пятница, 29 августа 2014 г.

Ajax hold van Gaal to ransom over defender signing and other transfer rumours

Is Xabi Alonso going to Bayern?

Plenty of transfer rumours from around Europe today but once more Manchester United top the charts, Alex Johnson does her best Clarissa impression and explains it all.

The Sun says Manchester United's bid to sign Daley Blind has suffered another setback with Ajax holding out for 20m.

United have been linked with the versatile Dutchman throughout the summer but the Amsterdam club's director of football Marc Overmars has told the Red Devils they will need to pay the "absolute top price" if they're to force through a deal.

Despite Olivier Giroud being out until the New Year, Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger has ruled out signing a new striker before the end of the transfer window, ending the rumours that have seen the club linked with the likes of Danny Welbeck, Radamel Falcao and Edinson Cavani, according to the Metro.

One of Wenger's former protg's Alex Song could be about to return to the Premier League, with the same paper reporting the Cameroon international is set to end his unhappy spell at Barcelona with a move to Liverpool.

Moving away from the top four contenders and the Newcastle Chronicle say their local club are about to launch a bid for QPR forward Loic Remy, who spent last season on loan at the Magpies and is looking to leave Loftus Road.

Another striker who could be on the move is Palermo's Abel Hernandez, with the Daily Express saying he is close to signing for Hull, although boss Steve Bruce has admitted there is still work to be done before the deal is completed.

Crystal Palace are also set for a busy end to the transfer window according to ClubCall, after co-chairman Steve Parish revealed there will be money for new boss Neil Warnock to spend as he looks to add to his squad.

Their possible relegation rivals Sunderland could be about to pull off somewhat of a coup with the signing of Argentine Ricky Alvarez, courtesy of Football Italia, although Monaco are also interested in the midfielder.

Moving abroad and Goal.com say Real Madrid have identified Wolfsburg's Luiz Gustavo as their number one target following Xabi Alonso reported request to leave for Bayern Munich.

Gustavo was one of Brazil's few shining lights at the recent World Cup and would add some much needed steel to Carlo Ancelotti's midfield, especially if Sami Khedira also heads for the Bernabeu exit.

Another man linked with Los Blancos is Radamel Falcao, with Sky Italia reporting a bid could be made to Monaco for the Colombian striker on Thursday.

Finally and Football Italia are reporting that Juventus have turned down the possibility of a swap deal involving Bayern Munich, which would see defender Stephan Lichtsteiner exchanged for winger Xherdan Shaqiri.

Football Bet of the Day: Lyon will not sleep tonight

Did somebody say Lyon aren't really missing Bafetimbi Gomis?

After staring into the jaws of defeat last night, Tobias Gourlay is emboldened. He looks forward to Lyon roaring in Romania this evening

Happy news from South Africa: AmaZulu 0 Bloemfontein Celtic 2 in last night's Premier Soccer League.

Under 2.5 Goals didn't look a great bet when that was also the score after just 27 minutes, but a bit of the old Rorke's Drift spirit saw AmaZulu avoid a thrashing and this column dodge a bullet. Michael Caine would be proud.

All quiet on the domestic front today, so we're daring to dip our toe into a bit of the European stuff.

Romania's Astra Giurgiu are regulars at this stage of the Europa League (the stage before it actually begins properly). Since July last year both teams have scored in six of their eight European outings.

Tonight they are visited by Lyon, who arrive having lost the first leg of this playoff 2-1 in France. Hubert Fournier's lot have seen both teams score in 9/11 Europa League away games since they dropped back down to this level in 2012.  

Recommended Bet
Say 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score? @ 1.845/6 in Astra Giurgiu v Lyon

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 17pts
Returned: 16.16pts

-0.84pts

Crystal Palace: 499-1 Warnock becomes Palace boss to draw rollercoaster market to a close

Neil Warnock is back in the game!

A succession of potential managers were backed at extremely short odds to replace Tony Pulis but, finally, Neil Warnock has been named as the new manager of Crystal Palace

A drama-filled fortnight at Selhurst Park has ended with the appointment of Neil Warnock as manager for the second time. 

The former Sheffield United boss was backed at a mighty 500.0499/1 in a tumultuous market that saw a succession of candidates matched at short prices following Tony Pulis' departure from the club. 

The big damage came with Malky Mackay's near-appointment when punters were piling into the Scot at 1.011/100 with more than 20,000 traded. But revelations of sexist, homophobic and racist texts were enough to discourage the club from making the appointment. 

Tim Sherwood's prominence in the market saw him matched at a low of 1.222/9 only for the former top man at Tottenham to pull himself out of the race when it emerged that other candidates were being interviewed. 

Finally it was Steve Clarke's turn to go low when the ex-West Brom boss was widely reported to be named as the incoming manager. The Scotsman was backed at 1.364/11 this morning only for chairman Steve Parish to plump for Warnock instead. 

In charge of Palace between 2007 and 2010, Warnock has been without a club since parting company with Leeds in April 2013. The Selhurst Park outfit is the 14th side on his managerial CV. 

Palace are 2.427/5 to be relegated and 5.24/1 to finish rock bottom of the Premier League. A top 10 finish is 8.07/1 to back. 

The Next Crystal Palace Manager market was one of the most volatile in Betfair history with a succession of short prices matched. Below are a few of the notable lows. 

Malky Mackay - 1.011/100
Tim Sherwood - 1.222/9
Steve Clarke - 1.364/11
Neil Lennon - 2.915/8
Dermot Drummy - 3.02/1
Martin Jol - 3.39/4
Keith Millen - 4.216/5
Tony Pulis - 6.25/1 

Serie A Season Preview: Juventus the team to beat once more

Carlos Tevez is only one of the hot bets to be top scorer in Serie A this season

Serie A is back at last and Dave Farrar sees Roma giving Juventus a run for their Scudetto money, while he says Marco Sau can surprise Carlos Tevez in the race for the golden boot...

It seems like an age since Juventus made it three in a row, since Cesare Prandelli made us all hope and since we all thought that Ciro Immobile might be the new Toto Schillaci. He's gone to the Bundesliga, and he's not the only one to leave us, as once again we try and make sense of it all. 

The most significant departure from Serie A at time of writing is that of Antonio Conte from Juventus. Many better judges than me feel that he's just about the sharpest coach around, and his record with his beloved Old Lady was quite something.  

Conte's greatest achievement was to turn Juve back into the machine of old, and produce a team which was always comfortable in his system, whatever changes of personnel proved necessary. You knew what to expect from Juve, and retaining that level of consistency will be Massimiliano Allegri's biggest challenge.  

I'm not a huge fan of Allegri, and I doubt that he'll make Juve better, but the big question is whether they'll decline significantly enough to allow others into the title picture. With so much experience in their team, with so many leaders, and with Conte's methods instilled into them, I can't see Juve falling away to the extent that many believe they will, and I feel that they're by far and away the likeliest winners of Serie A.  

All of that will change, however, should Arturo Vidal and Paul Pogba leave the club over the next week. That would make Juve extremely vulnerable and should be taken into account as you build your Serie A portfolio.  

The biggest challenge, the only challenge, will come from Roma and Napoli. The Romans have been the sexiest betting team in Europe over the last few weeks, and they've become the ultimate wise guy horse in terms of the Outright Winner market for Serie A.

I don't like wise guy horses, as the reasons for them being punted tend to be a long way from sound: smart-alecry and a wish to appear knowledgeable take over from logic and cogent argument.  

Roma were excellent last season, make no mistake, and Rudi Garcia is a seriously good coach, but should they be trading at 3.412/5 to win Serie A?  Absolutely not. They have signed experience in Seydou Keita, Urby Emanuelson and Ashley Cole, taken a big risk with Juan Manuel Iturbe (Erik Lamela he ain't) and sold Mehdi Benatia to Bayern Munich. 

All good so far, but they have to make up SEVENTEEN points on Juventus, and that will need an improved performance on their part, and a decline from Juve. Roma CAN win it, and I fervently hope that they give my favourite player the send off that he deserves (love you, Francesco), but they're way too short and have to be swerved, especially when you consider an extra Champions League commitment and Totti's increasingly susceptible knees.

Napoli have done well to land Jonathan De Guzman and Michu, but their campaign will rest on the shoulders of Gonzalo Higuain. If he stays fit and has the season that he's capable of, then they can go close at 6.86/1, and constitute a better bet than Roma, but a so far unconvincing Rafa Benitez puts me off them, as does the Neapolitan inferiority complex which always seems to let the team down when it matters. You don't win this League if you don't believe that you can win it. 

I can't see too many surprises below the big three, with Fiorentina vulnerable to a possibly improving Inter, and Pippo Inzaghi vulnerable to unrealistic expectations at Milan. I'm delighted to have Palermo back in Serie A, if only for the madness of their President Maurizio Zamparini, and it's also a big thrill to welcome Zdenek Zeman (I bow as I type this) to Cagliari: they'll be the early season "overs" team, mark my words.  

After Immobile won last season's Capocannoniere, it's tempting to have another look away from the League's big names to find the Top Goalscorer.  

A big name normally wins it, though, and I want Carlos Tevez onside after he finished only three goals short of Immobile. Tevez was one of the success stories of last season without ever seeming to get the credit that he deserves. I think he'll have another massive season, and will also take a chance that Marco Sau can develop into the kind of consistent goalscorer that he has always promised to be. He has scored 12 and six goals in the last two seasons, and will benefit from a more attacking Cagliari approach.  

For all that's different this season, though, one thing will stay the same.  Juventus are the team to beat, and they're too big at odds against to make it four in a row. Being honest, I hope Roma, but I think Juve, and in the world of gambling, thought always beats hope.  Enjoy the season. 

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.35/4
Back Carlos Tevez to be Top Scorer @ 10.09/1
Back Marco Sau to be Top Scorer @ 30.029/1

Bradford v Leeds: Faith in Hockaday will be rewarded

Dave Hockaday's future as Leeds manager is already in doubt

Leeds are unbelievable value to win at Bradford in the Capital One Cup, argues Michael Lintorn...

Bradford v Leeds
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Bradford 2.588/5, Leeds 3.052/1, The Draw 3.55/2

It didn't take long for the air of optimism surrounding Massimo Cellino's Leeds takeover to become polluted. Even after the appointment of untested Dave Hockaday and sale of Ross McCormack, there was initial positivity: the deadwood was being ditched and exciting young players were arriving.

However, three defeats in their opening four Championship games - albeit perhaps to be expected from an overhauled squad - saw panic set in. Sitting a place above the relegation zone, there was strong speculation that Cellino would prod his famously itchy finger into action.

Eventually, he resisted, just as Fulham did when presented with a similar dilemma as to whether to sack Felix Magath following four losses to start the season. Their perseverance was rewarded with a first post-relegation victory at Brentford in the Capital One Cup second round. Now, it's Leeds turn.

