayern setting the early pace - it could be a shrewd time to back Borussia Dortmund...
It was strange to hear Bayern president Uli Hoeness admit that the club had spent too much on their new signing Javi Martinez, who completed his €40m move from Athletic Bilbao last week. "Of course he's not worth that, but that's what we had to pay because of his buy-out clause. He is normally worth €20m or €25m, but we decided that for once we will take part in the transfern/a madness," he said.
It's hardly a ringing endorsement for a new arrival, but then again Bayern did end last season without a trophy, finishing behind Borussia Dortmund for the second year running and only missing out on the Champions League on penalties. Their response so far this season has been emphatic, and on Sunday, they put Stuttgart to the sword (in what is traditionally a high-scoring fixture), coming from behind to win 6-1.
This is the first time in five seasons that Bayern have won their first two games of the season, and already they have come in from 1.865/6 to 1.51/2 to win the Bundesliga. You can see why: the players who have been criticised most by the fans this year - Thomas Muller and Toni Kroos - scored against Stuttgart while Mario Mandzukic, bought as cover for the currently injured Mario Gomez, has scored five goals in his first four appearances.
So when Martinez made his debut late on in the game, it barely made an impact. Bastian Schweinsteiger had played well, although you can't help but wonder if Martinez is seen as the longer-term replacement for the injury-prone skipper. In the short-term, Gustavo would drop out, with Kroos moving upfield to challenge Muller as the central playmaker. With defender Dante, winger Xherdan Shaqiri and Claudio Pizarro also coming in, only Paris St-Germain and Chelsea have spent more than Bayern this summer.
One thing they do have over rivals Dortmund is a slightly easier Champions League group - Bayern are 1.091/11 to qualify from a group containing Valencia, Lille and BATE Borisov while Dortmund, in with Real Madrid, Manchester City and Ajax, are 2.3411/8 - but Bayern's next two away games in the league won't be easy: at Schalke and Werder Bremen.
That's why I still think there's value in Dortmund for the title, even though after drawing at Nuremberg on Saturday, their title price has moved from 2.8615/8 pre-season to 3.953/1. After the game, coach Jurgen Klopp had a go at the referee but also praised his opponents' tactics, specifically the man-marking jobs they did on Mats Hummels and Marco Reus.
Hummels has become so important to their build-up play, it was a clear tactic for Tomas Pekhart to reduce his impact on the game and it worked; Reus too, the big-money mover from Monchengladbach, played in Shinji Kagawa's playmaker position with Mario Gotze on the bench (in time, Gotze might start there with Reus moving out wide) and his impact was limited. Dortmund, though, remain unbeaten in the league this year, a run of 30 games and now closing in on Hamburg's all-time record of 36.
After the international break, Dortmund play Leverkusen and struggling Hamburg: I would expect two wins from those games and the two-point gap closed on Bayern. The big spenders from Munich may yet end up triumphant this season, but Dortmund are sure to make a decent fight of it, and 3.953/1, at this early stage of the season, seems too big.