Their status as 3.052/1 outsiders to triumph at the Coral Windows Stadium is disrespectful given that they haven't exited this competition to a lower-league team in 12 years, winning six of their last seven trips in it to face fellow members of the Sky-termed FL72.

Bradford memorably reached the 2012/13 Capital One Cup final, playing a key role in redefining an unduly-maligned tournament as one of the most enthralling and unpredictable on the calendar. They have lost three cup fixtures in four since though, with Huddersfield, Rotherham and Hartlepool the conquerors.

The Bantams also possess a hideous head-to-head record against Leeds, prevailing in none of their most recent 14 meetings, five of which they held home advantage in. They conceded 11 goals in the latest three.

Additionally, they are far from infallible as hosts even at League One level. Since the start of March, Stevenage, Walsall, Oldham and Peterborough have all left West Yorkshire three points better off.

Correct Score

If you wish to nail down a result, both of Leeds' wins this term have come by one-goal margins and three of Bradford's five encounters to date have delivered under 1.5 goals, so 1-0 Leeds has to be rated the outstanding option at 11.010/1.

Best Bet: Back Leeds to win @ 3.052/1
Other Recommended Bet: Back Leeds to win 1-0 @ 11.010/1

How Angel di Maria helps Manchester United

Angel di Maria is a 60 million man

So Manchester United are splashing a quite obscene amount of cash on Angel di Maria but how does he help improve the club? Alex Johnson investigates.

Manchester United's capture of Angel Di Maria for a British transfer record 60million looks like a bold move from the English giants.

Many believe the problems at Old Trafford run so deep that even Di Maria's undoubted world-class ability may not be enough to turn the Red Devils back into Premier League title contenders.

But Di Maria is a statement signing. His arrival at United's Carrington training base will give everyone a lift at a time when new boss Louis Van Gaal admits confidence has been 'smashed' by hollow performances reminiscent of last season's dour displays under David Moyes.

The United board were desperate for a superstar name to adorn the iconic number seven shirt, once the property of Bryan Robson, Eric Cantona, David Beckham and Cristiano Ronaldo - but more recently worn by Michael Owen and Antonio Valencia.

The United business model - based around replica shirt sales, merchandising, lucrative pre-season tours and TV income - demands stars - and they were falling way behind Real Madrid and FC Barcelona in that regard.

They also needed to improve the team and Di Maria will do that in a stroke. The 26-year-old won six major trophies during his four years at the Bernabeu but didn't get the recognition he deserved from the media and fans.

Despite scoring four La Liga goals and creating 17 more with assists last season, a sign that Di Maria was not entirely happy emerged when he reacted inappropriately at being booed by a section of the home support in January.

It signified a souring of the relationship between the player and the club and encouraged United to think about Di Maria as a realistic summer transfer target.

From that point onwards the Argentine's performances got better and better and culminated in him winning the Man of the Match award after inspiring Real to victory over rivals Atletico in the Champions League final.

Di Maria received his prize from former United manager Sir Alex Ferguson, acting as a UEFA dignitary that day, but never without a good word to say about the 'Theatre of Dreams' in Manchester.

The seeds were now sown and when Van Gaal arrived following his long summer in Brazil at the World Cup, Di Maria's name was already near the top of United's transfer target list.

Di Maria, nonplussed by Real's 65million recruitment of James Rodriguez from Monaco, was ready to leave Madrid but Paris Saint-Germain were keen to swoop.

PSG had already spent big on David Luiz and knew they couldn't risk falling foul of UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations again, having seen their spending formally restricted and Champions League squad reduced.

They investigated the possibility of an initial loan with a permanent deal to follow in 2015, effectively post-dating the expenditure to circumnavigate the UEFA sanction, but United could offer cash up front and also had help from a powerful agent.

Jorge Mendes - the man who brokered the deal that took Di Maria to Real from Benfica in 2009 - became the catalytic presence that paved the way for the 59.7million transfer.

Di Maria will add counter-attacking speed to an alarmingly one-paced United side that used to be famed for hitting teams on the break through Wayne Rooney and Ronaldo.

He'll also provide much-needed balance to the squad on the left after Van Gaal arrived to discover that his only naturally left-footed senior players in the post-Ryan Giggs era were Luke Shaw (injured) and David de Gea (goalkeeper).

The Dutchman now has the option to revert back to a 4-3-3 formation after experiencing teething problems in implementing the 5-3-2 system that served the Dutch so well at the World Cup.

Di Maria's adaptability gives Van Gaal the option to be flexible with his system, allowing a return to United's old cavalier style where the notion used to be 'we'll score one more than you'.

четверг, 28 августа 2014 г.

US Open Women's Betting: Back Pennetta to coast by Rogers

Can Pennetta progress into the third round? Can Pennetta progress into the third round?

The second round of the US Open 2014 concludes on Thursday and Abelson Info question whether or not more surprises are on the way...

It was certainly an interesting day in New York on Wednesday with a number of upsets, most notably both Agnieszka Radwanska and Sloane Stephens crashing out of the tournament.

Whether or not there is a repeat on Thursday remains to be seen, but some of the top seeds are back in action as they look to march on in search of lifting the final major of the season.

Two-time defending champion Serena Williams dispatched of Taylor Townsend in convincing fashion in the opening round, and she is now faced with another American in Vania King.

The world number one is aiming for her 18th Grand Slam title, and with King going 0-3 against world number ones with just two wins over Top 10 players in her entire career, this will likely be one-way traffic for the majority of the match.

Naturally, Williams is considered a huge favourite and that is reflected in her match odds, however, there is value to be had in the games market.

Meanwhile, Victoria Azarenka is also in action as she takes on Christina McHale, and judging from her struggles in the first round, this could be a tricky proposition for the Belarusian.

Azarenka needs to reach the semi-finals in order to protect her Top 20 status, but after her three-set victory over Misaki Doi, she will arguably just be aiming at making it one round at a time.

Although the head-to-head record reads 1-1, McHale's victory came by way of retirement and in the other meeting she was thrashed without recording a single game.

As a result, the American will be looking for revenge and although perhaps unlikely, Azarenka still isn't at top form and is undoubtedly prone to an upset.

Elsewhere, Eugenie Bouchard will be looking to maintain her impressive Grand Slam record this year as she takes on Sorana Cirstea, while in-form Ana Ivanovic returns to the court for her second round match with Karolina Pliskova.

However, the value bets are elsewhere as Sam Stosur faces a tricky but very winnable second round clash with Kaia Kanepi.

The Australian ace has split her previous two meetings with her Estonian rival, but she did seal a straight sets win over her in Moscow last year on this surface and after an impressive win last time out she will fancy more of the same.

Flavia Pennetta will also be confident of her chances of progressing to the third round, as the Italian returns to the scene of one of her most impressive tournament runs last year.

The world number 12 has come a long way over the last 12 months or so, and she appears to be in no mood to throw her hard work away after coming through a gruelling three-set match with Julia Goerges earlier this week.

Although Rogers will be difficult, back Pennetta to have an easier day on Thursday to take her place in the next round.

Recommended Bets:
Back Pennetta to beat Rogers 2-0 @ 2.1211/10
Back Under 16.5 Games in S Williams vs King @ 1.9210/11
Back Azarenka to beat McHale 2-1 @ 4.1n/a

Angel Di Maria: Why Man United must mimic Liverpool

How do you solve a problem like Angel Di Maria? By playing him as a central midfielder in either a diamond or a 3-4-1-2, of course

Michael Lintorn wonders if a diamond might be the best way for Man United to maximise their 177 million front five...

Angel Di Maria's 59.7 million move from Real Madrid to Man United has unsurprisingly triggered a debate as to whether he is worth it, particularly given the travails of former British transfer record holder Fernando Torres, who will surely welcome his arrival more than anyone.

The answer depends on the context. You could say that Di Maria costing a few million less than Real Madrid paid for James Rodriguez, who their fans aren't convinced is an upgrade, equals a good deal.

Alternatively, it is arguable that Man United have been held to a high fee for a player that Real were happy selling, and that it is the European champions who consequently worked wonders securing their primary summer target then making most of the money back.

The fee-speculating is a bit of a sideshow though, with the most important detail surely being that the Red Devils have done brilliantly to sign one of best footballers on the planet at a time when they can't offer Champions League football.

A top-four finish - which is now 2.166/5 following their shaky start - will stop everyone obsessing over the price tag, much as Robin van Persie's 26 title-winning goals in 2012/13 killed the thesis that they were conned in paying Arsenal 24 million for an injury-prone 29-year-old with an expiring contract.

The bigger discussion is how to fit their Argentine acquisition in alongside their four other expensive attacking tools Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney, Juan Mata and Ander Herrera (combined cost: 177 million). His versatility helps, with wing-back, winger, central midfielder and number ten all fair suggestions.

This writer suspects that the easiest way to accommodate that quintet and the other new purchases in positions that they are highly effective in is a diamond. Michael Carrick (Darren Fletcher for now) would sit behind Di Maria and Herrera, with Mata scheming between them and a front two of van Persie and Rooney. Liverpool have utilised a similar strategy to great effect.

 

If Louis van Gaal is determined to maintain his 3-4-1-2 then there is the option of those five retaining those berths (Carrick perhaps rotating with Herrera) whilst adding a third centre back in place of the deepest midfielder. Indeed, deploy Phil Jones and he can even switch between roles mid-game.

 

Images courtesy of ShareMyTactics

Few would have presented central midfield as a natural fit for Di Maria a year ago, but he produced the finest form of his career last term upon relocation there behind three offensive players (Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale), so van Gaal has to be tempted to do likewise.

Against All Odds: Corinthians to slip up at Bragantino SP

Corinthians have been better at home lately

It's Copa do Brasil action for Paul Robinson tonight as he feels that Corinthians can be opposed at the current prices for their trip to Bragantino SP.

Bragantino SP v Corinthians
Thursday August 28, 02:00 BST

Bragantino looked down and out after the first leg of their third round tie with neighbours, Sao Paulo, but a magnificent performance at Morumbi saw them come from a goal down to win the match 3-1 and progress 4-3 on aggregate.

Paulo Csar Gusmo's side are struggling in the league as the Serie B team are down in 19th place with only 16 points. It is worth noting though that they have games in hand over nearly all the clubs above them and a couple of wins would push them right up the table. A further thing to consider is that they've won their last two in front of their own fans.

Corinthians are enjoying a decent campaign after enduring a disappointing time of things in 2013. That was under the guidance of Tite and while he did enjoy some great times at the club, things started to turn a little stale.

Mano Menezes is the new man in charge and he has his team up in fourth place in Serie A and through to this round of the Copa do Brasil. 'Timo' were beaten at the weekend though and they have a big clash with Fluminense coming up on Sunday. 

The former World Club Cup champions have only won one of their last five on the road - scoring just two goals - and that includes trips to Coritiba, Bahia and Vitoria who are the bottom three in the division.

The visitors are a very short price here so with their odds trading at around the 1.4740/85 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Corinthians v Bragantino SP @ 1.4740/85

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 229 pts
Returned: 232.59 pts
P/L: + 3.59 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Capital One Cup on Betfair: More shocks as Villa and QPR crash out

Harry Redknapp can wave goodbye to the League Cup for another season after his QPR side lost 1-0 at Burton

More shocks in the League Cup and the regular progress for Arsenal in the Champions League has given Mike Norman a chance to highlight some In-Play odds matched on the Betfair Exchange...

Aston Villa and QPR are the latest victims of a second round of shocks in the Capital One Cup as they became the fifth and sixth Premier League clubs respectively to bow out of the competition.

Following defeats on Tuesday night for Leicester, Burnley, West Ham, and most famously Manchester United, Villa lost at home to League One outfit Leyton Orient on Wednesday night while QPR were defeated by League Two Burton Albion at the Pirelli Stadium.

Russel Slade's O's were matched at 15.5n/a to win the game and had an 87th minute Romain Vincelot header to thank for the victory, while 7.06/1 shots Burton saw off Harry Redknapp's men courtesy of a 77th minute Adam McGurk free-kick.

The Brewers will now entertain Brighton in the third round while Leyton Orient will host Sheffield United in an all-League One clash.

Elsewhere tonight there were comfortable 3-0 victories for Sunderland and Stoke over Birmingham and Portsmouth respectively, though the drama of the evening came at Valley Parade as Bradford came from a goal down against 10-man Leeds to win 2-1 in an entertaining Yorkshire derby.

Phil Parkinson's Bantams were matched at 55.054/1 generally, though they were matched at 130.0129/1 for small amounts to win the game before late goals by Billy Knott and James Hanson sealed the victory.

With no less than five all-Premier League ties to be played in the third round a maximum of just nine top flight clubs will progress to the last 16 in a competition that has defending champions Manchester City as the 5.85/1 favourites to lift the trophy, just ahead of Chelsea at 6.05/1, Liverpool at 7.413/2, and Arsenal at 8.615/2.

Capital One Cup 3rd Round Fixtures;

Chelsea v Bolton
Arsenal v Southampton
West Brom v Hull
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
Leyton Orient v Sheffield United
Cardiff v Bournemouth
Sunderland v Stoke
Derby v Reading
Liverpool v Middlesbrough
MK Dons v Bradford
Man City v Sheffield Wednesday
Burton v Brighton
Swansea v Everton
Shrewsbury v Norwich
Fulham v Doncaster
Tottenham v Nottm Forest

*ties to be played w/c September 22

**********

In tonight's other big game Arsenal made it through to the Group Stage of the Champions League thanks to a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Besiktas at the Emirates Stadium.

Alexis Sanchez - matched at 6.611/2 to score first - netted his first goal for the club right on the stroke of half time, denying those who had backed the 0-0 Half Time Score at just 1.021/50. The Gunners were matched at 25.024/1 in the Half Time market.

Arsene Wenger's men had to endure a nervous end to the game after Mathias Debuchy - fortunate not to concede a first half penalty - was dismissed for a second bookable offence with around 20 minutes remaining.

And only a late Demba Ba glaring miss let Arsenal off the hook as they reached the round robin stage of Europe's elite club competition for the 17th successive season. The Gunners were matched at 1.8810/11 to win the game with the 1-0 Correct Score hitting a high of 8.27/1.

Champions League Tips: Napoli to thrive at San Mames

Gonzalo Higuain's equaliser kept Napoli alive in their qualifier

Michael Lintorn fancies Napoli to prevail in tricky circumstances at Athletic Bilbao, and Leverkusen to deliver again...

Athletic Bilbao v Napoli
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Match Odds: Athletic Bilbao 2.3611/8, Napoli 3.412/5, The Draw 3.55/2

They didn't lose, but the home leg wasn't far off disastrous for Napoli. A slow start saw them trail at the break and, though their second-half rally produced a gorgeous Gonzalo Higuain equaliser, they squandered inviting chances to win, and subsequently assume a dangerous position at San Mames.

Rafael Benitez's side have to score to stand any chance of progress and may require a victory too - something that has eluded them on five of their seven prior Champions League away days. Oh, and Athletic Bilbao have been beaten just three times in 21 encounters at their new home.

Still, that is a one-in-seven defeat rate, and Napoli are entitled to believe themselves superior to 86% of the Basque club's visitors. They have been shut out in only one of their 15 previous Champions League fixtures. If they net an away goal early, Athletic's relative inexperience should begin to show.

Recommended Bet: Back Napoli to qualify @ 2.3211/8

Bayer Leverkusen v FC Copenhagen
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Match Odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.330/100, FC Copenhagen 12.5n/a, The Draw 6.411/2

Leverkusen are in this Champions League qualifier because of their work in the first part of last season (12 wins in 15) rather than the remainder (seven wins in 19), and they have opened menacingly once again under new coach Roger Schmidt, who was lured from Red Bull Salzburg.

The most famous German team never to win the Bundesliga thrashed Alemannia Waldalgesheim 6-0 away in the German Cup, triumphed 3-2 at one of the Champions League's noted "tough places to go" in the first leg of this tie then won 2-0 away to Borussia Dortmund in their league ribbon-cutter.

On each occasion, the 2002 Champions League finalists were ahead by the interval, a trait that was also true of both continental matches that they won at the BayArena in 2013/14.

Recommended Bet: Back Bayer Leverkusen to lead at half time and full time @ 1.8810/11

US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Lopez to find conditions to his liking against Dodig

Fast conditions should aid the Lopez serve today Fast conditions should aid the Lopez serve today

Tennis expert Sean Calvert enjoyed another hat trick of winners on Tuesday and he's back to sort through Wednesday's card for more betting value at the US Open...

Day three of the 2014 US Open features Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov on the schedule, as round one completes and the last-64 begins.

Tuesday's bets began in good style when Ivo Karlovic took down Jarkko Nieminen in four sets and then only got better from there, as my Cash Out tip of Borna Coric to defeat Lukas Rosol won in straight sets at 3.55n/a before Andreas Haider-Maurer finished a great day off.

The Austrian won set one against Roberto Bautista-Agut to land the 2.20 chance about him winning a set and went on to give RBA a real test over five sets.

The only poor note on the day was the less than honest assessment of his own fitness that Kei Nishikori gave, as he seemed pretty much okay in a routine win over Wayne Odesnik.

The last two remaining in my potential upsets article play today, with Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic the men in question and the Czech is due on Arthur Ashe Stadium Court in the heat of the day at 1pm local time.

It's set to be very hot again today, as it has been the last few days, and Lleyton Hewitt should give the out of form Berdych a test there, as should Marcos Baghdatis, who plays Cilic at around the same time on Louis Armstrong.

My first bet today is to side with Feli Lopez in this heat against Ivan Dodig, who I think will struggle more given his all-action, highly energetic style of play in their 11am local time clash on Grandstand.

Lopez has been in great nick this summer and he was very good on his favourite grass in a packed schedule where he picked up a fair few ranking points.

Since then the Spaniard picked up the pace again in Toronto after a month of little action and poor results and he made the last four in Canada in conditions that I would have thought too slow for him.

Dodig has beaten Lopez twice before, but both times they were on clay and on grass Lopez was a comfortable winner in a match I was courtside for in Eastbourne last season.

I also recall Dodig calling it quits in the heat in Melbourne at the start of this season and I think it will take a huge effort from him to win this today in a match that will likely go long in 30C temperatures.

Another likely struggler is Frank Dancevic, who also had major problems in the heat in Australia and he too will have to work very hard to get past the solid Joao Sousa in their 4pm local time clash on Court 5.

Dancevic was awful in the heat in Winston-Salem last week against Donald Young and I can't see his wild style of play overcoming the more measured approach of Sousa, who will be keen to justify his seeding here.

The 1.538/15 about a Sousa win looks pretty decent here if it turns out to be as warm as the forecasters say it will be.

Another seed who might, just might have a tough time could be Grigor Dimitrov, who has never won a match here and could drop a set against Ryan Harrison, but the American has been injured and I'm not sure he's up to this physically.

Recommended Bets
Back Lopez to beat Dodig at 1.674/6
Back Sousa to beat Dancevic at 1.538/15

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 1018.30

Premier League Week Two Review

Two games and two goals for Chelsea's Costa

The Premier League season is now 1/19th down, Boo... but we already have seen a couple teams that look like genuine title contenders. Alex Johnson rounds up the action from week two of the Premier League.

We are two rounds of games into the Premier League season and already some things are becoming clear.

It may be early days, but you can tell those who are looking strong, those that remain works in progress, and those set for a long and difficult campaign.

Undoubtedly the biggest game of the weekend was the heavyweight clash between last season's top two, Manchester City and Liverpool. City showed they are not going to give up their title without a fight as they overcame Liverpool 3-1 at the Etihad. Two goals from a resurgent Stevan Jovetic and one from Sergio Aguero made it two wins from two as Liverpool were forced to rue defensive errors.

It was ruthless from City as Liverpool created opportunities but failed to finish them off. With Luis Suarez gone all eyes will be on Mario Balotelli, who watched from the stands, to see how quickly he can settle in at Liverpool and help them recover from this early setback.

Chelsea took on newly-promoted Leicester and had to fight until the end to record a 2-0 win and make it two wins from two. Leicester looked good against Everton and impressed again at Stamford Bridge, battling until the end and causing some real problems to the Chelsea defence.

In the end it was Chelsea's class that shone through as Diego Costa scored for a second successive game and Eden Hazard sealed things for the Blues. Leicester will take more positives than negatives from the match - and they already look well suited to the Premier League.

The early Premier League leaders are Spurs, who continued their good start under Mauricio Pochettino with a resounding 4-0 win over QPR. It appears as if the new manager is already imprinting his fluid and attacking football philosophy on the Spurs players. Even the likes of Erik Lamela and Nacer Chadli, who floundered last season, are showing signs they can prosper under Pochettino. Things are tough for Harry Redknapp however. QPR were poor and Redknapp - who gave debuts to Leroy Fer and Mauricio Isla - is going to need to do more wheeling and dealing during the coming week.

Arsenal got themselves out of jail at Everton as late goals from Aaron Ramsey and Olivier Giroud scraped them a 2-2 draw. The Toffees took charge in the first half and showed how they continue to be a force under Roberto Martinez. Arsene Wenger won't have been impressed with how easily Everton troubled the Arsenal defence, but picking up points when not performing well is a trait required of any side mounting a serious title battle.

Premier League managers will be working right to the wire to improve their squads before the window closes, but fans can already tell where their team needs to strengthen. The goalless game between Aston Villa and Newcastle showed how both need to boost their attacking options. Newcastle looked good going forward but lacked a killer touch and were made to regret a host of missed opportunities. They are yet to score this season, while goalscoring is also something that Villa must improve. Villa have certainly improved at the back but in the absence of Christian Benteke they struggle for a reliable goalscorer in their ranks.

There was another goalless draw between two teams that remain works in progress, Southampton and West Brom. It was a dull game between two sides with new managers, and both Alan Irvine and Ronald Koeman have work to do to improve their teams. The two looked very even and need their big summer signings to quickly adapt to Premier League football. A lot of money was spent on Brown Ideye by the Baggies and he did have a chance to win the game, but needs to find his scoring boots. As for the Saints, Dusan Tadic looked decent but Graziano Pelle has yet to impress.

Sunday's battle of two teams you'd expect to see mid-table saw Hull and Stoke draw 1-1. It took a late goal from Stoke to earn their first point of the season, but they will leave Yorkshire frustrated after playing against 10 men for 75 minutes. From a Hull perspective, a point after spending the majority of the game with lesser numbers is always a positive result. Stoke are another side who lack a cutting edge - better finishing and they'd have beaten Hull. It's a common theme as every team wants a top goalscorer and there aren't that many proven strikers around - unless you really break the bank. Hull want Jordan Rhodes, but they'll have to pay big bucks for him.

Manchester United's 1-1 draw at Sunderland provided yet more proof that the Red Devils are miles away from where they want to be. While Sunderland might have different aspirations for the season compared to United, they matched Louis van Gaal's side and controlled large periods as United were in disarray at the back. It means one point from six for United and Van Gaal himself has admitted that is "not good enough". Unless something dramatic changes soon, they don't look like top-four candidates this season.

After the heroics of a shock win at Old Trafford, Swansea welcomed Burnley to the Liberty Stadium. These are the types of games Garry Monk knows Swansea have to win, and they did thanks to a goal from Nathan Dyer. It has been a tough start for Burnley and they wasted a couple of decent chances through Lukas Jutkiewicz and David Jones. At least Sean Dyche has seen his side battle hard in their opening two games, which is an encouraging sign as they look decent enough to scrap competently at this level.

A nightmare start to the season keeps getting worse for Crystal Palace. Still no replacement for Tony Pulis and they were soundly beaten by West Ham at Selhurst Park. After misfiring last week, Hammers fans will be delighted to see their side get three points and for new signing Mauro Zarate's debut goal. Things continue to be tough for Palace and this result showed they need a new manager ASAP.

Premier League: Manchester City's tranquil summer proves a successful one

Like his club, Stevan Jovetic has started the season in fine form

Andy Brassell tells us why Manchester City's relatively quiet summer in the transfer market looks set to be reap rewards with the club extending the contracts of some of their major stars and the improved form of Stevan Jovetic...

No longer are Manchester City dominating the headlines when it comes to transfer speculation. Now, the fireworks are on the pitch, with Monday night's win over Liverpool continuing what has been an engaging and satisfying beginning to the Premier League champions' title defence. The noisy neighbours, it appears, have piped down at last.

There is always a hint of concern when reigning champions have a quiet summer in the transfer market. With a position of strength the best one from which to strengthen, there is the feeling of laurels being rested upon, of decompression and dropping of intensity, and lack of a clear next objective going forward.

Witnessing the positivity of City's display against last season's runners-up, it is clear that none of these accusations could be levelled at them. Set two distinct and contrasting challenges in their pair of opening games, Manuel Pellegrini's side have responded well. They snuffed out the threat of an ambitious and new Newcastle side, before mastering Liverpool with far greater assurance than they did on The Reds' last visit to the Etihad.

Besides, City's board has hardly been idle between seasons. As Jamie Jackson pointed out in Tuesday's edition of The Guardian, City's best business was done in-house, with the contract extensions for Sergio Agero, Samir Nasri, Vincent Kompany, Edin Dzeko, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov. Their few, select signings - notably Fernando and Eliaquim Mangala - fulfil very specific needs and suggest complementarity with the existing group of players.

This suits the coach. Pellegrini, as was apparent during his best work at Villarreal and Malaga, is infinitely happier having a core of trusted players to work with than having stars thrown at him to subsequently incorporate. Clearly, the quality available to him is far greater than it was at either of those two rather more modest clubs, but the club are happy for the Chilean to create fairly similar working conditions for himself.

It works for the club too, with their initial plan to attract Pep Guardiola involving the presentation of a less sprawling, opulent squad and its replacement with a tight group. Clearly players to supplement and improve the excellent level that exists requires significant investment, which would also put City further at odds with UEFA's Financial Fair Play principles.

The rare signings have been notable, and will continue to be so. Fernando was the only new boy to start, but he showed just how vital he will be as the team's fulcrum. His accurate passing helped City grab a firm hold on midfield, and he was rarely called upon to make any interventions like the one which denied Ayoze Prez an equaliser at Newcastle last week. Fernando can do containment just as well as destruction.

Mangala will grow into being a dominating presence alongside Kompany, and Willy Caballero - one of the most accomplished goalkeepers in La Liga over the last few seasons - will look a bargain at 6m even if his only function is to keep Joe Hart performing at a high level.

Pellegrini's sanguine nature is also a key attribute in making sure City make the most of everything they have. Plenty of coaches would have ditched Stevan Jovetic after his tough opening year in English football. Instead, Pellegrini persevered, and got his immediate reward against Liverpool. The Montenegrin's regular role with City may end up being a deeper one but for now, his form means no risks need to be taken with Agero as he attains optimum condition.

City are still second favourites at 3.02/1 to retain their crown, behind Chelsea, 2.427/5. It is hard to choose between the two at the moment but Pellegrini's men make a persuasive case, and are unlikely to go out much longer in the coming weeks.

Arsenal v Besiktas: Gunners won't be denied sweet 17

Arsenal have an exemplary Champions League qualifying record

Michael Lintorn expects to seal a 17th successive Champions League group-stage appearance with a clean sheet...

Arsenal v Besiktas
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Match Odds: Arsenal 1.422/5, Besiktas 9.417/2, The Draw 5.24/1

To most clubs, a 0-0 draw away to Besiktas would represent a positive result, especially if achieved in the absence of arguably your most commanding defender, creative attacking midfielder and devastatingly quick winger while finishing with ten men.

Arsenal lack that optimistic view as this is the first time they have been given the slightest reason to doubt that they will survive a Champions League qualifier. On the six previous occasions that they had to enter this early, they won their first leg, and then the second too for good measure.

Mounting injury problems don't help. Theo Walcott is still out and though Per Mertesacker, Mesut Ozil and - despite speculation that he will be sold - Lukas Podolski are all back, Aaron Ramsey is banned, Mikel Arteta is injured and there are fears that Olivier Giroud will be out for several months.

However, they have most of their defensive heavyweights available and retain the tools for a front six of Mathieu Flamini, Jack Wilshere, Santi Cazorla, Mesut Ozil, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Alexis Sanchez, with Tomas Rosicky, Lukas Podolski, Yaya Sanogo and Joel Campbell in reserve.

In short, the Gunners shouldn't be too nervous, particularly against visitors who have lost six of their last nine European away games, all of those defeats occurring in the Europa League, with conquerors including Tromso, Stoke and Alania Vladikavkaz.

Arsenal Clean Sheet

Four of Arsenal's first-choice back five are fit - Wojciech Szczesny, Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Mathieu Debuchy - while new signing Calum Chambers has started all five matches since joining without disappointing. Kieran Gibbs' understudy at left back Nacho Monreal isn't quite the liability that some depict either.

Those players shut Besiktas out at the Ataturk Stadium in what was the north Londoners' tenth clean sheet in 13 Champions League qualifiers, and they should be trusted to deliver again at 2.111/10.

Under 2.5 goals

Arsenal's last six Champions League encounters all provided under 2.5 goals and those were against some of the most gifted attacking teams in the competition such as Borussia Dortmund, Napoli and Bayern Munich, so it is a slight surprise that unders is the outsider in this market.

This column is already forecasting that Besiktas will bring no goals to the Emirates scoreboard, and the hosts shouldn't cause it to undergo too many transformations either, having struck twice or less in each of their most recent eight home Champions League fixtures.

Best Bet: Back Arsenal to keep a clean sheet @ 2.111/10
Other Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

среда, 27 августа 2014 г.

Football Bet of the Day: Heroes have feet of clay

Nothing to see at Moses Mabhida Stadium again

Tobias Gourlay suggests a bet on one of the games from South Africa today, but probably wouldn't advise actually watching it

AmaZulu v Bloemfontein Celtic
Wednesday 18:30

Ostersunds FK 1 Sirius 1 in Sweden yesterday.

Jamie Hopcutt - there's an Englishman we can all get behind. The 22-year-old midfielder scored the home side's 71st-minute equaliser and meant everyone went home with something, including Both Teams to Score backers.

Our Scandinavian odyssey finishes on a high, but there's still work to be done. Starting in South Africa, where the Premier Soccer League started up again a couple of weeks ago.

Bloemfontein Celtic's first away match of the new season brought a 1-0 defeat to the mighty Kaizer Chiefs. It was Celtic's fifth straight road game to end with Under 2.5 Goals and, since November 2012, their 20th in 26 outings to finish that way.

This evening they visit Durban-based AmaZulu, who have a similarly proud record of sending their fans to sleep. The Heroes' first home game of the new season finished goalless and, since October 2011, 33/42 PSL games at Moses Mabhida Stadium have delivered just two goals or fewer.

Who just said 'World Cup legacy'?

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.654/6 in AmaZulu v Bloemfontein Celtic

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 16pts
Returned: 14.51pts

-1.49pts

Arsene to splash ВЈ50million on new striker or maybe just Danny Welbeck?

Is Edinson Cavani the Arsenal saviour?

Edinson Cavani or Danny Welbeck, Edinson Cavani or Danny Welbeck, Edinson Cavani or Danny Welbeck...sometimes decisions should be hard and sometimes maybe less so. Alex Johnson rounds up the latest transfer rumours from the back pages.

With Olivier Giroud reportedly out for up to three months, Arsenal appear to be ready to spend big to sign PSG's Edinson Cavani.

According to the Daily Express, the Gunners are willing to offer 50million for his services before the end of the transfer window on Monday.

Although Arsenal have the likes of Alexis Sanchez, Joel Campbell and Yaya Sanogo at their disposal, Arsene Wenger appears to want to add a world-class striker to his squad as they try to win the title this season.

The Daily Mail believe that Wenger will make a move for Manchester United forward Danny Welbeck, who could leave Old Trafford this summer, and Arsenal are hoping to tempt him away from the Red Devils.

With Robin van Persie now back to full fitness, Welbeck may consider the move as he tries to find more first-team football ahead of the European Championships in 2016.

United boss Louis van Gaal is reportedly ready to make a shock move for Liverpool midfielder Joe Allen.

Although the two Premier League rivals have not agreed a transfer in 76 years, van Gaal believes he could persuade Allen to switch allegiances.

The Daily Star believe the former Netherlands boss could make a 20million offer for Allen who is in and out of the first team at Anfield. Allen was wanted by United a number of years ago but they were put off by Swansea's asking price.

The Star are also reporting that Ajax defender Daley Blind is in talks with United. Reports suggest that former goalkeeper Edwin van der Sar is trying to help negotiate the deal which could reach 18million.

After selling Angel Di Maria, Real Madrid are looking to spend the money on Monaco forward Radamel Falcao. Le Sport 10 claim that Falcao will move to the Santiago Bernabeu despite his claim last week that he wants to stay in Ligue 1.

West Ham are reportedly willing to sell midfielder Momo Diame this summer with Queens Park Rangers currently leading the chase.

Former Hammers boss Harry Redknapp has wanted Diame for the last year, according to the Daily Mirror, and it now appears he may get his man.

The Senegalese star has found himself out of the first-team picture at Upton Park and Redknapp is eager to bolster his midfield options after two defeats so far in the Premier League this season.

Capital One Cup Tips: West Ham must wait for revenge

West Ham and Sheffield United fans are both aggrieved by the others handling of "the Carlos Tevez affair"

Michael Lintorn proposes a bet for the Capital One Cup second-round ties at Brentford, Millwall and West Ham...

Brentford v Fulham
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Brentford 2.1211/10, Fulham 3.7511/4, The Draw 3.711/4

The big surprise surrounding this fixture isn't that Brentford are near-evens favourites to beat a side who were two divisions above them last term, but that Felix Magath remains Fulham boss despite guiding his pre-season title favourites to four straight defeats and the bottom of the Championship.

One pattern that survived the Cottagers' flops against Ipswich, Millwall, Wolves and Derby is that they trailed 0-1 at the break on every occasion. That flair for assuming an early disadvantage actually traces back to their final two Premier League outings, so back Brentford to stretch it to seven games.

Recommended Bet: Back Brentford to lead 1-0 at half-time @ 4.94/1

Millwall v Southampton
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: Millwall 4.94/1, Southampton 1.845/6, The Draw 3.8514/5

There is undeniable upset potential in this match: Millwall have started 2014/15 promisingly, Southampton are still adjusting after a summer of upheaval and the Lions triumphed in the last cup meeting between the pair in 2012. However, the most attractive punting option is under 2.5 goals.

Ian Holloway has shown an interest in defensive organisation that critics felt was lacking at Blackpool and Crystal Palace, and the result has been their first five 2014/15 games all delivering two goals or less, and only seven in total. Six of Southampton's past seven showdowns were similarly goal-light.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1

West Ham v Sheffield United
Tuesday, 19:45

Match Odds: West Ham 1.594/7, Sheffield United 6.611/2, The Draw 4.47/2

The tie of the round sees West Ham and Sheffield United collide for the first time since emerging as anti-BFFs (or is it WEFs: worst enemies forever?) in 2007 due to their dispute over all things Carlos Tevez, relegation and arbitration-related. Rarely has Capital One Cup progress been such a priority.

West Ham have a great recent relationship with the Capital One Cup, making two semi-finals in four years, but overcomplicate home clashes with lower-league teams. They led at the interval in just three of their previous eight such encounters, so expect the Blades to be in the contest at half time.

Recommended Bet: Lay West Ham to lead at half time @ 2.26/5

Against All Odds: Racing Club to keep the goals flowing

Diego Milito is back in his native Argentina

Argentina has had some high-scoring affairs of late and Paul Robinson thinks we're in for another one when Arsenal travel to Racing Club in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

Racing Club v Arsenal FC
Wednesday August 27, 01:30 BST

Racing Club were tipped for success by some last season but they had a miserable time of things to finish 19th and 18th in the two semesters of the campaign. They have a new man in charge now though and they began their year with a pair of victories. The Avellaneda based club hit a blip on Saturday as they were thrashed at Tigre and they will have to show huge resolve to bounce straight back.

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in though and with five scored and five conceded, their matches this season are already averaging 3.33 goals each time. Two of the trio have gone over 3.5 goals and with Diego Milito signing in the close-season, they certainly have plenty of firepower.

Arsenal also struggled in the league last year and while they will point to the fact that they were distracted by the Copa Libertadores, they exited at the quarter-final stage of that competition. A further comparison between the pair is that they have also picked up six points from a possible nine and an away win tonight would set down a bit of a marker to the rest of the division.

As far as the goals go, Martin Palermo's men have netted four while shipping three at the other end, to give their fixtures an average of 2.33 goals per 90 minutes. Two of the three have gone over 2.5 though - including their most recent away game at Velez Sarsfield.

Three goals is easily achievable here given the teams involved, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.625/8 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Racing Club v Arsenal FC @ 1.625/8

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 228 pts
Returned: 232.59 pts
P/L: + 4.59 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

Capital One Cup on Betfair: United humiliated by League One Dons in 999/1 scoreline

It was a superb night for Karl Robinson and his MK Dons

Mike Normans brings us the details of some of the odds matched as MK Dons spring a major surprise in the second round of the League Cup by defeating Manchester United...

The Old Trafford club's difficult start to the season worsened tonight as they were thrashed 4-0 at the hands of League One outfit MK Dons in the Capital One Cup second round.

On the same day that the Red Devils signed winger Angel Di Maria from Real Madrid for a British record transfer fee of close to 60m, Louis van Gaal's much-changed side went down without a fight at the hands of Karl Robinson's battlers.

Despite a bright start from United it was the League One side that took the lead when Will Grigg - matched at 17.5n/a in the First Goalscorer market - capitalised on a horrendous mistake by Jonny Evans.

And it was the United centre back that was extremely fortunate not to concede a penalty in the second half when he appeared to handle the ball in the area.

With no European football to contend with this was the first time since 1995 that United had entered the League Cup in the second round, but few could have predicted that they would suffer a heavier defeat than they did 19 years ago when the lost to York City 3-0.

But a repeat of at least that scoreline was on the cards when Grigg scored his second of the night and just minutes later Benik Afobe - on loan from Arsenal - made it three to the home side.

United's misery was complete when some more poor defending led to Afobe scoring his second, and the MK Dons' fourth with just over five minutes remaining.

The League One side were matched at a high of 11.5n/a to win the game insdie 90 minutes, but the story of the night from an odds perspective was the huge prices matched in the Correct Score market.

The 3-0 scoreline was matched at 390.0389/1 before trading at around the 2.01/1 mark, but the 4-0 Correct Score was matched at Betfair's ceiling price of 1000.0n/a meaning it wasn't just the MK Dons players celebrating a famous victory.

Elsehwere tonight there were surprise home defeats to lower league opposition for the likes of Burnley, Leicester, and West Ham, but Premier League outfits Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Southampton, and West Brom all made it into the hat for round three.

Defending champions Manchester City are the early 6.411/2 favourites to retain the Capital One Cup, just ahead of Chelsea at 6.86/1, Liverpool at 8.07/1, and Arsenal at 9.28/1.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Goals to rain in Spain

"How many goals tonight, Rafa?"

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections...

Bet 1: River Plate (HOME) @ 1.61 (8/13) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:15 BST

River Plate are the defending champions of Argentina and they have continued that good form into this season as they've taken seven points from a possible nine. The key to their success last year was their home form as they won nine times from 10 outings, keeping a hugely impressive eight clean sheets.

Marcelo Gallardo's side have only played once in front of their own fans this term and that resulted in another win and another clean sheet. 'Los Millonarios' then took their form to new heights at the weekend by beating Godoy Cruz 4-0 in their own backyard.

Defensa y Justica were promoted from the second tier last season and they've made a solid start to life in the top flight. An opening day loss was followed up with a win at Banfield and a draw with Quilmes, but this represents a big step up in class, and it's doubtful that Dario Franco's men will be able to lay a glove on the champs.

Bet 2: Sunderland (AWAY) @ 2.05 (21/20)  

Sunderland made it all the way to the final of the Capital One Cup last year and they even took the lead against Man City before eventually losing 3-1. While they were blessed with all home ties during that run, they beat decent opposition along the way - Southampton, Chelsea and Manchester United.

Given that success, I expect Gus Poyet to take this competition seriously once again and while he will no doubt make a couple of changes to his starting XI, it should still be a strong one. 

Birmingham somehow avoided the drop to League One last season but that was largely down to their results away from St Andrews. The Blues were dire at home - just two league wins from 23 attempts - and while they have beaten Brighton there this term, they followed that up with a draw against Ipswich.

Class should prevail here and The Black Cats look like excellent value at odds-against to get the job done inside 90 minutes.

Bet 3: Athletic Bilbao v Napoli (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20) - Live on Sky Sports Interactive at 19:45 BST

Athletic Bilbao have given themselves an excellent chance of making the group phase of the Champions League following their excellent 1-1 draw in Italy. The second leg is far from a formality though and while the players were perhaps distracted by this fixture during their defeat at Malaga on Saturday, a La Liga loss isn't exactly the ideal preparation for this game.

It's the goal-side of things we're concentrating on here though and 'Los Leones' are usually good for them. While they haven't yet played a competitive match at San Mams this term, last year's data shows us that 14 of their 22 competitive games went over 2.5 goals - including five of their most recent seven.

Napoli will be desperate to get through this tie and qualify for the Champions League proper as they were desperately unlucky to not make it out of a group that contained both Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal last year.

Rafa Benitez's men did well to finish third in Serie A but they were seven points adrift of Roma in second and a whopping 24 behind Juventus. 

Interestingly though, they outscored the former by five goals over the course of the campaign and only netted three less than the latter. Their matches averaged 3.05 goals per 90 minutes, with exactly half going over 2.5.

Bet 4: Estudiantes v Boca Juniors (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 01:30 BST

Estudiantes went mightily close to topping the Torneo Final last year but two defeats and a draw in their final five fixtures dropped them down to third place behind River Plate and Boca Juniors. With only 11 goals conceded during that semester, 'Los Pincharratas' had the best defensive record in the entire division.

It hasn't been a great start to the new campaign for Mauricio Pellegrino's side as they've already fallen to two defeats but both of those came on the road, and they won their sole match in La Plata - 1-0 - meaning that seven of their last eight at home have now finished with two goals or less.

Boca Juniors slumped to another miserable defeat in front of their own fans at the weekend and club legend, Carlos Bianchi, must be on the verge of an exit from the Buenos Aires based outfit.

Strangely enough, their away form has been excellent of late as they come into this match on the back of four successive victories - three of which were to nil. Bianchi can't afford a loss here given their troubles at La Bombonera and I expect him to set his team up to keep it tight and come out with a draw at worst.

Recommended Multiple
Back River Plate @ 1.61 (8/13)
Back Sunderland @ 2.05 (21/20)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Athletic Bilbao v Napoli @ 1.95 (19/20)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Estudiantes v Boca Juniors @ 1.5 (1/2)

The Multiple pays approximately 9.65 (17/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 34 pts
Returned: 83.56 pts
P/L: + 49.56 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Back Karlovic to defeat Nieminen in battle of the veterans

Karlovic can continue Nieminen's poor record against big servers Karlovic can continue Nieminen's poor record against big servers

It was a great start to the fortnight in New York for tennis expert Sean Calvert, who made a substantial profit from his tips on Monday. He's back to pick the best bets in the US Open on Tuesday...

The US Open began in profitable fashion yesterday, as all three of my bets were winners, plus Nick Kyrgios from my 'potential upsets' article.

Novak Djokovic starred for me by winning the opener 6-1 over Diego Schwartzmann at odds of 5.04/1, while Michael Llodra was an odds-against winner and Andreas Seppi also won comfortably.

Llodra and Seppi were drifters in the market too, which made it even better and for my first bet today I have to side with Ivo Karlovic over Jarkko Nieminen.

Amazingly, for two gnarly tour veterans nearing the end of their careers this pair have never met, but the Finn does struggle against big servers and he looks like he hasn't got that much longer left on tour to me.

Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces.

His serve isn't powerful enough and second serve is weak, which puts him at a disadvantage in tie breaks and tight moments in matches and I think the 1.625/8 about Karlovic is fair enough in hot and quick conditions.

Two at bigger prices that I like today are Andreas Haider-Maurer and Borna Coric against Roberto Bautista Agut and Lukas Rosol respectively.

RBA has been in no sort of form since a very hectic summer and he may be feeling the effects of that at the moment after poor showings in both of his hard court events in North America.

Haider-Maurer sprang a surprise here last year by beating Ernests Gulbis and although he's more at home on clay he can test out RBA and see if there are any weaknesses and injury/fitness concerns there.

Rosol is on a high right now after winning the title in Winston-Salem, despite appearing to not fancy it at all in his first match, but he's never won a match at the US Open so far in his career.

Today he faces a young player I really like in Coric, who can go places and perhaps surprise a few people here with his game.

Rosol is not one to trust by any means and he looks short today to me, with the 3.55n/a about Coric a potentially decent investment on a Cash Out basis.

Elsewhere, Wayne Odesnik takes on Kei Nishikori in the only one of my 'upsets' playing today and much of the value has gone in that one, but Cash Out backers have already made some money, with Odesnik a 4.03/1 shot now from 6.05/1.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8
Back Haider Maurer to win a set at 2.26/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Coric to beat Rosol at 3.55n/a

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 984.60

Premier League: Five betting pointers from week two

Mauricio Pochettino has started well at Tottenham

It was a hugely entertaining weekend in the Premier League, and Luke Moore looks back at what can be learnt ahead of next weekend's games...

Manchester United are worth opposing until Louis van Gaal's ideas are absorbed

It's been a far poorer start to life in the Premier League for Louis van Gaal than many envisaged; talk of an instant turnaround in results has been stymied by two disappointing performances against Swansea and Sunderland. It's worth remembering that Van Gaal, by his own admission, overloads his team with new information when he starts a job and, much like a Royal Marines troop sergeant, likes to break them down and build them up again imbibed with his philosophies. Expect this to take a month or two more at least. As a result, United are worth opposing for now. 

Next up for them? Burnley away. A game that the Clarets won 1-0 last time they were in the top flight. Van Gaal's men are currently trading at 1.558/15 to win it. And if that doesn't scream 'LAY OF THE WEEKEND!' at you, nothing will.

Stevan Jovetic can be a huge player for Manchester City this season

The Montenegrin forward started just two games last season in an injury ravaged debut year for Man City, but he showed on Monday night just what an asset he can be for Manuel Pellegrini's team. With injury concerns around both Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero, it finally seems like it may be Jovetic's time to shine in the sky blue shirt and he has the pedigree and skill to contribute a fair few goals this season.

His two against Liverpool were taken nicely - the first an opportunist's strike, pouncing on the error of Alberto Moreno and the second a great third-man run followed by a scuffed finish into the roof of the net. Napoleon may have preferred lucky Generals to good ones, but at the moment it looks like Jovetic might well be both. At 7.06/1 to finish in the top four scorers in the league this season, he might be worth a poke.

Mauricio Pochettino wants his Tottenham team to attack

The way Tottenham's players have quickly adopted Mauricio Pochettino's signature style is to be applauded (although questions should be asked of their application under Andre Villas-Boas), and it shows the Argentine to be a good manager and communicator, able to get his ideas across efficiently. One thing that has been crystal clear in these first two weeks is how much he wants his side to attack, especially at home.

Harassing and harrying to win the ball back almost as soon as it was lost, when Spurs did regain possession they passed with incision and attacked with purpose on Sunday, punishing a QPR team that were simply unable to deal with their movement and ability. If the north Londoners intend on keeping this intensity and endeavour up then expect bags of goals, especially in their home games. Next up they welcome Liverpool to White Hart Lane on Sunday, a team no stranger to goals themselves, and Over 3.5 Goals is trading at an early price of 2.6613/8. It's worth some of your interest. 

Sam Allardyce deserves credit for going about his job effectively

As much as Big Sam Allardyce loves the sound of his own voice and thinks highly of himself, the way he has stuck to his guns and efficiently gone about his business as manager of West Ham deserves to be applauded. Dogged by constant speculation over his job courtesy of some less-than-honourable actions and comments from the ownership at the east London club, Allardyce's Hammers were unlucky not to get something out of the game against Spurs on the opening day and showed their quality against Crystal Palace on Saturday.

In addition to that, his signings this summer look, at this early stage, to be very astute - Mauro Zarate, Aaron Cresswell and Cheikyou Kouyate have all impressed since joining the fold at Upton Park and Allardyce's team could surprise a few people this season. A top ten finish could well be on the cards, something available to back at 2.915/8 currently.

Essentially, Big Sam is making it as hard as possible for Davids Gold and Sullivan to fire him. And we get the impression he's enjoying that very much indeed.

If Queens Park Rangers persevere with 3-5-2, there could be trouble

Harry Redknapp has come under fire for his behaviour during QPR's battering at White Hart Lane at the weekend, but it's more the way his team have set up on the field that should cause more concern for fans. Drafting in Glenn Hoddle to help his side's switch to a more fluid 3-5-2 system (a huge gamble for a team that have just been promoted), he has sought to find a formation more suited to the personnel at his disposal. 

So far, it looks to have backfired. The west Londoners looked horribly exposed against a rejuvenated Spurs side and couldn't force as much as a point against an average Hull team at home. What's more, a move to a new formation at this important stage of the season is a risk and QPR fans will remember going 16 games without a win last time they started a season in the top flight, something that ultimately cost Mark Hughes his job. It was caused at least in part by playing personnel not knowing their role within the team properly.

Redknapp would be wise to remember it as well. Their next game, at home to Sunderland, goes down as a must-win. At just 2.546/4, it would take a brave bettor to back them.

Spurs close in on one in, one out in defence plus other transfer rumours

The future of Lukas Podolski looks increasingly murky

Bonus transfer rumours this morning and Spurs are set to let go of a stalwart to bring in an exciting new talent. This and more from the fingers of Alex Johnson.

Tottenham could complete the signing of Frederico Fazio by the end of this week, according to the Daily Mirror.

Despite seeing his side keep clean sheets in their opening two league games of the season, Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino is keen to further bolster his defensive options.

With Michael Dawson poised to join Hull City, Tottenham are ready to spend 8million to bring Sevilla centre-back Fazio to the Premier League.

Meanwhile, SportinaStorm.com report that Sunderland are set to take Liverpool defender Sebastian Coates on a season-long loan deal.

The Uruguayan defender has not played for the Reds in over a year, after suffering a serious knee injury at the beginning of last season. Despite now returning to full fitness, the 23-year-old has dropped further down the pecking order at Anfield, following the arrival of Dejan Lovren.

Sunderland currently have just six senior defenders at their disposal and Coates would offer some healthy competition for places for boss Gus Poyet.

French daily L'Equipe are suggesting Marseille may add to their squad ahead of Monday's transfer deadline, with Alex Song believed to be a target for the Ligue 1 outfit.

Song looks like he may struggle for regular action at Camp Nou this term, after Barca's capture of Jeremy Mathieu and Ivan Rakitic this summer.

The former Arsenal midfielder has been a target for several Premier League teams this summer, including Liverpool and Manchester United, but France could be his next destination.

Meanwhile, the agent of Arsenal forward Lukas Podolski has denied claims that his player is currently speaking to both Juventus and Napoli about a potential move.

Podolski appears to have fallen out of favour at the Emirates and wasn't in the match-day squad for Saturday's 2-2 draw with Everton at Goodison Park.

There had been suggestions on Monday that the Germany international had flown to Italy to discuss a possible summer switch to Serie A. But agent Ali Pektas insisted: "There has been no approach from either of those clubs. The only certainty is that Lukas has a contract with Arsenal."

Finally, Southampton are looking to make a raid on La Liga champions Atletico Madrid before Monday's transfer deadline.

The Times claim Ronald Koeman has enquired about signing Belgium international defender Toby Alderweireld, although Saints face competition for his signature from French outfit Monaco.

MK Dons v Man United: First clean sheet to elude again

Man United's three-man defence remains a work in progress

Michael Lintorn thinks both teams to score is the fastest route to Capital One Cup profit at stadiummk...

MK Dons v Man United
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: MK Dons 9.417/2, Man United 1.384/11, The Draw 5.79/2

Louis van Gaal has a solid cup record, winning Dutch, Spanish and German knockout silverware while at Ajax, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, while you may also just about recall him steering Netherlands to an unexpected third-place finish at World Cup 2014.

However, there wasn't enough evidence in his first Man United two games to make a firm case for backing them at 1.384/11 to beat anyone, let alone a team three matches deeper into 2014/15 and far more adjusted to what is required of them tactically in boss Karl Robinson's fourth season in charge.

MK Dons chairman Pete Winkelman has called this "the biggest game in the club's history", but they usually thrive when forced to confront higher-division opposition.

They held FA Cup holders Wigan twice in the competition last term, conquered Blackburn, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR in 2012/13, thrashed Norwich 4-0 at Carrow Road in 2011/12 and overcame Blackpool in 2010/11. The latter trio were in the Premier League at the time of humbling.

Man United are clearly several notches superior to all of those sides and, even if fielding reserves, can introduce Shinji Kagawa, Javier Hernandez and Danny Welbeck, so should triumph, yet this writer isn't confident enough to back them at their current price.

Both teams to score

Anyone sentencing Man United to another year of misery and irrelevance after their underwhelming start risks being made to regret it - as discussed here - but van Gaal admits that it usually takes a few months for his methods to properly take effect.

The learning process is trickier for the Red Devils due to the extensive injury crisis depriving them of Michael Carrick and summer signings Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera among many others, and because they are adapting to a new shape (3-4-1-2) as well as approach.

The defensive transformation has been particularly challenging due to both fitness problems and slow transfer progress. For instance, Jonny Evans should return for his first start at MK Dons, but Chris Smalling is now sidelined and Marcos Rojo still isn't cleared to play.

Both Man United and their opponents netted in their first two Premier League fixtures, while six of their League One hosts' previous seven Capital One Cup clashes rewarded punters who backed both teams to score.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.865/6

Arsenal step up striker search and other Tuesday transfer rumours

Reports of an injury to Oliver Giroud must be worrying for Arsenal fans

Manchester United aren't done yet in terms of spending and Arsenal also have money to spend. Plenty of transfer rumours in the media today as Alex Johnson rounds up them all.

Manchester United boss Louis van Gaal will continue his spending by making a 34million for Arturo Vidal, according to the Independent.

The Juventus star has been linked with a move to Old Trafford throughout the summer and it now appears as if van Gaal is closing in on his man, with the Daily Express adding that striker Javier Hernandez could be included in the deal.

To one of United's top four rivals and Arsenal could be in the market for another forward following reports Olivier Giroud is set for a spell on the sidelines with an ankle injury.

The Frenchman picked-up the problem at the weekend and the Metro are reporting that they're interested in potential deals for Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, Paris Saint-Germain's Edinson Cavani and United's Danny Welbeck.

Sporting Lisbon midfielder William Carvalho is also interesting the Gunners, with the Express again suggesting a deal could be on the cards after the Portuguese club lowered their valuation of the 22-year-old.

Everton are another team in the hunt for a new striker and the Guardian is suggesting that they're close to signing former Barcelona and Chelsea man Samuel Eto'o on a free transfer following his departure from Stamford Bridge earlier this summer.

Moving down the table and Newcastle are set to make a late bid for Tottenham defender Michael Dawson, courtesy of Clubcall.

The England man is thought to have already agreed a move to Hull but now the Magpies look like they could disrupt the negotiations as Alan Pardew attempts to strengthen his backline.

West Ham could be about to offload Carlton Cole to Championship outfit Bournemouth for a fee of around 1million, according to a number of sources, with the former England man now appearing to be surplus to requirements following a busy summer of signings at Upton Park.

Looking abroad and the Daily Star says Chelsea forward Fernando Torres has become AC Milan's number one target as they search for a replacement for Mario Balotelli who recently joined Liverpool.

Staying in Italy and Roma are close to signing Greek defender Kostas Manolas from Olympiacos, according to Goal, with Arsenal now believed to have fallen out of the race for the 23-year-old's signature.

Finally and Fiorentina winger Juan Cuadrado remains hopeful of a move to Barcelona after telling newspaper La Nazione that "there's still time" for them to make a bid for him according to Football Espana.

вторник, 26 августа 2014 г.

US Open Women's Betting: Back Watson to end her US Open drought

British hopeful Heather Watson has shown good improvement over the summer months British hopeful Heather Watson has shown good improvement over the summer months

The first round schedule continues on Tuesday and Abelson Info take a look through some intriguing match-ups...

Defending champion and world number one Serena Williams gets her tournament underway on Tuesday, as she aims for a third successive US Open title.

Having failed at all three Grand Slams so far this year, the American ace will be desperate to claim the last major of the season and she arrives in good form after tournament wins in Stanford and Cincinnati.

Whether or not she can now finally produce that type of form across the next fortnight remains to be seen, but her focus will be on a tricky opening round clash against fellow American, Taylor Townsend.

The 18-year-old wildcard has conceded that it is a "huge honour and incredible moment" to face her idol at their home Slam, but if she isn't careful this could be all one-way traffic as she risks being overawed by the occasion and shows too much respect.

However, with Williams unsurprisingly a strong favourite in all markets, value lies elsewhere on Day 2, with Ana Ivanovic and Petra Kvitova both having difficult opening round matches to contend with.

This isn't Kvitova's favourite tournament given the fact that she has yet to reach the quarter-finals here in her career to date. Coupled with the threat that Kristina Mladenovic possesses, this has first round upset written all of it and the young French star has experience of it already this year.

Mladenovic defeated Li Na in the first round at the French Open earlier this year, and with the talent that she has, she is more than capable of adding another feather to her cap. However, she is also very unpredictable, and while we envisage her making this competitive, Kvitova should have enough to prevail.

Meanwhile, Ivanovic has looked in great form in recent weeks, and comes into this tournament as an outside bet to go all the way.
However, she must not look past Alison Riske who gave her a tough match earlier this year in their only previous meeting, and with home support backing the American, it could be another difficult evening's work for the Serbian star.

Elsewhere, Eugenie Bouchard, Sam Stosur and Victoria Azarenka will all be expected to come through their first round tests, but none offer much in the way of value in the match odds market.

As a result, Heather Watson may well be worth an investment ahead of her opener against Sorana Cirstea, with the British hopeful showing good improvement over the summer months.

With wins over the likes of Flavia Pennetta and Dominika Cibulkova under her belt, Watson has benefited from a more aggressive approach and she will look to take advantage of her opponent's lack of form and fitness after a recent shoulder injury.

Nevertheless, she has never won a match in four visits on the senior tour, but the former junior champion revealed that she isn't feeling any pressure this time round as she looks to improve on her world ranking further.

Recommended Bets

Back Watson to beat Cirstea 2-0 @ 2.226/5
Back Over 19.5 Games in Kvitova vs Mladenovic @ 2.021/1

Manchester City 3-1 Liverpool - Match Report

Stefan Jovetic impressed with two goals on Monday night

It was hyped up as the first big game of the season and Manchester City strolled it without ever hitting top gear. A worrying omen for many of the title contenders as Alex Johnson writes...

Stevan Jovetic's brace and Sergio Aguero's strike handed Manchester City a resounding 3-1 win against Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium.

Jovetic's first came late in the first half when he capitalised on some hesitancy inside the Liverpool area, before he grabbed his second of the night 10 minutes into the second half.

Aguero scored the third with his first touch after stepping off the substitutes' bench, before a Pablo Zabaleta own goal handed Brendan Rodgers' side a late consolation.

The result makes it two wins from two for City at the start of their Premier League title defence, while Liverpool slip to what is their first defeat away from Anfield in 2014.

A tight opening to the game failed to generate any clear openings although Zabaleta did have a slight chance on 13 minutes when he met a Gael Clichy left-wing cross at the back post and rifled a volley over the top.

Two minutes later Yaya Toure had a first shot on target comfortably gathered by Simon Mignolet after a quick break by City from a Liverpool corner.

Liverpool pressed on 18 minutes with Joe Allen seeing a strong effort from just outside the area blocked by the dive of Vincent Kompany.

The Reds' best chance came on 33 minutes when a Raheem Sterling ball picked out Daniel Sturridge down the left of the area. He did well to elude Kompany before smashing a fierce drive at goal from a tight angle which Joe Hart beat away at his near post.

City had not really looked like scoring until they eventually took the lead on 41 minutes.

Samir Nasri's chip into the box from the right was headed down by Dejan Lovren under pressure from David Silva and when Alberto Moreno failed to react quickly enough Jovetic pounced to smash the ball under Mignolet from close range.

Liverpool had the ball in the net on 49 minutes when Sturridge got on the end of a Glen Johnson cross from the right, but the offside flag denied the Reds striker an equaliser.

That proved costly as City went two-up on 55 minutes when Jovetic started the move inside the Liverpool half before racing into the left side of the area to meet Nasri's cross from the right and coolly hammered his effort past Mignolet.

Liverpool debutant Lazar Markovic stepped off the bench and almost created an opening for Sturridge just after the hour but Kompany put in a timely tackle to deny him a certain goal.

Aguero then came on for the injured Edin Dzeko on 69 minutes and needed 23 seconds to make the game safe with City's third of the night. Fellow sub Jesus Navas played him in with a great ball from the right flank and the Argentinian raced into the box before beating Mignolet with a composed finish.

Liverpool did pull one back seven minutes from time when Sturridge used his strength to win the ball down the right before chipping a cross into the middle for Rickie Lambert to get on the end of. The big striker got his header at goal but Hart managed to block it on the line only for the rebound to bounce into the net off Zabaleta's knee.

A minute later Lambert again got free down the left of the area but instead of going for goal he tried to tee up Sturridge and that allowed Kompany to make the clearance.

Any chance of a late comeback for Liverpool was shattered when Johnson was forced to limp off on 86 minutes to leave the Reds down to ten men for the remainder of the game as they had already used up their three substitutes.

Football Bet of the Day: FK that, say Swedish defences

Patriot Games: In Sweden goals are a source of national pride

Tobias Gourlay has been beaten up in Scandinavia and is turning to the Black and Blues for some help

Ostersunds FK v Sirius
Tuesday 18:20

Landskrona 2 Degerfors 0 in Sweden yesterday.

A goal short for our purposes. And that'll be what's really stopping Degerfors from sleeping tonight. Not that they lost and are now just a couple of places clear of the relegation zone, but that they failed to nail a consolation that would have meant so much to us. 

Just as we looked to the skies in despair, we spotted Sirius. Up the other end of the Superettan, the fifth-placed Black and Blues are enjoying a fine campaign. Only promoted last year, they've put together the best away record in the league (W6-D2-L2), scoring more road goals (19) than anyone else and hitting the back of the net at least once in 8/10.

And all of this while keeping only one clean sheet themselves.

Next up they visit fourth-placed Ostersunds FK, who have scored in 10/10 at the Jamtkraft Arena this term and seen goals at both ends in 19/25 there under current boss Graham Potter (that's right, York City fans).

May they both reach for the stars this evening.

Recommended Bet
Say 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score? @ 1.645/8 in Ostersunds FK v Sirius

2014 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 15pts
Returned: 12.87pts

-2.13pts

US Open Women's Betting: Kirilenko an early test for Sharapova

Can Kirilenko pull off a shock at Flushing Meadows? Can Kirilenko pull off a shock at Flushing Meadows?

The US Open 2014 gets under way on Monday and Abelson Info delve into the first round clashes to find value bets...

It promises to be a thrilling fortnight of action in New York, and the tournament has wasted no time in providing us with some interesting match-ups.

Among the stand-out meetings in the opening round is fifth seed Maria Sharapova's encounter with compatriot Maria Kirilenko, although the latter has struggled mightily in recent times.

Kirilenko has been sidelined with a knee injury which has seen her fall out of the Top 100, and compare that with Sharapova who is top of the Road to Singapore leaderboard and it would suggest that this is going to be one-way traffic.

However, Kirilenko has the experience of beating Sharapova at a Grand Slam previously and she will be desperate to prove a point in New York.

While victory would silence those doubting her ability to make a comeback, it would also go some way in boosting her own confidence. Nevertheless, with Sharapova in such good form coupled with the fact that Kirilenko is still short of her best, the former should justify her short odds (1.091/11).

Elsewhere, Venus Williams is also in action on the opening day as she takes on fellow veteran Kimiko Date-Krumm.

The 43-year-old Japanese ace has pushed Williams to the limit in two of their previous three meetings, taking her the distance in some gruelling clashes. However, the American has looked great in recent months, improving her record for the year to 24-11 and picking up a title along the way.

As a result, she should come through relatively untroubled in a battle of the veterans, while the likes of Simona Halep, Agnieszka Radwanska and Sabine Lisicki all have favourable first round draws and will fancy their chances of progressing with minimal fuss.

Meanwhile, Sara Errani has a tricky start to the tournament against Kirsten Flipkens, but despite the fact that this isn't the Italian's most favoured surface, she has had little trouble in dispatching her Belgian rival in the past.

We envisage the 13th seed coming through in straight sets, and it could be a similar story for fellow Italian, Camila Giorgi, who is fresh from her semi-final run in New Haven and will look to make short work of Anastasia Rodionova.

Elsewhere, Sloane Stephens and Caroline Wozniacki will be expected to defeat Annika Beck and Magdalena Rybarikova respectively.

Wozniacki in particular comes into this tournament in good form, and it will be bitterly disappointing for the Dane if she suffers any early slip-ups.

However, things may not be so simple for Jelena Jankovic, as despite leading her fellow Serbian Bojana Jovanovski in their head-to-head record, her countrywoman has caused her problems on this surface before.

Nevertheless, that was four years ago now, and although it may be more competitive than many believe, Jankovic is another who can justify a short price.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 18.5 Games in Sharapova vs Kirilenko @ 2.1211/10
Back Errani to defeat Flipkens 2-0 @ 2.427/5

US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Seppi to overcome Stakhovsky test

Will Seppi be celebrating again today? Will Seppi be celebrating again today?

Play begins in the 134th US Open on Monday, with Andy Murray among the names in action on day one. Sean Calvert looks at the best bets on Monday...

The weather is set fair and we're all ready to go in New York at the 2014 US Open, with 56 matches on the card today - 24 in the men's singles first round.

Murray is set to play at around 6pm UK time against Robin Haase and no doubt the pair will remember their 2011 clash here when the Dutchman went two sets up and was beaten.

Haase isn't in that sort of form these days and it's difficult to see anything other than a Murray win here, with Haase having lost nine of last 11 matches on hard courts in the last 12 months.

He might show up a bit better here and the +8.5 games is a consideration, but I'd be surprised if Haase were able to muster a set today.

Stan Wawrinka might find the going tougher and he's one of two of my 'five potential upsets' that play today, along with Nick Kyrgios.

Solid-looking bets today for multiple backers include Tommy Robredo, Leo Mayer, Milos Raonic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Philipp Kohlschreiber, but none offer much of a reward in the match odds markets.

At more palatable odds it's worth backing Andreas Seppi to get past Twitter legend Sergiy Stakhovsky in their 4pm clash on Court 7.

Stakho, when he's not attempting to solve the world's problems in 140 characters or fewer, has a poor record in New York, with a 3-7 overall mark and 2-5 in the main draw.

He pulled out of Winston-Salem after losing in round one of Atlanta to Robby Ginepri and in Washington DC to Malek Jaziri and Seppi will be really disappointed if he doesn't manage to win this after an okay showing last week.

The Italian played well to defeat Nicolas Mahut there and didn't look too interested after that against Yen Hsun Lu in Winston-Salem, but he should be up for this and he seems a decent price at 1.584/7 here.

I'm also going to take a chance on French veteran Michael Llodra in his last major tournament before retirement at the end of the season and after being a controversial choice for a wild card here he looks to have a great chance as underdog today.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver has only ever won two matches at Flushing Meadows and he didn't bother with any hard court preparation, as usual, with his most recent hard court match coming in Miami back in March.

Llodra's form has been poor, hence the price, but he has beaten DGT in both prior meetings and surely he'll be more motivated to at least win one match in his last slam.

Mika has at least been playing on hard courts, but probably with little passion in his final months on tour, and he's been complaining of an elbow injury in recent weeks - all of which makes Llodra the outsider today.

He's always played when he feels like it though and with the onset of slow surfaces he's been forced to bide his time and wait for opportunities in suitable conditions to come along.

The difference between this pair should be Llodra's desire not to flop in his last slam and the Spaniard's desire to pocket a juicy $35,754 for turning up in round one.

For those staying up all night world number one Novak Djokovic should crush 5'7" Diego Schwartmann and either the unders or set one correct score of 6-1 or even 'yes' in 'will there be a 6-0 set?' look good options there.

Recommended Bets
Back Seppi to beat Stakhovsky at 1.584/7
Back Llodra to beat Gimeno-Traver at 2.466/4

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Djokovic to win set one 6-1 at 5.04/1

Plus already advised potential upsets

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 920.60

Will Bayern Munich canter to another Bundesliga title?

Bayern finally signed Robert Lewandowski this summer

Bayern Munich look about as red hot a favourite as you can get but Alex Johnson looks at the other possible winners in the Bundesliga.

The 2014-15 Bundesliga season is hopeful of being a memorable campaign following the national side's wonderful win in the World Cup.

Germany's first world crown in 24 years has led to a commercial dream for the league clubs. What the Bundesliga doesn't need is a season like the last, when Bayern dominated from start to finish and whilst the side from the Allianz-Arena can take nothing for granted, they will be favourites.

The number one sport in Germany has raised expectations and in turn should deliver a fascinating season as the national administrators are expecting a closer battle than the previous campaign. Whether that holds true or not, will remain to be seen.

The national champions are Bayern Munich and have been for the past two seasons, their nearest challengers will be Borussia Dortmund, although most pundits are predicting a third consecutive title for Bayern.

The Bavarian club are Germany's record holding club with 23 titles and whilst they are the richest in terms of commercialism, they, like most other big clubs, come under the most pressure.

Can Dortmund edge out Bayern this season?

Bayern coach Pep Guardiola is clearly worried about the challenge from Jurgen Klopp's side in their pursuit of that triple crown, and his comments have expressed his concern. "It will be a challenge to play better than Borussia Dortmund this season," he recently said.

Borussia Dortmund have already beaten Bayern Munich only last week in the DFL-Super Cup, winning 2-0, a preview for the forthcoming season perhaps. Bayern were dominated from start to finish in the game, with worse news seeing their Spanish midfielder, Javi Martinez, stretchered off with a serious knee injury which may keep him out of action for some time.

The injury to Martinez has dealt a blow to Guardiola's new system of 3-4-3, having preferred 4-3-3 when he was coach at Barcelona, this was a move towards playing with Martinez as a centre-half, but those plans have now been put in the pending tray.

Bayern will also miss Thiago Alcantara for at least another couple of months, the midfielder is still out of action following a knee injury sustained in March.

Dortmund defeated Bayern in the equivalent fixture last term, although it didn't stop the Bavarian club winning the double last season. Klopp's side have been the most successful challengers to the Munich giants in recent seasons. These two clubs have won the Bundesliga between them thirteen times out of the last sixteen seasons, Bayern alone winning ten of those.

Bayern Munich's players featured heavily in the German national team and with such internationals come with a physical price. This is where Dortmund may have the added advantage.

There is of course a feeling in the Die Bayern camp that other clubs want to make it as difficult as possible for them to succeed this season. Bayern's hierarchy wanted the season to start later than the scheduled August 22, so that it gave all the World Cup players a well earned rest. This was overruled by the other clubs and thus adding to the anti-Munich conspiracy.

There is a slight twist this season though between these two clubs, in the last four seasons, Robert Lewandowski has scored a huge 74 goals in 131 games for Borussia Dortmund. In the summer, the Polish striker signed for Bayern Munich. The 26-year-old is considered in some eyes as the best striker in Europe at present, high claims indeed. Dortmund however have responded by strengthening well in that department, signing Ciro Immobile from Italian club Torino and Adrian Ramos from fellow Bundesliga club, Hertha Berlin.

Bayern have been a little bit naughty in this transfer window with Chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge publicly stating the buy-out clause of Borussia Dortmund's Marco Reus, in the hope of weakening his own club's league rivals. You can see how key Reus was to Dortmund though with the fact that he contributed to 30 of Dortmund's 80 league goals last season, his directness and electric pace will be crucial to Jurgen Klopp's men mounting a title bid this season.

Will there be a challenge from outside of the top two in Germany?

Schalke finished in third place last season and this season they have an excellent crop of youngsters to attempt to break the duopoly of Bayern and Dortmund. The Royal Blues are trying to catch their Ruhr area neighbours, Borussia Dortmund, and they are gaining consistent performances in the Champions League, even reaching the semi-final in 2011. The Bundesliga needs further clubs to certainly keep up with the top two.

The club from Gelsenkirchen has invested wisely and brought in experience with Sidney Sam from Bayer Leverkusen. They have managed to keep key young midfielder, Julian Draxler, and also centre-half, Benedikt Howedes, those two will be paramount if Schalke have success this season. Schalke will require more from their established stars, Kevin Prince-Boateng and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Boateng was sent home from the World Cup in disgrace following altercations with the Ghana management, ironically his half-brother Jerome enjoyed World Cup success with Germany.

The other club that consistently reaches the Champions League positions, but never moves further is Bayer Leverkusen. Under new coach, Roger Schmidt, they are to adopt a new all-guns-blazing attacking style and with Stefan Kiessling, they already have a more than decent enough striker at the club. Depending on how this new policy works out, the pressure will be on the defence to keep goals out. Schmidt has brought in Tin Jedvaj on loan from Roma to help out as cover. The 18-year-old Croatian has only made a couple of appearances at the Stadio Olimpico, so will find it tough in only his second season in professional football.

Bayer's start to the league season is a tough one as they face Dortmund at the Signal Iduna Park. This could prove an early indication as to how either club can fare this season.

Dortmund have a real chance to put one over the champions this time around, they started last season in real good form and went on to win nine of their first eleven matches before injuries to key players in Neven Subotic, Mats Hummels, IIkay Gundogan, and Sven Bender.

They stuttered a little, before a positive finish at the end of the season meant second place and once again a place in the Champions League.

The Super Cup win was done with a 4-2-3-1 formation with Immobile as the lone striker. In the other pre-season matches, Dortmund lost 4-0 to Liverpool in a game which Jurgen Klopp described as "the opposite his side wish to play".

Bayern have had a poor pre-season, but considering they didn't use most of their World Cup-based squad on the short tour of the US, they embarrassingly lost to an MLS all-stars XI in Portland, albeit with a B-team.

Bayern will face Wolfsburg in their opening match on Friday, there is little to suggest that Bayern won't gain maximum points, however a slow start and they may well be playing catch up, and that won't be good towards the season end for their star players.